4th down we went for

That was a simple calculation. If you go into details, PAT chance is more than 60%. Also you would have to put in the probability for getting a first down and then probabilities for getting a touchdown based on first down on 20-yard line (and also field goal based on first down on 20-yard line.)
 
I'm telling you guys, the probability was 100%. PJ saw the mistake Jaybo made on the previous play and knew that MSU saw it too. Therefore he knew they would adjust to cover the pitch and Jaybo would walk in. He's a freakin' genius!
 
The funny thing about it to me was the time out.

MARK MY WORDS here, that whole "motion into the wishbone then call a time out" thing he's doing - that's a SET UP. He's showing that to everyone who watches film, so every DC will warn their players "Don't jump offsides when they motion into wishbone," then one of these games when it matters most (maybe Georgia) he's going to motion one guy back, start to motion the second guy back, and quicksnap the football during the motion when the DL is thinking "don't jump offsides, don't jump offsides" and our QB is going to barrel for a first down.

The 2nd reason the timeout was funny, was because he pulled everyone aside, explained to them what they did wrong on the previous play, put them in, and told them to run it right next time. That's hilarious to me.
 
gt7282c@prism said:
Except that you only get 6 for crossing the goal line. You still have to kick the PAT for that 7th point. Therefore, your first case may look like this:

0.30 * ( 6 + 0.60 * 1) = 1.98 points
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I didn't pay much attention in project engineering, but I think that the extra point / two point conversion needs to be factored into the equation as well. We really need to get a commission together to hammer this out. This may be even more important then wearing the proper shade of gold.
 
Assuming the same probability %s (which are largely junk to begin with) a TD w/ 2 pt conversion would be:
0.30 * (6 + 0.30 * 2) = 1.98 points

So no difference.
 
Chance of getting 3 yards: 55%
Chance of making 42 yard FG: 33%
 
I'm here at work calculating the UI exhaustion rate for August when I should really be contributing to calculating the probability of scoring a TD on fourth and three from the 25 yard line --with your back-up QB in the game. :hsugh:
 
If anyone is wondering where I came up with the 30% and 60% figures, I snatched them out of my ass without even a thought.

I think ncjacket has it right. On a day when you can do no wrong (last Saturday), go for it and you will make it. On a day when you can do no right (Murphy's law), go for it and you will be no worse off.

Answer: Always go for it.
 
Essobee said:
If anyone is wondering where I came up with the 30% and 60% figures, I snatched them out of my ass without even a thought.

I think ncjacket has it right. On a day when you can do no wrong (last Saturday), go for it and you will make it. On a day when you can do no right (Murphy's law), go for it and you will be no worse off.

Answer: Always go for it.
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:biggthumpup:
(frickin' engineers...we don't need no stinking probability)
 
wait till I finish my whole PhD thesis on sound engineering BDS so that it's noisy as hell.
 
You also have to take into account the marginal value of each point. If you're up by 6 with 2 minutes left, you kick the field goal to go up by 2 possessions.

You could go really deep into this if you really wanted to.
 
You can do all of these probability theories you want, but I can tell you that PJ will go for fourth and three or less yards close to 100% of the time. He has that much confidence in his offense.
 
PJAlltheway said:
You can do all of these probability theories you want, but I can tell you that PJ will go for fourth and three or less yards close to 100% of the time. He has that much confidence in his offense.
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Confidence begets confidence. One of the well kept secrets of team success and why the...gasp...bulldawgs...gasp...always seem (are) so darn lucky.
 
Essobee said:
Confidence begets confidence. One of the well kept secrets of team success and why the...gasp...bulldawgs...gasp...always seem (are) so darn lucky.
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Yep. After MJ recovered the Worst Shotgun Snap In The History of College Football (tm), I turned to one of my friends and said "last year MSU recovers that football."

Confident teams put themselves into a position to be "lucky." I also think the VT game is a perfect example of that. A mostly FR and SO team in one of the most notoriously hostile road environments, -3 in turnovers, and we lose by 3 on an iffy call and Roddy Jones needing to be about an inch taller.

Like Mike McD said, "there's a reason you see the same faces at the final table of the World Series of Poker every year." It ain't luck.
 
wait till I finish my whole PhD thesis on sound engineering BDS so that it's noisy as hell.
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Include relocating the away team's band in your thesis, please. The whole stadium acts like a megaphone for the away-team band.
 
Well, they didn't title the book Dodd's Luck for nothing. BD always said he was lucky because he expected to be.

I loved the story about him showing his kicker what he was doing wrong and punting a ball something like 40 yards into his chair. He just knew it would go there because he wanted it to.
 
As Beej pointed out, the funny thing is the WE RAN THE EXACT SAME PLAY as the 3rd down that failed.

Beyond the probability and expected value arguments, I think CPJ also knew that a TD there puts MSU in really big hole. Also, it wasn't like MSU was going to go 70+ yards on our D (broken play/big run notwithstanding).
 
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