Official Saturday Games Thread Episode 3: Air Force, Army, National Guard

gtzulu said:
The number I remember is you have a 62% chance of winning the game if you win the coin toss.

So your chance of winning goes down by 25% if you lose the coin toss: (0.5 - (1 - 0.62)) / 0.5 ~= 0.25 . That's a big difference!
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Not sure how much we all care about this, but here's an analysis of the issue, now several years old. There's a lot in there if this is a topic of interest to you, but here's the part I would bring to your attention.
So, it is possible that the strong belief held by many that a defense first strategy provides a large advantage was formed in the first few years of overtime games and still presently continues, even though the evidence of the past six years do not support this belief.
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JJacket said:
Clemson is good, great on defense, but I think we have a better chance of beating them this season than last.
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Gotta force multiple turnovers on defense and sustain drives on defense. If Clemson commits 8+ to all-out run blitz like Venables has in the past, we've got to be willing and able to make them pay with big pays through the passing game. I think it's pretty unlikely that we beat them, but anything can happen.
 
gtfan088 said:
You don't think 55% vs. 45% is significant? Mmk. Your own link points out in its data analysis that this is a significant difference.
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No, you didn't read the entire report, which takes into consideration home-field advantage, point spreads, etc. The bottom line, they conclude:
The results of the analysis provide marginal support for the widely-held conventional wisdom that starting on defense in overtime is advantageous.
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I agree it is helpful to go second. But it's not a big deal if you don't. As they say:
Because winning the coin toss provided only the slightest advantage, the college football overtime process can likely be considered a fair process.
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I can't read any of it. ResearchGate gives an infinite CAPTCHA loop in Tor Browser. Maybe later...
 
18in32 said:
No, you didn't read the entire report, which takes into consideration home-field advantage, point spreads, etc. The bottom line, they conclude:

I agree it is helpful to go second. But it's not a big deal if you don't. As they say:
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You're right that I didn't read the entire thing. I'd be interested to see what the stats look like for teams that are on offense second for that particular OT period, which is a different measure than who wins the toss. Fwiw, Texas won the toss last night. They lost in the 2nd OT when they had the ball first.

But I agree with your earlier point that blocking, tackling, coaching, etc. are still the most integral component of who wins -- but virtually any coach in the country would rather know how many points their offense needs on a possession if given the option. Doesn't mean that knowledge will necessarily propel you to victory, but it can give you a significant tactical advantage in many cases.
 
I got an idea, lets have one team on offense on one end of the stadium and the other on offense on the other and let them alternate plays. That would negate most of the advantage of going second on offense in overtime. :heelclick:

Or we could have each team try 5 field goals and the one who gets the most wins. You know, like soccer.
 
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