Agree and disagree.
First of all, I love the new HC. I feel confident that we will win no matter if we have more or less talent because coach is that good. I haven't felt that way since we had Fridge. And I am one of few who think that talent is overrated in college football.
But CPJ has moved a lot. Was he ever playing with a team entirely dependent on his recruits? Maybe this year's Navy team? He's moved no more than any coach moving up in the coaching ranks.
If he was the worlds absolute best ever recruiter, he should have left a team (as HC) or an offense (as OC) that was too talented to fall far. I assume as OC he was expected to recruit offensive players... Bad assumption. Recruiting coordinators are overall responsible and other coaches have areas to recruit. OCs don't recruit offensive players exclusively, just as OL coaches don't recruit OL. They have their own geography and look for all players that can help.
I agree that those schools (Navy, Hawaii, GSU) largely rely on finding hidden gems to succeed. But CPJ didn't stick around to prove that he had found a bunch of hidden gems. And the guys who followed CPJ didn't appear to have teams overflowing with hidden gems.
The guys following CPJ had the same players he did they just couldn't do anything with them,
So in conclusion, I feel that CPJ is an unproven recruiter. However I subscribe to the BOR theory of recruiting rankings that offer list has the most correlation to success. I very much am impressed with the offer list of our early commits and agree completely with your last two sentences.