Just because I was curious, I looked up UCF versus P5 schools (and recent common opponents) over the last 5 years.
They're 4-6 versus P5 since 2015 (2-1 at home, 1-4 away, 1-1 neutral).
Since 2017 when they got good, they are 4-2 versus P5 (2-0 at home, 1-1 away, 1-1 neutral).
Seems like they're better at home than on the road (but with the reduced crowd, there's not much home field advantage to be had this week). Seems like they've feasted on .500 and below P5 teams, other than that Auburn bowl win (but it's hard to know where we stack up - we may well be a sub-.500 P5 team this year).
Against shared opponents last year, they were WAY better than us offensively and comparable defensively.
So, they're pretty good but shouldn't scare an average-or-better P5 team, particularly when UCF is on the road. The primary wildcard is that we're still in the middle of our rebuild and don't really know if we're any good yet. (Other factors, like injuries, and the fact that this is our second game while it's their first, might also factor into things.) This game will be an interesting yardstick. Beat UCF and we might be a bowl team. Lose to them and we're probably sub-.500 again.
2019 (10-3)
Beat Stanford (4-8) at home 45-27
Lost to Pitt (8-5) away 35-34 (GT lost to Pitt at home 20-10)
Beat Temple away 63-21 (GT lost to Temple away 24-2)
Beat USF at home 34-7 (GT beat USF at home 14-10)
2018 (12-1)
Beat Pitt (7-7) at home 45-14 (GT lost to Pitt away 24-19)
Lost to #6 LSU (10-3) 40-32 in a bowl game (without UCF's starting QB)
Beat USF away 38-10 (GT lost to USF away 49-38)
2017 (13-0)
Ducked GT at home due to light breeze
Beat Maryland (4-8) away 38-10
Beat #7 Auburn (10-4) 34-27 in a bowl game
2016 (6-7)
Lost to #5 Michigan (10-3) away 51-14
Lost to Maryland (6-7) at home 30-24 (2 OT)
2015 (0-12)
Lost to Stanford (12-2) away 31-7
Lost to South Carolina (3-9) away 31-14
JRjr