Michigan vs. tOSU winner goes to the MNC...I will guarantee that. tOSU honestly doesn't have to show up for the rest of their games until UM and, with the way Michigan has played, I think they'll beat Penn State and Iowa.
Past that, we really could have to decide between either a one-loss Auburn and the undefeated Louisville vs. WVU winner. I'm not very confident in USC going all the way, and I bet with one loss they're out. So, if the BCS chose between a one-loss Auburn team and an undefeated Big East team, I would definitely pick Auburn to win out. The poll component uses number of votes and, while I think the undefeated team will come out second, the votes will be close enough to let the Computer Rankings take Auburn to the number 2 spot.