How many games will we win this year?

How many games will we win this year?

  • 3 or less

    Votes: 10 4.8%
  • 4

    Votes: 26 12.4%
  • 5

    Votes: 52 24.8%
  • 6

    Votes: 73 34.8%
  • 7

    Votes: 31 14.8%
  • 8 or more

    Votes: 18 8.6%

  • Total voters
    210

aeromech

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Dave wommack was a better DC than Tenuta? You must have missed where we had a string of top 25 defenses under Tenuta. Wommack inherited a defense with 4 NFL DL and 3 NFL DBs, and the thing was coming apart by the end of the 2008 season. By 2009 our D was absolutely terrible despite having 2 of the 5 best defensive players we’ve had in 25 years
I missed the top 25 defenses because we never had one (if you know of a rating service that says otherwise I'll accept the correction). Our defense was rated 48th in 2007 ( 2007 COLLEGE FOOTBALL DEFENSIVE FEI RATINGS | Football Outsiders ). (It was only 43rd in 2008, and fell to 84th in 2009.) One of the biggest fables around here is the Tenuta defenses, it was feast or famine with those defenses even with the terrible ACC offenses they faced. Never once were we even the top defense in the ACC. Wommack wasn't a wonderful DC; but his career looks as good as Tenuta's when you read the bios. If we had the defenses posters want to believe we had then Tenuta would be a DC somewhere.
 

kirk.susong

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Apr 9, 2019
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Can we just enjoy the season as it unfolds?

I hate these threads.
I don't know how to respond. I wanna be optimistic, but years of disappointment make that hard to sustain. I don't really have a lot of football knowledge, so not sure my 'analysis' would mean much.

At this point, I'm expecting that we'll be competitive in every game, don't shoot ourselves in the foot, make some FG's, avoid penalties, etc.
 

GoldZ

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Did Womack do better immediately after he went to Ole Miss?
 

The Champ

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I missed the top 25 defenses because we never had one (if you know of a rating service that says otherwise I'll accept the correction). Our defense was rated 48th in 2007 ( 2007 COLLEGE FOOTBALL DEFENSIVE FEI RATINGS | Football Outsiders ). (It was only 43rd in 2008, and fell to 84th in 2009.) One of the biggest fables around here is the Tenuta defenses, it was feast or famine with those defenses even with the terrible ACC offenses they faced. Never once were we even the top defense in the ACC. Wommack wasn't a wonderful DC; but his career looks as good as Tenuta's when you read the bios. If we had the defenses posters want to believe we had then Tenuta would be a DC somewhere.
2002 - 50th in nation ypg; 29th in ppg
2003 - 20th in nation ypg; 27th in ppg
2004 - 14th in nation in ypg; 22nd in ppg
2005 - 10th in nation ypg; 16th in ppg
2006 - 20th in nation ypg; 21st ppg
 

Diseqc

I appreciate the question
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Apr 15, 2008
Messages
42,049
Losing to either NIU or KSU is a fire able offense after the Citadel disaster.

Winning less than 5 means Paterdouche is gone.
 

aeromech

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2002 - 50th in nation ypg; 29th in ppg
2003 - 20th in nation ypg; 27th in ppg
2004 - 14th in nation in ypg; 22nd in ppg
2005 - 10th in nation ypg; 16th in ppg
2006 - 20th in nation ypg; 21st ppg
Defense feasted on terrible ACC offenses, they weren't ranked top 25 in the nation. Compare those stats to VPI.
 

The Champ

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Defense feasted on terrible ACC offenses, they weren't ranked top 25 in the nation. Compare those stats to VPI.
Ok. We gave up just over 18 ppg to power conference teams (+Notre Dame) in 17 games from 2002-2007. That’s actually better than our ACC ppg allowed in the same span. It was all feasting on weak ACC offenses though?

Not sure what VT has to do with Georgia Techs ranking. They were probably a top 10 defense during the same span. GT wasn’t as good, but fielded a top 25 defense, as noted above.
 

aeromech

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Ok. We gave up just over 18 ppg to power conference teams (+Notre Dame) in 17 games from 2002-2007. That’s actually better than our ACC ppg allowed in the same span. It was all feasting on weak ACC offenses though?

Not sure what VT has to do with Georgia Techs ranking. They were probably a top 10 defense during the same span. GT wasn’t as good, but fielded a top 25 defense, as noted above.
Ok look for yourself in 2006. We were #27 in the nation on defense Pts/Gm, and #8 in the ACC behind VPI, WF, Miami, BC, Clemson, Louisville, & UVA. The ACC was so bad in those days that there were open discussion on ESPN about should the ACC be dropped from the Power 5. It picked up the moniker the 'All Clown Conference'.

Don't confuse stats with rankings. In 2007 we were #21 in Pts/Gm but ranked #48. That is because we played bunch of weak offenses. You can't be outside of the top few defenses in the ACC and expect to be top 25 nationally, not in a conference that is so weak Wake Forest is your champion.

