Moving toward Football in the Fall

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gtg970g said:
There have not been a significant number of deaths in the 0-24 age range. 151 deaths as of 6/17/2020 per CDC data.
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Unfortunately, many people don't seem to have the ability to put numbers into perspective, and since there is no data easy to find, many of the COVID-19 deaths in 0-24 year range may have been in young people who had serious pre-existing health conditions. College athletes are typically very healthy and physically fit. I have seen quotes about lung damage, but I'm still waiting for that to be presented as a legitimate concern. It seems like it would be detailed in medical literature by now if it was actually a common occurrence.

Flu numbers by comparison, which never caused any talk of canceling a college football season:

Since flu-associated deaths in children became a nationally notifiable condition in 2004, the total number of flu-associated deaths among children during one season has ranged from 37 (during the 2011-2012 season) to 186 (during the 2017-18 season, as of April 19, 2019); this excludes the 2009 pandemic, when 358 pediatric deaths from April 15, 2009 through October 2, 2010 were reported to CDC.
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https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm
 
Techbert said:
I think, and I am open to correction, that the athletes are worried not about death or hospitalization, but by damage to the lungs, which of course affects their top performance and stamina and ability to compete, both long and short term.

Not saying whether or not that fear is well-founded. Saying it is a fear.
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They are much more likely to suffer an ACL injury.
 
jacket67 said:
Flu numbers by comparison, which never caused any talk of canceling a college football season:
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Don’t kid yourself, this ain’t the flu. My neighbor across the street just died of COVID. Was elderly but otherwise healthy.
 
jacket67 said:
Unfortunately, many people don't seem to have the ability to put numbers into perspective, and since there is no data easy to find, many of the COVID-19 deaths in 0-24 year range may have been in young people who had serious pre-existing health conditions. College athletes are typically very healthy and physically fit. I have seen quotes about lung damage, but I'm still waiting for that to be presented as a legitimate concern. It seems like it would be detailed in medical literature by now if it was actually a common occurrence.

Flu numbers by comparison, which never caused any talk of canceling a college football season:



https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm
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I don’t understand your point. The material you link shows clearly that Covid-19 is much more severe than the flu and has caused more deaths in children than the typical flu season in only 4 months. I thought you were arguing that the pandemic is not a reason to worry about young adults?
 
ncjacket said:
I don’t understand your point. The material you link shows clearly that Covid-19 is much more severe than the flu and has caused more deaths in children than the typical flu season in only 4 months. I thought you were arguing that the pandemic is not a reason to worry about young adults?
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I don't think you looked at the numbers. 358 pediatric deaths from flu season in 2009-2010, and 186 in flu season 2017/2018, most of which were in the same time frame (flu is a winter seasonal infection and always listed as the 2 years of that winter). But the point is not comparing 150 to 300; it is that they all represent very small numbers in a country of 400 million people.
 
jacket67 said:
I don't think you looked at the numbers. 358 pediatric deaths from flu season in 2009-2010, and 186 in flu season 2017/2018, most of which were in the same time frame (flu is a winter seasonal infection and always listed as the 2 years of that winter). But the point is not comparing 150 to 300; it is that they all represent very small numbers in a country of 400 million people.
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But what do flu deaths have to do with Covid-19? BTW flu deaths are calculated for 12 months, starts in the fall and usually ends when the weather warms up.
 
jacket67 said:
Unfortunately, many people don't seem to have the ability to put numbers into perspective, and since there is no data easy to find, many of the COVID-19 deaths in 0-24 year range may have been in young people who had serious pre-existing health conditions. College athletes are typically very healthy and physically fit. I have seen quotes about lung damage, but I'm still waiting for that to be presented as a legitimate concern. It seems like it would be detailed in medical literature by now if it was actually a common occurrence.

Flu numbers by comparison, which never caused any talk of canceling a college football season:



https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm
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short term effects, even among the asymptomatic, have been shown:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...-dont-fully-understand-the-label-asymptomatic

at this point, we don't know the risk...
 
ncjacket said:
But what do flu deaths have to do with Covid-19? BTW flu deaths are calculated for 12 months, starts in the fall and usually ends when the weather warms up.
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Flu is very seasonal; the spike starts anywhere from December to February and drops off March to April. A very high percentage of the total annual cases occur over a 2-3 month span, even though the data is based on a year. The point is that flu is barely reported in the news each year unless it's an exceptionally bad strain, while the response to COVID-19 is out of proportion to the degree of danger. People have a fear of this virus that is off the charts, mostly based on flawed forecasts and media obsession over it. Despite clear evidence that the serious threat is concentrated on a small percentage of vulnerable individuals, such as residents of long-term care facilities and those with chronic illnesses, many people still think it's like rolling a roulette wheel each time someone is infected. It's a bad virus, but it's not 10 times as bad as the ones we mostly ignore.
 
jacket67 said:
Yeah nobody knows for certain yet, but the vast medical history of similar infections, like walking pneumonia, suggests it's not something to fret over. Unless of course you are desperate to fret over something.
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I already fret over losing family and friends. They have decade or decades more to live, times to cherish together. I also fret over the toll the economy is taking from this. The more cases and deaths climb, the more impact there is to the economy.

