Official Louisvile Postgame Thread

As bad as we looked vs a good team today, we are good enough to win all the remaining games except Miami, ND, and (don’t kill me) Ugag.
That will not win the ACC, but would be a 7 win season before bowls.
Have another bear as ain’t gunna be no 7 win season.
 
After a loss it is always interesting to read the comments on what we need. We need the same things every other team needs. Everybody knows what is needed. Dominate OL Great QB play. Great coaching. 5 star receivers. On and on. The reality is we will likely never get what we need to be playoff bound. We are not wired that way. But I cheer just as hard and enjoy as best possible and even watch more of the semi pro games as pure entertainment but a I have accepted that we are among the 100’or so teams that know what is needed. We are just in the crowd that cannot get what is needed. As always I sure hope I am wrong and the big surprise hits as we are playoff bound. .
Don’t tell that to the few 4 and 5 star players we’ve got committed to us for next year. Gotta start somewhere. If we had our original starting 5 OLs yesterday I think would have been more effective. There’s a clear drop off from the 1st to 2nd teamers on the OL.
 
Without looking too deeply into stats, my impression is that our WRs are doing pretty good at catching balls. Seems like most everything catchable that’s thrown to them, they catch. That’s a positive. Malik has looked good, and Boyd has been a pleasant surprise. Some other TE had a couple of clutch catches against Louisville, too.

I would like to see a little less of the horizontal passing game and some more intermediate to deep balls, though. Let’s open up the passing game a little.

JRjr
 
Honestly Key needs an experienced HC to work with him on what he needs to do better in crucial in game decisions. Curry had that with Dodd and it helped him become a better HC. If O’Leary was closer, I would love for him to work with Key to improve his decision making,

Not that far from Lake Oconee to The Flats, or is O'Leary living elsewhere?
 
For the love of ööööing god how many times do I have to explain this? Vegas picks the spread to try to make exactly 50% of the bets for one team and 50% for the other.

The Vegas line is not a proxy for the likelihood of a win.
I loathe this narrative; always false but sounds true. The line is 100% what they expect to happen. The line MOVES based on action to try to get even play but the initial line is the actual expectation of result. That’s why ESPN % winner prediction never changes due to FPI but the Vegas expectation is static initially but fluid based on public perception.
 
I loathe this narrative; always false but sounds true. The line is 100% what they expect to happen. The line MOVES based on action to try to get even play but the initial line is the actual expectation of result. That’s why ESPN % winner prediction never changes due to FPI but the Vegas expectation is static initially but fluid based on public perception.
To me this is clearly true for another reason: If the sports books were just basing their lines on splitting the betting money evenly, a merely good bettor would be able to win a ton of money because they only have to be smarter than the median bettor.
 
Without looking too deeply into stats, my impression is that our WRs are doing pretty good at catching balls. Seems like most everything catchable that’s thrown to them, they catch. That’s a positive. Malik has looked good, and Boyd has been a pleasant surprise. Some other TE had a couple of clutch catches against Louisville, too.

I would like to see a little less of the horizontal passing game and some more intermediate to deep balls, though. Let’s open up the passing game a little.

JRjr
Loving the tight ends being a legit part of the passing game. We haven't had that since Chan.
 
We made the same O play calling mistakes in this game that we did in the UL game last year. We forgot to mix in plays that stretched UL sideline to sideline and kept trying to run up the middle while UL packed the box. Did not seem like we were doing as much jet motion with our speedier players to stretch the D sideline to sideline.

Our O-line may be improved, but it is still not good enough to reliably run over people in obvious straight ahead running situations nor to pass protect in obvious passing situations. Our QB has a strong arm that allows us to stretch the field horizontally and vertically and the running ability to take up an extra man. Need to keep the opposing D spread out and on their heels by mixing things up. [Easier to say it than to do it]

Special teams....Missed FG and a blocked FG scoop and score. 3 for 7 on FG's this year. Admittedly, the attempt have been long on average and 1 is a block.

Turnovers, where have you gone?....We have ZERO INT's and only TWO FUMBLES RECOVERIES through 5 games, almost half a season. What's worse is that we have only caused 2 fumbles. We are lucky that we recovered both of them.

On the flip side, we have only thrown 1 INT and lost 1 fumble on O in 5 games which is outstanding, but we do not realize the benefit because we are equally bad at generating TO's.
 
We made the same O play calling mistakes in this game that we did in the UL game last year. We forgot to mix in plays that stretched UL sideline to sideline and kept trying to run up the middle while UL packed the box. Did not seem like we were doing as much jet motion with our speedier players to stretch the D sideline to sideline.

Our O-line may be improved, but it is still not good enough to reliably run over people in obvious straight ahead running situations nor to pass protect in obvious passing situations. Our QB has a strong arm that allows us to stretch the field horizontally and vertically and the running ability to take up an extra man. Need to keep the opposing D spread out and on their heels by mixing things up. [Easier to say it than to do it]

Special teams....Missed FG and a blocked FG scoop and score. 3 for 7 on FG's this year. Admittedly, the attempt have been long on average and 1 is a block.

Turnovers, where have you gone?....We have ZERO INT's and only TWO FUMBLES RECOVERIES through 5 games, almost half a season. What's worse is that we have only caused 2 fumbles. We are lucky that we recovered both of them.

On the flip side, we have only thrown 1 INT and lost 1 fumble on O in 5 games which is outstanding, but we do not realize the benefit because we are equally bad at generating TO's.
We just have to pass in obvious run situations, and run in obvious pass situations! Someone tell the coaches.
 
Piss poor OL play, missed FG, poor special teams (blocked FG), our RB corps is limping. Three 4th and 1 situations and we can’t punch it in. We deserved to lose today. We could have won. We stalled twice in the red zone as a result of the 4th and shorts. We should have run Pyron instead. He actually runs harder than Maddox. #71 on the OL is filling in and got man handled. I wish we’d run an I formation with a fullback but we have none with the short yardage situations. This was a winnable game that got way away from us.
Best take so far in this thread ... I know I'm a few days behind. I needed time before hopping on here and getting too upset about things.
 
Our O-line may be improved, but it is still not good enough to reliably run over people in obvious straight ahead running situations nor to pass protect in obvious passing situations. Our QB has a strong arm that allows us to stretch the field horizontally and vertically and the running ability to take up an extra man. Need to keep the opposing D spread out and on their heels by mixing things up. [Easier to say it than to do it]
Not sure what to believe about some of this stuff when I hear different people state opposite things as facts.

I hear some people say that while our run blocking is suspect, our pass blocking is OK (0 sacks allowed). Could be that they’re not looking at hurries and King is doing a good job of getting the ball out and avoiding sacks.

I hear some people say that King has a somewhat weak arm on deep throws with a long wind-up and under throws (like the deep ball to Singleton Saturday where he had to slow up and wait).

I feel like we’ve got some dudes banged up - Haynes hasn’t looked 100%, King looks a little banged up sometimes, several RBs have gone MIA, even Malik has been slow to get up after catches a few times. I hope that with an extra week of rest and a (probably) less physical game against Duke, we can get some things cleaned up. These next couple of games are pretty important to our chances at a .500 or better record.

JRjr
 
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