71, I have no qualms with your last post. I agree with you, it is difficult to determine who will turn out to be the best coach.
It is a gamble at best. It is like throwing dice, except those that have figured out the odds will beat those of us who no nothing about the cubes. However, luck plays a minor role.
AugustaJacket, I also have no qualms about hiring from within. I think it is the best route if you have the best qualified candidates, but hiring from within cannot be the only criteria.
Case in point is Tech. Mac had "no" qualifications to indicate he would make a good head coach other than one game. His resume does not impress anyone as far as becoming a head coach. Tie that to the fact he was a UGA football player and alumni, and you have case for running the AD out of the country if he does not succeed.
O'Brien was ready to leave Tech for Notre Dame and interviewed for several pro positions following that. His resume does not impress anyone either. His only year without Friegden ended below expectations for a year when Tech was picked to be in the top ten. His only claim to fame was the OC performance in the bowl game, and, again, you cannot promote someone on one game.
Roof and Spencer are the only two valid candidates remaining. Roof would have been next in line as he was the DC, but he also wavered and would have left Tech and followed O'Leary to Notre Dame. His resume was not very impressive, other than playing for Tech and being the DC at Tech. His defense was questioned during his tenure at this post. So, strike him from the list.
I claim Spencer had the most going for him, except it would have been difficult for the administration to consider him over Roof, since Roof was the DC. Spencer's resume looks pretty impressive, but he needed a little more time with more exposure. Strike him from the list.
Now, Gailey appears with a most impressive resume (see stats from a previous post), he was recommended to Braine by a past great Tech football player and many of Gailey's peers.
It was a no-brainer (excuse the pun), any AD in the world would have chosen Gailey over the others. Yes, you chose from within when the candidates meet the requirements. You go outside the organization when internal candidates do not meet the requirements, and you find a great candidate elsewhere as your new CEO.
Does that mean, Gailey automatically becomes the next great coach at Tech? No, but you have used the most preferred procedures and rolled the dice. You feel you have made the right choice because the odds are on your side of the roll.