2015 Preseason Probability Poll Results

Bumped to add the FSU and UVA results. The UVA game is the first game with a negative year over year confidence, although in reality it is essentially a wash.

Also this game appears to call out the Duke results as being flawed. Certainly we should be more confident in UVA victory than a Duke victory. Or am I missing something?
 
It's too bad there's no easy way to re-poll after each game (like a Survey Monkey Poll). Would be interesting to see if it goes up or down after a game.
 
TechinItEasy said:
Reputation bias. Emotionally people still think Duke sucks and that C'ville is cursed.
Click to expand...


Reputation bias is AKA the inductive method or "naturalism." Not absurd to recognize a pattern whether or not you think you can explain it away.


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coit said:
Bumped to add the FSU and UVA results. The UVA game is the first game with a negative year over year confidence, although in reality it is essentially a wash.

Also this game appears to call out the Duke results as being flawed. Certainly we should be more confident in UVA victory than a Duke victory. Or am I missing something?
Click to expand...

CPJ/Cuttcliffe revenge factor.
 
Just updated the OP through the first 11 games.

VT and Miami represent our largest confidence increases, each with over a 0.18 increase. UGA polling will have the largest increase in confidence, over 0.25 increase most likely.

Also of note, even throwing out all of the 1.0 votes, we still have a greater than 0.5 confidence in each and every game. I wonder when that level of overall confidence last occurred?

The UGA game isn't finished polling, but we have a bunch of votes, so here's a ranking of our opponents from least to most confident.

1. Clemson
2. FSU
3. UGA
4. ND
5. Miami
6. VT
7. Pitt
8. UNC
9. UVA
10. Duke
11. Tulane
12. Alcorn St


If you remove the 1.0 votes, UGA draws essentially even with Clemson and ahead of FSU.
 
18in32 said:
Reputation bias is AKA the inductive method or "naturalism." Not absurd to recognize a pattern whether or not you think you can explain it away.


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Click to expand...

Never said it was absurd or unnatural. Just calling it what it is. Thanks for providing the more technical term.
 
adding up the probabilities, the expected result looks to be 8-3 through first 11 games
 
coit said:
Well the polls last year weren't nearly as optimistic.
Click to expand...
Shocking? There were calls for the coach's head, followed by a year of eleven wins, a division title, wins over Miami, VPI, Clempsen, and Georgia, and an Orange Bowl victory. It would be surprising if the results weren't optimistic.
 
OP updated to put in final numbers. Thanks to everyone for playing along this year.

We are indeed a more confident bunch!

Go Jackets!
 
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