I do not fret over missing one college football season, not as much as you at least.
 
cyptomcat said:
I do not fret over missing one college football season, not as much as you at least.
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I think you underestimate the devastation of loosing a single football season. I don't see how college maintain athletics outside of football if this season is lost.
 
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jacket67 said:
Flu is very seasonal; the spike starts anywhere from December to February and drops off March to April. A very high percentage of the total annual cases occur over a 2-3 month span, even though the data is based on a year. The point is that flu is barely reported in the news each year unless it's an exceptionally bad strain, while the response to COVID-19 is out of proportion to the degree of danger. People have a fear of this virus that is off the charts, mostly based on flawed forecasts and media obsession over it. Despite clear evidence that the serious threat is concentrated on a small percentage of vulnerable individuals, such as residents of long-term care facilities and those with chronic illnesses, many people still think it's like rolling a roulette wheel each time someone is infected. It's a bad virus, but it's not 10 times as bad as the ones we mostly ignore.
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It actually is close to 10x as bad as the flu though in terms of % of deaths. Probably not quite there but certainly somewhere north of 5x. And as I’ve said before I have been in the health care industry for 40 years and this is the first time I remember large numbers of nurses and docs uneasy or afraid to go to work. We are getting a better handle on it as one would expect but are no where near being out of the woods. I am not saying we can’t have sports but those who seem to have decided this is really no big deal and want to go about things as if nothing “special” is going on will make this worse.
 
ncjacket said:
It actually is close to 10x as bad as the flu though in terms of % of deaths. Probably not quite there but certainly somewhere north of 5x. And as I’ve said before I have been in the health care industry for 40 years and this is the first time I remember large numbers of nurses and docs uneasy or afraid to go to work.
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Simply not true. Deaths are nowhere near 5 times the number of a typical flu season, but using a death count is very misleading anyway, because a smart response to the virus has to consider who is really at risk and target those people for protection. If more people ultimately die from the consequences of blanket policies that are adopted to protect the public, then the policy is misguided. If the policy slows the process of reaching herd immunity, then it leaves the vulnerable part of the population at risk for a longer period of time. Uncertainty is a legitimate basis for over reacting sometimes, but good policy adapts to data and weighs the pros and cons of each action. Right now, we are in a phase of irrational fear which is dangerous to our society. I have also been in the healthcare industry as a physician for 30 years and most of my experience is treating respiratory infections. Prior to that, I was a microbiologist. I personally had COVID-19 infection in March. Most of the healthcare workers were fearful of the virus in March, but the ones who work in related fields understand the epidemiology of it from first hand experience, and they mostly think the shutdown needs to end.
 
jacket67 said:
Simply not true. Deaths are nowhere near 5 times the number of a typical flu season, but using a death count is very misleading anyway, because a smart response to the virus has to consider who is really at risk and target those people for protection. If more people ultimately die from the consequences of blanket policies that are adopted to protect the public, then the policy is misguided. If the policy slows the process of reaching herd immunity, then it leaves the vulnerable part of the population at risk for a longer period of time. Uncertainty is a legitimate basis for over reacting sometimes, but good policy adapts to data and weighs the pros and cons of each action. Right now, we are in a phase of irrational fear which is dangerous to our society. I have also been in the healthcare industry as a physician for 30 years and most of my experience is treating respiratory infections. Prior to that, I was a microbiologist. I personally had COVID-19 infection in March. Most of the healthcare workers were fearful of the virus in March, but the ones who work in related fields understand the epidemiology of it from first hand experience, and they mostly think the shutdown needs to end.
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Jeez man just look at the numbers. Estimated mortality is somewhere over .05% from what I am seeing now, compared to the typical flu at about .01. By the time this settles down, and hopefully it does, we will be somewhere in that range more than likely. As I’ve said I don’t think we should shut down again but wearing masks and social distancing in public makes sense. How that will impact sports is something we will have to adjust to as things play out.
 
18in32 said:
The GTAA is asking us what we're going to do in the fall...
Screen Shot 2020-06-24 at 7.36.42 PM.png
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Invalid.

No "Based on Uni" option.
 
cyptomcat said:
I already fret over losing family and friends. They have decade or decades more to live, times to cherish together. I also fret over the toll the economy is taking from this. The more cases and deaths climb, the more impact there is to the economy.

I do not fret over missing one college football season, not as much as you at least.
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What other causes of death do you allow to cause you to fret over?
 
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