coit
Bullseye
- Joined
- Nov 29, 2007
- Messages
- 93,399
Some of the polls are closed so I'll start tallying the results here.
Alcorn St: 0.970
Tulane: 0.892
ND: 0.631
Duke: 0.821
UNC: 0.748
Clem: 0.547
Pitt: 0.744
FSU: 0.584
UVA: 0.805
VT: 0.659
Mia: 0.639
Dwags: 0.626
For those teams we played last year, here are the change in probabilities from the 2014 poll to the 2015 poll.
Tulane: +0.054
Duke: +0.077
UNC: +0.067
Clemson: +0.100
Pitt: +0.014
UVA: -0.010
VT: +0.183
Miami: +0.186
Dwags: +0.302
So, a unanimous increase in confidence this year over last. Oddly, Pitt is showing the smallest increase in confidence by a fairly significant amount.
Here's a ranking of our opponents from least to most confident.
1. Clemson
2. FSU
3. UGA
4. ND
5. Miami
6. VT
7. Pitt
8. UNC
9. UVA
10. Duke
11. Tulane
12. Alcorn St
If you remove the 1.0 votes, UGA draws essentially even with Clemson and ahead of FSU.
In looking at the distributions for the polls, there are a inordinate number of 1.0 votes for games like ND, Duke and UGA, and maybe slightly higher 1.0 votes for games like UNC, Clemson, and VT. However, zeroing out the 1.0 votes entirely still doesn't give us a game where we are less than a coin flip to win.
These results aren't going to pass a normality test or anything but fun nonetheless.
Through the first 7 games, we are about 0.136 to be undefeated.
Through the first 9 games, we are about 0.064 to be undefeated.
Through the first 11 games, we are about 0.027 to be undefeated.
Through the regular season, we are about 0.017 to be undefeated.
September 29th Update - Through 4 Games:
Expected wins: 3.314
Actual wins: 2
Win Deviation: -1.314
Alcorn St: 0.970
Tulane: 0.892
ND: 0.631
Duke: 0.821
UNC: 0.748
Clem: 0.547
Pitt: 0.744
FSU: 0.584
UVA: 0.805
VT: 0.659
Mia: 0.639
Dwags: 0.626
For those teams we played last year, here are the change in probabilities from the 2014 poll to the 2015 poll.
Tulane: +0.054
Duke: +0.077
UNC: +0.067
Clemson: +0.100
Pitt: +0.014
UVA: -0.010
VT: +0.183
Miami: +0.186
Dwags: +0.302
So, a unanimous increase in confidence this year over last. Oddly, Pitt is showing the smallest increase in confidence by a fairly significant amount.
Here's a ranking of our opponents from least to most confident.
1. Clemson
2. FSU
3. UGA
4. ND
5. Miami
6. VT
7. Pitt
8. UNC
9. UVA
10. Duke
11. Tulane
12. Alcorn St
If you remove the 1.0 votes, UGA draws essentially even with Clemson and ahead of FSU.
In looking at the distributions for the polls, there are a inordinate number of 1.0 votes for games like ND, Duke and UGA, and maybe slightly higher 1.0 votes for games like UNC, Clemson, and VT. However, zeroing out the 1.0 votes entirely still doesn't give us a game where we are less than a coin flip to win.
These results aren't going to pass a normality test or anything but fun nonetheless.
Through the first 7 games, we are about 0.136 to be undefeated.
Through the first 9 games, we are about 0.064 to be undefeated.
Through the first 11 games, we are about 0.027 to be undefeated.
Through the regular season, we are about 0.017 to be undefeated.
September 29th Update - Through 4 Games:
Expected wins: 3.314
Actual wins: 2
Win Deviation: -1.314
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