OPTIMISM/PESSIMISM/LOGIC

[ahsoisee]

I read a couple of posts on the Hive regarding optimism and pessimism. Some people just don't get it! It is not one or the other, there is also logic involved.

Last year, I predicted Tech would lose four games while the majority were talking MNC for Tech. This year I have predicted an exceptional year for Tech, when most prognosticators have us no better than fourth in the conference.

It is neither optimism nor pessimism, it is dealing with logic in my mind.

I have a post further back in history on Stingtalk where I showed the record of GT with and without Friegden. O'Leary was 0-4 against UGA without Friegden and 3-1 with Freigden. George's record without Friegden was 17-18 and 34-13 with Friegden.

My logic told me we would not do as well without Friegden's high powered offense to overcome the passing defense efficiency.

Was it pessimism, luck, or logic last year?

This year, I expect us to do better. I think we will be one of the top teams on defense against both the pass and run. Statistics prove Tenuta has been an excellent defensive coach at every place he has been. Also we have upgraded our other defensive coaches.

Statistics prove that Gailey has been a good offensive minded coach at every place he has served. Couple that with an excellent offensive coach in Nix, and the return of O'Brien and logic tells me we will have a good team this year. With a few breaks, we could excell.

Will my logic prove out to be right? I am out on a limb, so we will see. The point is that I appear to have been pessimistic last year and optimistic this year. Actually, I am doing nothing more than using logic.

Personally, I think the person is foolish that bets his paycheck on a pair of deuces.

 

[GoldenTornado]

I think most everyone thinks of himself as using logic and trying to be as rational as possible.

Well, most GT fans do anyway. I don't speak for anyone over to the East.

I liked us to go 10-2 last year. I think if 9/11 hadn't happened and we'd played FSU on 9/15, we would have beaten them and we probably wouldn't have lost four subsequent games.

I believe we had a quality staff last year. The Seattle Bowl proved to me that they were a good bunch of coaches.

The three week layoff before Clemson hurt us a lot, and not catching FSU early hurt us a lot as well. After a couple of tough losses, it seemed to me that the team started losing confidence and mailed in the second half of the season. Maybe that's not what happened, but that's the way it looked to me watching the games.

Admittedly that shows a coaching weakness, but without missing the 9/15 game I'm not sure that weakness would have been exposed last year.

This year, I agree with you that we should have a good team and I agree with your reasons. I think we'll actually be better than last year.

However, I think the ACC is on the rise, Georgia I think is as good as we are and legitimately should better than they were last year with another year under Richt, and FSU is likely back to form. That combined with playing nearly all of our swing games on the road makes our schedule much tougher than it was last year.

So, logic tells me that even with a better team than last year and potentially better coaching, we probably will post a worse record than the 10-2 I expected to have last year.

Is the potential there to go 11-2 or even 12-1? Sure. It's easily possible. But we'd have to win a lot of tough road games to do it. There are only two teams on our schedule equal to or better than us on paper, but the gap between us and the next half-dozen teams behind us is not that big. History shows me that you don't always beat every moderate underdog -- especially on the road.

So what's a reasonable prediction to me? I can't decide between 8-4 or 9-3. So I'm going with 9-4 after the bowl, and a final ranking around #20. That sounds about right to me for this team.

 

[ahsoisee]

I completely disagree with the 911 incident causing our ills last year. However, I completley agree with your assessment that the ACC will be stronger this year. Last year, we had all the advantages of a great home schedule and the fact of a schedule loaded with first year coaches in the ACC.

This year all the coaches will have another year under their belt with their respective teams, and Tech's schedule will be much tougher, plus the fact we now have the first year coach.

So, I disagree with your assessment of last year and agree with your assessment of this year. On a more logical note, looking at our changes, a stronger ACC, and another year's tenure for last year's first-time ACC coaches, 8-4 or 9-3 looks about right.

However, with a few breaks, I can see us beating that spread, but the breaks will have to go our way.

 

[Master B]

For whatever it's worth, Bobby Bowden said on the radio the other day, WTTE: 'if we had played Georgia Tech on the week of September 11th last year, we would have lost to them.'

 

[JacketFanPCB]

Recent history has shown to me that (barring big injuries) we should do well this year. I point this out because I think all the important intangibles will fall into place. Team chemistry, senior leadership, and heart will assert themselves at the right moments this year and I think we'll benefit as a result.

Yes it's true that we've got a tough road schedule in addition to a couple toughies at home and many games could go either way. It's also true that the ACC is coming along and is much improved over recent years. You can't overlook ANYone. That's why I think those intangibles will play such a huge role. I think that we've got alot to prove this year and with the talent and coaching we have, this could well be our year. I'm not gonna go out on a limb with a record, but at WORST I think we should get 8 wins.

