Couple Things

Hey I'm as excited as you are, but Clemson will not be easy. Yeah their starting DL is young, but that freshman DE is DaQuan Bowers, the #2 recruit in the country last year...right behind Terrel Pryor. Let's not act as if they're not talented on that side of the line.

Who the heck is saying that CU will be easy? Do we need reading comprehension here? I'm saying they're very beatable given the youth on their D and our rapidly progressing O. That is all.
 
If we can swap Bowden's game plan vs us with his game plan vs Bama, we'll smoke them.

If Bowden grows a pair and decides to do the "hand the ball to Spiller every down" offense, we will have big problems. Especially on draw plays. Our LBs do not handle gap control well, and do not tackle well. Spiller can easily turn a 4 yard gain into a 15 yard gain vs us, if he can get through the line.
 
gtmg,
Completely agree on Cutcliffe. He's not a very good coach. Hell, Ole Miss fired him after Eli Manning left!!! Without the Mannings, he is a joke. This guy is just as conservative as Gailey, the type that punts from his opponents 35 yard line on a 4th and 2 to get 15 yards of "field position".

And to the posters who assume that Duke beats UVA, IT AINT HAPPENING. UVA has some pride and was a pretty good team last year. They will stop the bleeding and put forth a statement game effort and hold Duke below 20 points while laying about 35 on 'em.

Do you really think that we are going to let Duke throw all over us in a week and a half? It'll be like Chris Crane with a weak offensive line. In other words, a beatdown!
 
Good response to my post. As for the odds, I agree that we should win 19 out of 20 against Duke and UVA. But if Vegas starts giving odds of GT being 10-1 at 25% I'd have to put the house up against my beloved Jackets. But I like the way you think. For me 10-1 is between a hope and a dream like winning the UGA game big.

We just disagree on the odds, and that's OK. I put losing to Duke or UVA at less than 5% with our current coaching, the progress this O is making, and their D's. I'd put our odds of going into the UGAG game at 10-1 at near 25%. When you consider that we only have to hold serve on the teams we are better than (DU, GW, UVA, FSU and UNC), and beat a very suspect (at this time) Clemson team and a Miami team with a Nix-led offense.

I think that TODAY we would be underdogs to FSU (with their suspended players back not the depleted team that played Wake) in Atlanta and underdogs to UNC with a healthy QB in Chapel Hill. JMHO.
 
Hey I'm as excited as you are, but Clemson will not be easy. Yeah their starting DL is young, but that freshman DE is DaQuan Bowers, the #2 recruit in the country last year...right behind Terrel Pryor. Let's not act as if they're not talented on that side of the line.

In fact in the Alabama shellacking, Bowers was the only CU DL that was consistently getting pressure. To still from Michael Irving . . . the kid is a playmaker.
 
Good response to my post. As for the odds, I agree that we should win 19 out of 20 against Duke and UVA. But if Vegas starts giving odds of GT being 10-1 at 25% I'd have to put the house up against my beloved Jackets. But I like the way you think. For me 10-1 is between a hope and a dream like winning the UGA game big.

I think that TODAY we would be underdogs to FSU (with their suspended players back not the depleted team that played Wake) in Atlanta and underdogs to UNC with a healthy QB in Chapel Hill. JMHO.

I agree, if we don't improve at all and go into those games just as we are today, we have only a chance to win. But with the progress I've already seen, I believe we'll be favored by game time.
 
Good response to my post. As for the odds, I agree that we should win 19 out of 20 against Duke and UVA. But if Vegas starts giving odds of GT being 10-1 at 25% I'd have to put the house up against my beloved Jackets. But I like the way you think. For me 10-1 is between a hope and a dream like winning the UGA game big.

Yes they will be very tough games, but they are games we can win.

I never said it was likely, just very possible. And I do believe with the progress our O is making that it is more possible each passing week.

We just disagree on the odds, and that's OK. I put losing to Duke or UVA at less than 5% with our current coaching, the progress this O is making, and their D's. I'd put our odds of going into the UGAG game at 10-1 at near 25%. When you consider that we only have to hold serve on the teams we are better than (DU, GW, UVA, FSU and UNC), and beat a very suspect (at this time) Clemson team and a Miami team with a Nix-led offense.
 
