coit
Bullseye
- Joined
- Nov 29, 2007
- Messages
- 91,114
Here's the result of the 2021 Probability Polls. I am comparing our voting results to the ESPN preseason probabilities and to our 2019 polls for common opponents. Interesting that votes were more pessimistic for our first two opponents that the remainder of the schedule.
Total: 6.577 wins (-0.34 wins from 2019 predictions)
Adjusted total thru Game 1: 5.748 wins (-0.829)
Adjusted total thru Game 2: 5.954 wins (+0.206)
Adjusted total thru Game 3: 5.720 wins (-0.234)
Adjusted total thru Game 4: 6.305 wins (+0.585)
Adjusted total thru Game 5: 5.712 wins (-0.593)
Adjusted total thru Game 6: 5.961 wins (+0.249)
Adjusted total thru Game 7: 5.380 wins (-0.581)
Adjusted total thru Game 8: 4.775 wins (-0.605)
Adjusted total thru Game 9: 4.335 wins (-0.440)
Adjusted total thru Game 10: 3.731 wins (-0.604)
Adjusted total thru Game 11: 3.385 wins (-0.346)
Ranking of toughest opponents by probability:
1 Clem : 0.234 L
2 ND : 0.346 L
3 UGA : 0.385
4 UNC : 0.415 W
5 Miami : 0.440 L
6 UVA : 0.581 L
7 Pitt : 0.593 L
8 BC : 0.604 L
9 VT : 0.605 L
10 Duke : 0.751 W
11 Ken St : 0.794 W
12 N Ill : 0.829 L
Here's the complete voting spreadsheet. I'll be tracking each voters record through the season as described in THIS thread if you voted for all 12 games.
LINK TO SPREADSHEET
Total: 6.577 wins (-0.34 wins from 2019 predictions)
Adjusted total thru Game 1: 5.748 wins (-0.829)
Adjusted total thru Game 2: 5.954 wins (+0.206)
Adjusted total thru Game 3: 5.720 wins (-0.234)
Adjusted total thru Game 4: 6.305 wins (+0.585)
Adjusted total thru Game 5: 5.712 wins (-0.593)
Adjusted total thru Game 6: 5.961 wins (+0.249)
Adjusted total thru Game 7: 5.380 wins (-0.581)
Adjusted total thru Game 8: 4.775 wins (-0.605)
Adjusted total thru Game 9: 4.335 wins (-0.440)
Adjusted total thru Game 10: 3.731 wins (-0.604)
Adjusted total thru Game 11: 3.385 wins (-0.346)
Ranking of toughest opponents by probability:
1 Clem : 0.234 L
2 ND : 0.346 L
3 UGA : 0.385
4 UNC : 0.415 W
5 Miami : 0.440 L
6 UVA : 0.581 L
7 Pitt : 0.593 L
8 BC : 0.604 L
9 VT : 0.605 L
10 Duke : 0.751 W
11 Ken St : 0.794 W
12 N Ill : 0.829 L
Here's the complete voting spreadsheet. I'll be tracking each voters record through the season as described in THIS thread if you voted for all 12 games.
LINK TO SPREADSHEET
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