- Oct 18, 2002
Not so sure a 3 win season this year equates to a 2024 season with same coaching staff.I don't foresee a bowl this season either. A lot of losses last year weren't close.
vs UCF: Loss by 4 touchdowns ... UCF finished 6-4 in the AAC
@ Syracuse: Loss by 2.5 touchdowns ... Syracuse didn't win another game all year
vs Louisville: Win by 2.5 touchdowns ... UofL finished 4-7
vs Clemson: Loss by over 9 touchdowns in what is easily the biggest loss of my entire lifetime
@ BC: Loss by 3 touchdowns
vs Notre Dame: Loss by 2.5 touchdowns
vs Duke: Win by 3.5 touchdowns
@ NC State: Loss by 1.5 touchdowns
vs Pitt: Loss by 2 touchdowns
Collins' teams tend to start slow. He lost to a FCS program early in the season both of his years at Temple. He then lost to Citadel and otherwise winless Syracuse at GT. I wouldn't automatically bank Kennesaw State or Northern Illinois given that Collins has a 1.000 batting average for having a humiliating upset in a season.
The strength of this coaching staff is suppose to be defense. They inherited a not-awful defensive roster. So far they've only gone in reverse while the talent level has been increasing. The defense clocked in at 88th nationally in defensive efficiency last season. Other teams in that neighborhood last season? Winless Kansas. Winless FIU. Winless Arizona.
What about the offense right? It showed flashes last year. It also had a nasty penchant for costly red zone turnovers and a few games where it may have not got off the bus. They finished 92nd in offensive efficiency last year. Other teams in that neighborhood? Winless NIU (over 10 spots higher). Winless UNLV. Winless Vanderbilt.
Where is a difference of 2 or 3 touchdowns a game going to come from in margin? That's what it will take to move the needle looking at last season. I think the consensus is they'll be better. A full touchdown a game better let alone three? You need a lot of gold on your glasses to be able to see that. If they had solutions to their problems I would have expected a little closer margin last year on defeats than the average margin of defeat which is nearly FOUR TOUCHDOWNS after you add in the Clemson game.
Best case scenario .... uhhh ... get some more recruiting classes like the first one and make a bowl by 2023? Worst case scenario ... this season is a repeat of the prior two. Then something similar happens again in 2022. Now there will be coordinator level changes. And we're back to another 2 years of waiting. And then 2024 is your make or break season for the staff.
It sucks that now that the GTAA is finally getting past having Bobinsquatch as AD that, amid all the department wide success, the sports the fans care about most still have bugaboos. Football is at a generational nadir. Men's basketball won the ACC only to get bounced by COVID and a bad draw in the NCAAT and then lose its two most important players. And it wasn't like that whole season was the Harlem Globetrotters ... that season started pretty damn horrifically thanks to some genius and their idea to not practice. And baseball regionals should still come with a giant bottle of Maalox. Frustrating to say the least.