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Quote- Met a lot of the recruits this weekend, it was one of the biggest crowds of recruits I have ever seen since being around GT. We feel like we are sitting well with Orwin Smith and possibly the front runners, Jamal Patterson is a very real possibility his family would like him to stay closer, Jamea Thomas if we offer he should be ours to lose, Cross should be committing soon it sounds like, Jonathan Davis is very close his father seemed excited about GT. The commits that were present had a great time and seem very excited about the future of the program. {Quote}


Dems, are we still in the pictuture for John Drew, are the coaches still in contact and trying to get him to recommit? If not, is there any big DT's we still have a shot at? I know Jason Peters could slide over to DT next year BUT, we still are in desperate need of more DT's, if not, this could very well be our achilles heel for the next couple of years...losing John Drew to Duke will hurt...He is a smart kid and could have possibly enrolled early and got in here for spring...
 
Anyone on our schedule except GW can beat us. ....

Duke and UVA do look beatable, but if we lay an egg with turnovers we will lose. ....

GREAT teams struggle to go 10-1. We are a LONG way from being good enough to talk like 10-1 is more than a longshot IMHO.....

If we (the team, not us fans) are looking ahead to Clemson we will be lucky not to lose to Duke. They are Div 1 athletes with a good coach and they have been practicing for the triple O and have played against it. They are also smarter than many and should be able to play their assignments.


I agree with all of this but with one exception: If we turn the ball over enough and play defense the way we did the 2d half of the Miss St game, GW could beat us too. I was as thrilled as anyone with the BC and Miss St games, and even proud of the Va Tech performance, but I have seen too much football in my life to even DARE go assuming that we can coast to a record better than 6-6 this year. But, having said all that, I think 8 or 9 wins in the reg season is a sound possibility. And, I am hopeful that PJ and his offense and the new enthusiasm might attract better bowl offers. But the best thing about all of this is that I have already seen enough to know that we have a GREAT coach in charge, and I feel that even more so than with O'Leary. So, if we get some bad breaks and go 5-7 this year (or worse) I'll still be damned excited for next year and that's a fact.
 
Considering that the 2nd half of the MSU game we were playing guys well down the 2-deep, I'd discount that performace considerably.

As we stand today (not considering future improvement), these are my probabilities for wins for the rest of our schedule.

Duke - 80%
GW - 100%
CU - 40%
UVA - 80%
FSU - 60%
UNC - 60%
Miami - 50%

Assuming these are ballpark, that gives us a 5% chance to win all 7, right? If we improve and, for example, Yates doesn't come back, and FSU's QB situation doesn't clear up, all those odds would change in our favor. Not to mention that every game we win will increase our odds of winning all 7. It is not at all a far-fetched thing.

Say we beat Duke and GW, and we see good progress in our O, which we almost certainly will, and Yates is gone for teh seasons. The odds will change as follows:

CU - 40%
UVA - 90%
FSU - 60%
UNC - 75%
Miami - 50%

That leaves our probability of running those games of 8%, and if we beat CU, that leaves us at 20%.
 
Right, If the players all simultaneously get the flu in two weeks, we might lose to Gardner Webb, too. We'll have to field the team with walkons and have them coached by a Chem 1101 professor.

The team could also get hit by GTRI's top secret shrinking ray where Michael Johnson is even shorter than Reggie Ball. But the big question, would there be a mini-Coach Paul Johnson?
 
Duke - .9
GW - .99 (max value)
CU - .45 (I worry about our LB stopping the big runs)
UVa - .95
FSU - .75
UNC - .5
Miami - .55
UGa - .25

GT has 5.34 more wins coming! And a 1.9% chance of winning out!
 
Duke - .9
GW - .99 (max value)
CU - .45 (I worry about our LB stopping the big runs)
UVa - .95
FSU - .75
UNC - .5
Miami - .55
UGa - .25

GT has 5.34 more wins coming! And a 1.9% chance of winning out!

I think you are way too optimistic on your percentages for Duke, FSU and even UVA. But hey, it is nice to be positive about the prospects.
 
