4th down we went for

cyptomcat

cyptomcat

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I am curious, but was there any reason for the 4th down we went for near the 20 yard line? It was something like 4 and 5. We were up 14-0. I think CPJ is great but I didn't understand that one. Was it just because we were feeling good about that one? Or CPJ likes playing it wild/unorthodox at times?
 
It was fourth and 3 at the 25. CPJ had confidence that we could pick up the requisite 3 yards, and he was right. It's a refreshing philosophy...we have enough people who don't have enough confidence in their offense to get one or two yards on fourth down. The only question is when he will start going for two after TDs instead of one :).
 
gth816f said:
It was fourth and 3 at the 25. CPJ had confidence that we could pick up the requisite 3 yards, and he was right. It's a refreshing philosophy...we have enough people who don't have enough confidence in their offense to get one or two yards on fourth down. The only question is when he will start going for two after TDs instead of one :).
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I think that sums it up. Could have gone for 3, but he felt comfortable that we could get three yards... I'm fairly sure he didn't expect 25 yards.:D
 
It also would have been around a 40 yard field goal. Blair missed a 37-yarder later in the game. I don't think we have a lot of confidence in the FG unit right now.
 
It might be a lack of faith in the FG unit. Or it might be extra faith in our offense.

What I like about it is the amount of pressure it puts on the other guy's defense. I mean our offense is just explosive.
 
ASimPerson said:
It also would have been around a 40 yard field goal. Blair missed a 37-yarder later in the game. I don't think we have a lot of confidence in the FG unit right now.
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Could be wrong, but I thought that was Yahiaoi (sp?).
 
The miss was MY, Jaybo also said that the third down play would have gone for a score if he had read it right. I think we were just real confident that we had them off balance.
 
Thats the kind of "PLay to win" mentality that I like in Johnson. Not the "play not to lose" Mentality of Chan. He would of kicked it for sure.
 
CPJ has said he looks at these situations differently than most.

He goes with his gut, not necessarily what the "book" says.
 
In my opinion, the results speak for themselves.

People criticized Les Miles for going for it on fourth down a bunch, but they shut up after he won a national title.
 
Here's one for you young engineers. Is it better to go for seven with a 30% probability or to go for three with a 60% probability?
 
Essobee said:
Here's one for you young engineers. Is it better to go for seven with a 30% probability or to go for three with a 60% probability?
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I am gonna do the math just in case someone is rusty on his probability Math:

First case:
Expected Points: .30 * 7 = 2.1 points
Second case:
Expected Points: .60 * 3 = 1.8 points

Structured that way, it makes sense. I do agree with the .3 and .6 you used also.
 
The touchdown has an expected value of 2.1, whereas the FG has an expected value of 1.8.

Go for the TD.

Guy above me beat me
 
Jeez, engineers. What us Mgt types understand is that we were not going to be denied on that play so your probabilities matter not!
 
cyptomcat said:
I am gonna do the math just in case someone is rusty on his probability Math:

First case:
Expected Points: .30 * 7 = 2.1 points
Second case:
Expected Points: .60 * 3 = 1.8 points

Structured that way, it makes sense. I do agree with the .3 and .6 you used also.
Click to expand...

Except that you only get 6 for crossing the goal line. You still have to kick the PAT for that 7th point. Therefore, your first case may look like this:

0.30 * ( 6 + 0.60 * 1) = 1.98 points
 
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