I have a MUCH better feeling about this year than last. Last year it seemed like something was just waiting to trip us up and we had to find out what it was. Well it was SEVERAL things, not the least of which was 9/11. Here's to OVERCOMING any adversaries we face this year!!

 

[ahsoisee]

Master B, I hate to be blunt, but I really don't care what Bobby Bowden said. His guess is no better than anyone else's guess.

We should have had a better chance of defeating FSU later in the year than at the beginning. We were playing at their house and they would have been undefeated at that time. That would have perpetuated the thinking of their invincibility.

Since they had already lost some games by the time we played them, they had become mortal again. They knew and everyone else knew they could be beaten. We lost that game the same as the other games we lost, on defense. With Friegden gone, we could not overcome the sins of the defense.

It was only after O'Leary had departed that Roof was free to call all his own plays. The game against LSU and all of last season without Friegden, showed a weakness to overcome a poor defense. The game against Stanford without O'Leary again indicated that O'Leary was part of the defensive problem.

For Friegden to take a team that had struggled mightily in the ACC in the recent past, and win the ACC outright in his first year is another indication 911 had nothing to do with Tech's woes. All the teams in America had to deal with 911.

It cannot be proven that 911 had anything to do with Tech's demise. There is not any evidence that points that way. It is nothing more than a cop-out for those wanting an excuse other than the one that has stared them in the face.

I have already produced the facts about O'Leary's won-loss record without Friegden and with Friegden. Couple that with the loss to FSU without Friegden (LSU was an underdog to Tech), last season's record without Friegden, the win against Stanford withour O'leary, and Friegden's success at Maryland last year, and it should be plain that all the evidence points to the loss of Friegden rather than the 911 incident.

 

[beeware]

ahso,
You are full of 'shiite' on this 9-11 deal with FSU. FSU was a pitiful team early in the year. The week after we would have played them, North Carolina ( a team that we later manhandled) stomped a mudhole in their 'arses'. It should have and WOULD have been the mudhole that we would have stomped in them.
There is no question we would have beaten FSU if we had played them when originally scheduled....and this is true whether or not you have your paycheck direct deposited or not.

 

[mm42]

I am a huge fan of Friedgen, but I think the O'Leary with and without Friedgen argument is really lame.

The main driver in the difference "with and without" is including O'Leary's 1st 2 seasons of mediocre rebuilding years.

If we missed Ralph so desperately much, why was there virtually no dropoff in offensive production? (33.8 points/game in 2000, 31.8 points/game in 2001.)

Bill O'Brien did an outstanding job last year, as evidenced by that statistic. He also was nothing short of BRILLIANT in the one game we know for sure he actually called by himself (Seattle Bowl).

 

[Master B]

I'm actually with beeware on this one in regards to the effect 9-11 had on the game. You can just about throw out the game we actually played against FSU. We were going through the motions and had thrown in the towel on the season. There's no telling if we would have won the game had we played then, but I can guarantee that the effort would have been different. Although you don't care about his opinion, I think Bobby Bowden would agree based on his quote.

 

[bellyseries]

Ahso, I think you need to defend your notion that 9/11 did not affect us. I have no doubt that it did, on several levels. On the football level, surely Golden Tornado is right. FSU improved hugely over the year, and by the time we played them, our season was over. The rhythm of the season, a rhythm us fans, and surely the players and coaches, had been anticipating since Spring, was gone.
And though it is trivial compared to other realities of 9/11, that event had to have a demoralizing effect on our team, and everybody else's.

 

[bugboy]

I do believe there was a 911 effect, but I'm not sure what it was. I certainly felt we were good enough to beat FSU early in the year. Not playing them at that time probably hurt us.

After Smith was injured, our defense completely fell apart against Dantzler. I don't know if I've ever seen a collapse like that. Then, the malaise just kinda spread to the entire team. The Maryland game featured an offensive collapse with all the turnovers, then the ridiculous prevent defense that allowed them to score at the end to tie it in regulation.

Then, against NC State, we missed 5 field goals. That's sort of a special teams collapse. Then, against UVA, our defense once again did not adjust to a few plays that UVA ran over and over.

After that loss, we mailed it in.

To me, there was no doubt that our defensive staff was not up to the task last year (including GOL). If nothing else, I hope we now have a staff that can adjust to things during the game.

I know the offensive stats didn't drop too much last year, but it was not the same effective offense as we saw in '98 to '00. We should have put up more than 13 points against Syracuse. We should have put up more than 17 against MD. We should have scored more against FSU and UGA. It was great at times, but at other times, it was spotty and predictable. Last year, we relied too much on Burns and it kept us from putting games away.

I really think that this year we'll go somewhere around 10-2, maybe 9-3.

 

[ConyersJacket]

9/11 hurt us. FSU was significantly better at the end of the year. They were two different teams. UAB was very close to beating FSU at FSU at the start of the season. We would have probably won the game early in the season.

