2016 Preseason Probability Poll Results

coit said:
Our Game 9 loss has decreased the 7.24 poll result by 0.537. The total expected win value is now 6.70.
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ramblinwise1 said:
thats .7 too much
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coit said:
It can happen.
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gth874t said:
Good stuff, thx for the update.

Has anyone correctly predicted our schedule up to this point?
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Funny you should ask!

Using a criterion of >0.5 = a win prediction and 0.5 or less equalling a loss, two people are 10-0 so far.

Me and you!!
 
Our Game 11 win has increased the 7.16 poll result by 0.311. The total expected win value is now 7.47.

An update to the predictions. Those who picked us to win 6 are now out.

8 Wins (8.49 - 7.5):

@WracerX
@gth874t
@Akinji07
@gtleviathan
@sowegajacket
@ramblin' wagon
@GT_LUVER
@jacket67
@77GTFan

7 Wins (7.49 - 6.5):

@coit
@nytech
@atlanta jacket
@GT18YJjr.
@Buzz_PhD


And, @gth874t and I are still perfect on the season at 11-0. The winner will be decided in this week's game, as he predicted a win and I, sadly, predicted a loss. Here's hoping I finish 11-1.
 
Another fun fact is that we have beaten 7 of the bottom 8 teams as ranked by our average win probabilities. And certainly the Pitt game could've gone our way easily.

Ranking of opponents by probability:

1. Clemson (L)
2. Miami (L)
3. UGA
4. UNC (L)
5. VT (W)
6. Pitt (L)
7. Duke (W)
8. BC (W)
9. UVA (W)
10. Vandy (W)
11. Ga Sou (W)
12. Mercer (W)
 
coit said:
Our Game 12 win has increased the 7.47 poll result by 0.528. The total expected win value exactly matches our actual win total at 8.00. Science!

And the winners are those who picked in the 8-win band. These fine gentlemen are:

@WracerX
@gth874t
@Akinji07
@gtleviathan
@sowegajacket
@ramblin' wagon
@GT_LUVER
@jacket67
@77GTFan

And, @gth874t finished the season with a perfect 12-0 record. As I indicated last week, I am happy to finish 2nd at 11-1.

Fun season!
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Nice work to the group of folks who got the 8-win band! Still can't believe I got all 12 right. Hats off to @coit for setting this up, hope you do it again next season!
 
gth874t said:
Nice work to the group of folks who got the 8-win band! Still can't believe I got all 12 right. Hats off to @coit for setting this up, hope you do it again next season!
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My goal this season had been to have an incentive for folks to vote seriously instead of just load up with the highest or lowest scores. Hopefully this will motivate people to try to be a little more accurate.

I forgot to give a special shoutout to @Akinji07 for his picks working out to be exactly 8.00. Remarkable!
 
I will take credit for only one thing, and that is re-energizing our defense with my fire Ted Roof thread. Had it not been for my constant bitching about Teddy and the defense, they might not have felt the fire under their asses to play as well they have been playing since the North Carolina game.
You're all welcome.
 
coit said:
Well, keep in mind that the maximum possible value is 0.9. If you take the top value as 0.95 the result is 0.916. If you take the top vote as 1.0, the result is 0.96.
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I know I'm responding to a post from August, but shouldn't there be a 1.0 option? Because if I believe Tech had a 95% chance to win, 1.0 is a much more accurate representation than 0.9.
 
johncu said:
I know I'm responding to a post from August, but shouldn't there be a 1.0 option? Because if I believe Tech had a 95% chance to win, 1.0 is a much more accurate representation than 0.9.
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I think 1.0 as a probability is not valid, since nothing in life is a sure thing.
 
I will take credit for only one thing, and that is being a lightning rod for the petty and wrathful college football gods. They're out to get me, and if I dance on the coals just the right way, it keeps their gaze from all of you.
You're all welcome.
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
I will take credit for only one thing, and that is being a lightning rod for the petty and wrathful college football gods. They're out to get me, and if I dance on the coals just the right way, it keeps their gaze from all of you.
You're all welcome.
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I just noticed that you were only 0.05 above the 8-win band. Almost right on!
 
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