2007 Team Defense | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
 

The Champ

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Ok look for yourself in 2006. We were #27 in the nation on defense Pts/Gm, and #8 in the ACC behind VPI, WF, Miami, BC, Clemson, Louisville, & UVA. The ACC was so bad in those days that there were open discussion on ESPN about should the ACC be dropped from the Power 5. It picked up the moniker the 'All Clown Conference'.

Don't confuse stats with rankings. In 2007 we were #21 in Pts/Gm but ranked #48. That is because we played bunch of weak offenses. You can't be outside of the top few defenses in the ACC and expect to be top 25 nationally, not in a conference that is so weak Wake Forest is your champion.

2007 Team Defense | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
You are a moron.
 

aeromech

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You are a moron.
Then I guess our current coach and all the other coaches in the NCAA are morons as well. CGC knows Jon Tenuta, they were both at GT at the same time and CGC chose Thacker who is unproven over Tenuta who was available and as you say had top 25 defenses from 2001-2007. Frankly I am glad he brought Thacker instead and I think he'll be good once he gets the players up front. You need look no further than Tenuta's bio to see what the football world thinks about Tenuta's blitz defense. As you already pointed out, we had good defensive players when Gailey was here and a mediocre to poor DC. I don't see Tenuta being able to improve our current defense with the players we have and Giff Smith isn't here to recruit for him anymore.
 

BrentwoodJacket

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At this point what happened 10 to 15 years ago is history. Celebrate the highs, forget the lows and focus on the future.
 

Old-Fashioned UGA Hater

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Georgia was in the top 10 in final 2014 rankings. Why did you leave it out?
2015 UGA ended top 25.
2012 ended top 5.
2011 top 20.
2008 top 15.

Gailey would have lost in 2008; might have pulled a win out in 2009. Doubtful Gailey wins any of the others because Richt had Tenuta figured out and that was the horse Gailey was riding. We had a hugely better OC in 2008 than 2007 and that made a huge difference in that game. In hindsight we probably had a better DC in 2008 vs 2007 too. We beat a UGA team in 2008 we otherwise wouldn'tfavored have, and then lost 2009 in a game we all think we should have won, not because of roster; but because of what the 2009 teams had done during the season leading up to that game.
That 2009 game haunts Tech fans because I wonder when was the last time we were favored over the dwags by more than TD? Can't remember the line but wasn't it 8.5?
 

Olgoldandwhie

Flats Noob
Joined
Feb 11, 2019
Messages
570
My guess is 7. This years true gauge may be the final score. If we get blown out by 4-5 teams, I’m going to go hmmm. If all games are close, I for one, will feel better about the future.
 

ramblinwise1

beware the zealot
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Dec 17, 2001
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NIU and KSU aren't layups......NIU returns 20 of 22 staters off of a very young team last year and have a Michigan State transfer at QB. KSU could give us fits just because of the offense they run and they are a very good FCS team. I not convinced that we will be that much better in all areas and Collins remains a better recruiter than game day coach.
I think if we lost to NIU and/or KSU we will be looking at a '93-94 type meltdown.
 

georgia_tech_swagger

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Dec 4, 2001
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2,174
I don't foresee a bowl this season either. A lot of losses last year weren't close.

vs UCF: Loss by 4 touchdowns ... UCF finished 6-4 in the AAC
@ Syracuse: Loss by 2.5 touchdowns ... Syracuse didn't win another game all year
vs Louisville: Win by 2.5 touchdowns ... UofL finished 4-7
vs Clemson: Loss by over 9 touchdowns in what is easily the biggest loss of my entire lifetime
@ BC: Loss by 3 touchdowns
vs Notre Dame: Loss by 2.5 touchdowns
vs Duke: Win by 3.5 touchdowns
@ NC State: Loss by 1.5 touchdowns
vs Pitt: Loss by 2 touchdowns


Collins' teams tend to start slow. He lost to a FCS program early in the season both of his years at Temple. He then lost to Citadel and otherwise winless Syracuse at GT. I wouldn't automatically bank Kennesaw State or Northern Illinois given that Collins has a 1.000 batting average for having a humiliating upset in a season.

The strength of this coaching staff is suppose to be defense. They inherited a not-awful defensive roster. So far they've only gone in reverse while the talent level has been increasing. The defense clocked in at 88th nationally in defensive efficiency last season. Other teams in that neighborhood last season? Winless Kansas. Winless FIU. Winless Arizona.

What about the offense right? It showed flashes last year. It also had a nasty penchant for costly red zone turnovers and a few games where it may have not got off the bus. They finished 92nd in offensive efficiency last year. Other teams in that neighborhood? Winless NIU (over 10 spots higher). Winless UNLV. Winless Vanderbilt.