 

[pjjacket]

9/11 was imho a problem. Yes, all teams were subjected to the cancellation of a game but football is predicated on anticipation of playing certain opponents. When the F$U game was lost on 9/15 the whole prepartion scheme of GT was in chaos because as we know the next weekend was a bye. Teams must play to be sharp and GT was denied the opportunity by the tragic 9/11 event to remain in prime game shape.

I don't know if we would have prevailed against the 'Noles but I beleieve we could have been a better team on 9/15.

Ahso, good to have your fantastic insight back in full operation on StinGTalk.

 

[ahsoisee]

Thanks PJ, I am still posting from my daughter's computer. I still have no ISP yet for my computer.

BeeWare, that sure is a lame statement. You stated, "there is no question, we would have beaten FSU prior to the 911 incident".

You, I, Bobby Bowden, nor any other person in the whole world could prove we would have beaten FSU at that time. That is the reason the games are played, to see who the winner will be.

I don't know what the oddsmakers had established prior to that date, but I bet the oddsmakers had us losing to FSU prior to the 911 date. Also, the fact that North Carolina beat them does not mean that Tech would have beaten them.

North Carolina had a much better defense than we had. That was their edge in the beginning of the year against FSU.

Your statement does not hold water and there is no way you can prove Tech would have beat FSU prior to the 911 incident.

 

[ramblinwise1]

Originally posted by mm42:

If we missed Ralph so desperately much, why was there virtually no dropoff in offensive production? (33.8 points/game in 2000, 31.8 points/game in 2001.)
.

<font size="2" face="Arial, Verdana, Sans-Serif">Take out the 70 points in the Navy game then recompute the comparison. There is no doubt we missed the Fridge and no doubt that GOL missed the Fridge.

 

[GoldenTornado]

Take out the 70 points in the Navy game then recompute the comparison. There is no doubt we missed the Fridge and no doubt that GOL missed the Fridge.

<font size="2" face="Arial, Verdana, Sans-Serif">Does O'Brien also get the pre-ACL Godsey and the 2000 O-line with Brent Key and Chris Brown?

In two games that O'Brien called, we had fabulous offensive efforts and put up more than enough points to win -- and we didn't win because the defense blew it.

If we'd won those two games, I believe we might have seen a different and more motivated team at the end of the season. Perhaps we would have seen something more like the team we saw in Seattle.

I've seen more than a few Friedgen games where the offense performed no better than in the other three losses last year. Wake Forest in 99 was awful. So was Miami in the Gator Bowl. Clemson in 98 was pretty bad. We turned the ball over 6 times versus a 3-8 UNC team at home, and had to beat them in overtime.

Moreover, in all of those games in 99 we overall had better pieces than O'Brien had to work with last year. Hamilton, White and Campbell, and those O-lines with Key, Brown, Carman, Page then Schmidgall was a more talented overall crew than Coach O'Brien had last year.

It wasn't so much talent as inexperience, especially on the O-line, last year.

Better pieces are back in place this year, but I'm worried about the QB. I am waiting to see what O'Brien's skills are with the QB's. This will be the first year we start a QB that he groomed on his own.

 

[beeware]

Originally posted by ahsoisee:
Thanks PJ, I am still posting from my daughter's computer. I still have no ISP yet for my computer.

BeeWare, that sure is a lame statement. You stated, "there is no question, we would have beaten FSU prior to the 911 incident".

You, I, Bobby Bowden, nor any other person in the whole world could prove we would have beaten FSU at that time. That is the reason the games are played, to see who the winner will be.

I don't know what the oddsmakers had established prior to that date, but I bet the oddsmakers had us losing to FSU prior to the 911 date. Also, the fact that North Carolina beat them does not mean that Tech would have beaten them.

North Carolina had a much better defense than we had. That was their edge in the beginning of the year against FSU.

Your statement does not hold water and there is no way you can prove Tech would have beat FSU prior to the 911 incident.

<font size="2" face="Arial, Verdana, Sans-Serif">ahso,
Like I said, you are full of 'shiite' on this.
We were a better team than North Carolina PERIOD. And Ted Roof's defense certainly outplayed Tanuta's when we whipped them like a yard dog on national TV. FSU was a much better team at the end of the year than they were when we would have played them.
You must have had your 'Braine' direct deposited on this one. But thanks...your so-called logic is ALWAYS good for a horse laugh.

 

[Beesnut]

The past is in the past. What was already is. Let's play this season and see what happens. After Saturday I really think we have a chance to make some noise on the national scene this year.

 

[ramblinwise1]

For what its worth, I also think we would have had a much better chance of winning the game if it had been held on 9/11....

 

[ahsoisee]

RamblinWise1, I have no trouble with anyone making a statement like yours. It is your opinion, and it is as good as mine or anyone else's opinion.