I think you are way too optimistic on your percentages for Duke, FSU and even UVA. But hey, it is nice to be positive about the prospects.

1. I think Duke is overrated. They are better than the previous versions of Duke, but Cutcliff is no Spurrier. I think he can get them to 6-6, IF he can beat UVa, NCSt, and UNC. But I think 4-8 is more likely.

2. I think FSU's defense will over play the option. They are also going to play VT before us and Clemson after us. There will be no extra time for them to study our offense. I don't think think their offense is very good.

3. UVa is playing like a team who wants their coach fired. CPJ seems more like a coach killer. I don't think anyone will say "They just saved so-and-so's job" while Johnson is coaching here.
 
3. UVa is playing like a team who wants their coach fired. CPJ seems more like a coach killer. I don't think anyone will say "They just saved so-and-so's job" while Johnson is coaching here.

Yeah, count me in the group that thinks Duke will beat UVA. Virginia is really bad this year.

Like, worse they were 2 years ago when we beat them 24-7 on Thursday night.

So far they've played 2 DI-A teams: USC (lost 52-7) and the much less powerful UConn (lost 45-10). And they only beat DI-AA Richmond 16-0.

It would not surprise me if UVA goes 1-11 on the year. They will not be favored in any of their remaining games, that's for sure.
 
Woot. I love these math threads.

Duke - .95
GW - .99
CU - .45
UVa - .95
FSU - .75
UNC - .7
Miami - .5
UGa - .3

I've got us winning 5.59 more games, for an expected value of 8.59, and a 3.2% chance of winning out.
 
I was saying that before Maryland played Cal.

Getting wiped by USC doesn't tell me much. Beating Richmond 16-0 isn't that revealing either.

The UConn drilling says more to me than either of the others but I'm not jumping on the UVa is the new Duke bandwagon yet nor am I on the Duke is the new Wake Forest train since Duke's games are equally non-statements.

I'm going with UVa until Duke proves they can beat somebody who hits back.
 
Duke - .9
GW - .99 (max value)
CU - .45 (I worry about our LB stopping the big runs)
UVa - .95
FSU - .75
UNC - .5
Miami - .55
UGa - .25

GT has 5.34 more wins coming! And a 1.9% chance of winning out!

Having seen many things on many football fields as a Tech fan, I see it differently:


DUKE 70% (Factor in the overconfidence and looking-ahead concerns in with an experienced passer and a smart defense who has dealt with Navy this year and you have a scary game in my judgment.)

GW 90+% (Based on what I know about our littlest Bulldog challenge this year, I think we could probably have a sub-par game and still manage to win.)

@Clemson 30% (Coach Tommy got one of his annual crap games out of the way early and he doesn't owe us another one after last year. This former NC-hopeful team now has nothing to play for but the ACC and revenge. They may be back in the top 10 by then and will probably give us their best shot. We'll have come off of cupcake alley.)

UVA 65% (Been burned by "bad" Cav teams many times. A loss here will be frustrating but not shocking.)

FSU 40% (Talent flying all over the field at warp speed; we still haven't beaten them ONE TIME since they joined the ACC; well-coached on defense. Glad this is a home game.)

@UNC 50% (Another great coach; road game makes this a toss-up, assuming their QB is back.)

Miami 51% (I'm not even going to pretend to know a thing about how this game will go. At this point it's a dead toss-up, but I gave us an extra point for being at home and also for having their number, like Wake has FSU's and hopefully like Tenn still has UGA's!)

UGA 20% (I'd have said >10% last week so don't think I'm not optimistic. I love having a 1-in-5 shot to beat them in Athens. I love our coach and our team and our attitude but UGA on the road this year is an awfully tall order. They'll either still be in the running for a NC or they won't be and will be looking to take it out on us. A bad situation for us either way.)

I'd be happy with 7-5. I'd be THRILLED with 8 wins. I'd be ECSTATIC if we could beat FSU or Clemson or UGA. Importance of the UGA game goes without saying, but I'd also love to get the FSU monkey off our backs..... I'll believe either when I see it.....
 
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