Where is a difference of 2 or 3 touchdowns a game going to come from in margin? That's what it will take to move the needle looking at last season. I think the consensus is they'll be better. A full touchdown a game better let alone three? You need a lot of gold on your glasses to be able to see that. If they had solutions to their problems I would have expected a little closer margin last year on defeats than the average margin of defeat which is nearly FOUR TOUCHDOWNS after you add in the Clemson game.

Best case scenario .... uhhh ... get some more recruiting classes like the first one and make a bowl by 2023? Worst case scenario ... this season is a repeat of the prior two. Then something similar happens again in 2022. Now there will be coordinator level changes. And we're back to another 2 years of waiting. And then 2024 is your make or break season for the staff.

It sucks that now that the GTAA is finally getting past having Bobinsquatch as AD that, amid all the department wide success, the sports the fans care about most still have bugaboos. Football is at a generational nadir. Men's basketball won the ACC only to get bounced by COVID and a bad draw in the NCAAT and then lose its two most important players. And it wasn't like that whole season was the Harlem Globetrotters ... that season started pretty damn horrifically thanks to some genius and their idea to not practice. And baseball regionals should still come with a giant bottle of Maalox. Frustrating to say the least.
 
Last edited:

GoldZ

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Oct 18, 2002
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I don't foresee a bowl this season either. A lot of losses last year weren't close.

vs UCF: Loss by 4 touchdowns ... UCF finished 6-4 in the AAC
@ Syracuse: Loss by 2.5 touchdowns ... Syracuse didn't win another game all year
vs Louisville: Win by 2.5 touchdowns ... UofL finished 4-7
vs Clemson: Loss by over 9 touchdowns in what is easily the biggest loss of my entire lifetime
@ BC: Loss by 3 touchdowns
vs Notre Dame: Loss by 2.5 touchdowns
vs Duke: Win by 3.5 touchdowns
@ NC State: Loss by 1.5 touchdowns
vs Pitt: Loss by 2 touchdowns


Collins' teams tend to start slow. He lost to a FCS program early in the season both of his years at Temple. He then lost to Citadel and otherwise winless Syracuse at GT. I wouldn't automatically bank Kennesaw State or Northern Illinois given that Collins has a 1.000 batting average for having a humiliating upset in a season.

The strength of this coaching staff is suppose to be defense. They inherited a not-awful defensive roster. So far they've only gone in reverse while the talent level has been increasing. The defense clocked in at 88th nationally in defensive efficiency last season. Other teams in that neighborhood last season? Winless Kansas. Winless FIU. Winless Arizona.

What about the offense right? It showed flashes last year. It also had a nasty penchant for costly red zone turnovers and a few games where it may have not got off the bus. They finished 92nd in offensive efficiency last year. Other teams in that neighborhood? Winless NIU (over 10 spots higher). Winless UNLV. Winless Vanderbilt.

Where is a difference of 2 or 3 touchdowns a game going to come from in margin? That's what it will take to move the needle looking at last season. I think the consensus is they'll be better. A full touchdown a game better let alone three? You need a lot of gold on your glasses to be able to see that. If they had solutions to their problems I would have expected a little closer margin last year on defeats than the average margin of defeat which is nearly FOUR TOUCHDOWNS after you add in the Clemson game.

Best case scenario .... uhhh ... get some more recruiting classes like the first one and make a bowl by 2023? Worst case scenario ... this season is a repeat of the prior two. Then something similar happens again in 2022. Now there will be coordinator level changes. And we're back to another 2 years of waiting. And then 2024 is your make or break season for the staff.

It sucks that now that the GTAA is finally getting past having Bobinsquatch as AD that, amid all the department wide success, the sports the fans care about most still have bugaboos. Football is at a generational nadir. Men's basketball won the ACC only to get bounced by COVID and a bad draw in the NCAAT and then lose its two most important players. And it wasn't like that whole season was the Harlem Globetrotters ... that season started pretty damn horrifically thanks to some genius and their idea to not practice. And baseball regionals should still come with a giant bottle of Maalox. Frustrating to say the least.
Not so sure a 3 win season this year equates to a 2024 season with same coaching staff.
 

Olgoldandwhie

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Feb 11, 2019
Messages
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We are near a complete roster turnover and supposedly the talent level has taken a significant jump. We need to start playing big boy football and quit the excuses. That’s the reason I voted 7-5.
 

Techbert

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We are near a complete roster turnover and supposedly the talent level has taken a significant jump. We need to start playing big boy football and quit the excuses. That’s the reason I voted 7-5.
A complete roster turnover would mean replacing old regime seniors with new regime seniors, old regime juniors with new regime juniors, and so on.

What we have is very different. We have a roster of true freshmen, true sophomores, and redshirt freshmen, with a hodgepodge of flex seal transfers.

People wonder why I have so little respect for the old guard calcified GT fan base.
 
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