2016 Preseason Probability Poll Results

[coit]

40% seems generous. ESPN has us at 20%. Thats still pretty good against a presumed playoff team.

If you remove the guys that voted 0.9 or 0.8, you get 32%. The median was at 0.3.

 

[floridajacket]

40% seems generous. ESPN has us at 20%. Thats still pretty good against a presumed playoff team.

Money line is -340/+285, which works out to ~76% Clemson win probability.

Not that I want a moral victory, but a -9 line for the game makes me optimistic for the rest of the season. If we lose by 9 and Clemson hasn't backtracked much from last year, that looks really good for the rest of the season.

 

[GTCrew4b]

This is pretty neat. I should have answered more polls...

(no sticky though, we got enough already)

The only downside will be when the preseason polls are able to actually predict season results prior to the games taking place. And then we will REALLY start having attendance problems.

 

[Dirty Jacket]

There's got to be a better way to do this. I don't want to live in a world where 87% could be 96%.

Did you even go to Tech bro? In my world a 37% was a 87% and ranked in the top 5%

 

[Fredge]

All these percentages......

 

[ThisIsAtlanta]

Did you even go to Tech bro? In my world a 37% was a 87% and ranked in the top 5%

 

[coit]

Our Week 4 loss has decreased the 0.390 poll result by 0.390. The total expected win value is now 7.69.[/QUOTE]

 

[coit]

Our Week 5 loss has decreased the 7.69 poll result by 0.462. The total expected win value is now 7.23.

To this point in the season, the expected win total is essentially what it was to start the season. So we are tracking right along with everyone's expectations so far.

 

[beej67]

Our Week 5 loss has decreased the 7.69 poll result by 0.462. The total expected win value is now 7.23.

To this point in the season, the expected win total is essentially what it was to start the season. So we are tracking right along with everyone's expectations so far.

Thats the greatest value of the preseason Stingtalk poll.

 

[coit]

Our Week 6 loss has decreased the 7.23 poll result by 0.585. The total expected win value is now 6.65.

For the first time this season, our expected win total has dropped below the preseason value.

 

[coit]

Our Week 7 win has increased the 6.65 poll result by 0.262. The total expected win value is now 6.91.

 

[beej67]

Bump.

We're now dead on our expected value for the season, right?

 

[coit]

Bump.

We're now dead on our expected value for the season, right?

Yep, pretty much.

Our Game 8 win has increased the 6.91 poll result by 0.333. The total expected win value is now 7.24.

 

[ThomsonJacket]

Numbers are fun

Beestorms Moms basement

 

[coit]

Our Game 9 loss has decreased the 7.24 poll result by 0.537. The total expected win value is now 6.70.

 

[ramblinwise1]

thats .7 too much

 

[coit]

thats .7 too much

It can happen.

 

[coit]

Our Game 10 win has increased the 6.70 poll result by 0.457. The total expected win value is now 7.16.

 

[coit]

I've added a tab to the spreadsheet in the OP showing the predictions from those of us who picked every game.

Here's a list of those who are in the running.

8 Wins (8.49 - 7.5):

@WracerX
@gth874t
@Akinji07
@gtleviathan
@sowegajacket
@ramblin' wagon
@GT_LUVER
@jacket67
@77GTFan

7 Wins (7.49 - 6.5):

@coit
@nytech
@atlanta jacket
@GT18YJjr.
@Buzz_PhD

6 Wins (6.49 - 5.5):

@gtfan1147
@05GTCorndog
@T-Bone Burdell
@Ed Sawyer

 

[gth874t]

Good stuff, thx for the update.

Has anyone correctly predicted our schedule up to this point?