Path to the Orange Bowl

Ish said:
they were
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Both games were winnable. We should have actually won against Pitt. That game came down bad bounce. We played Miami well, except for the two minutes of total derp. Whether or not Miami stepped off the gas after we gifted them two touchdowns is a thing.

I still think that we can actually win out.
 
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DressCheeseSideSeaboard said:
Both Pitt and Miami should have been winnable games for us.
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Miami I can live with - they forced two big mistakes with pressure and played us basically even other than that in our house. They deserved that win.

We had Pitt dead to rights with a 3rd and 9 deep in their territory up 7 with under 4 minutes to go. If Griffin doesn't jump that route and/or deflect that pass it's an incompletion and we ice away that game. We deserved that win and they got a gift they did nothing to deserve. It's a shame because the atmosphere around the program would be a lot different if we're 6-2 (3-2), in control of our own Coastal Destiny, and possibly ranked.
 
gtrower said:
... It's a shame because the atmosphere around the program would be a lot different if we're 6-2 (3-2), in control of our own Coastal Destiny, and possibly ranked.
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Very true ...one fluke deflected pass for a TD and subsequent loss that came with it has totally changed the dynamic of this season to this point.
 
gtrower said:
Miami I can live with - they forced two big mistakes with pressure and played us basically even other than that in our house. They deserved that win.

We had Pitt dead to rights with a 3rd and 9 deep in their territory up 7 with under 4 minutes to go. If Griffin doesn't jump that route and/or deflect that pass it's an incompletion and we ice away that game. We deserved that win and they got a gift they did nothing to deserve. It's a shame because the atmosphere around the program would be a lot different if we're 6-2 (3-2), in control of our own Coastal Destiny, and possibly ranked.
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Couldn't you flip BC the other way just as easily. We had to convert 4th and 19 to have a chance to score on the final drive.

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cyclejacket said:
Couldn't you flip BC the other way just as easily. We had to convert 4th and 19 to have a chance to score on the final drive.
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Yeah, if we're honest, we probably win Pitt and lose BC and we're still at 5-3. And instead, we're complaining that any team with a month to prepare can beat our offense.
 
beej67 said:
Yeah, if we're honest, we probably win Pitt and lose BC and we're still at 5-3. And instead, we're complaining that any team with a month to prepare can beat our offense.
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This would have made it easier to win a tie breaker in our division
 
cyclejacket said:
Couldn't you flip BC the other way just as easily. We had to convert 4th and 19 to have a chance to score on the final drive.

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I see your point. The difference I would point out would be we just went out and completed 4th and 19 on our own - we didn't need any help. BC needed an errant throw to be tipped to their guy who was subsequently open.

But again, I see your point. We're 2-1 in nail biter games.
 
The path to the Orange Bowl is going down I-75 and then exiting on the Turnpike. Once you get there, GT will not be playing in it.
 
beej67 said:
Yeah, if we're honest, we probably win Pitt and lose BC and we're still at 5-3. And instead, we're complaining that any team with a month to prepare can beat our offense.
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There is also the two fumbles against Miami. But really the luck thing can always be spliced two different ways, depending on if you're optimist or pessimist. Last year, several games were unlucky both in the bounce of the ball sense and then with the injuries. The FSU game had the block-six but also a key interception in the endzone. In the long-run, the coin flips approach 50%.
 
gtrower said:
I see your point. The difference I would point out would be we just went out and completed 4th and 19 on our own - we didn't need any help. BC needed an errant throw to be tipped to their guy who was subsequently open.

But again, I see your point. We're 2-1 in nail biter games.
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If we're counting games that were evenly played, I'll go ahead and throw Miami in there. We outgained them and the score was tied if not for two fluke plays. We won 2 with good luck and lost 2 with bad luck. It does indeed even out in the long run.
 
johncu said:
If we're counting games that were evenly played, I'll go ahead and throw Miami in there. We outgained them and the score was tied if not for two fluke plays. We won 2 with good luck and lost 2 with bad luck. It does indeed even out in the long run.
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Is bad pass protection leading to a fumble really a fluke play? It's been a recurring theme for us. That time it just turned out worse than normal, but it's still something we brought on ourselves.
 
andrew said:
Is bad pass protection leading to a fumble really a fluke play? It's been a recurring theme for us. That time it just turned out worse than normal, but it's still something we brought on ourselves.
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It's just as fluky as bad pass defense resulting in tipping the ball directly to your opponent. The fact that they scored directly off of it is fluky, especially when it happened twice in a row. Teams make lots of mistakes throughout a game, but when one mistake ends up randomly amplified so much, it's fluky.
 
johncu said:
It's just as fluky as bad pass defense resulting in tipping the ball directly to your opponent. The fact that they scored directly off of it is fluky, especially when it happened twice in a row. Teams make lots of mistakes throughout a game, but when one mistake ends up randomly amplified so much, it's fluky.
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Hm, I see what you're saying but I kind of disagree. To me, a fluke implies that it wasn't really your fault; you did everything pretty much right, but bad luck results in a negative outcome. Like in your scenario, "The defender had good coverage, he got a hand on the ball, but unfortunately another receiver was in the right place at the right time and caught it. Chalk it up to bad luck; there's not really anything to fix."

It's not like we would say on these plays, "We didn't block the pass rusher, we didn't communicate that he was free to the QB, but unfortunately there was a defender there to grab the loose ball and score. Chalk it up to bad luck; there's not really anything to fix." On both of those plays, we played very poorly, so to disregard them as flukes so that we can say we played Miami evenly seems off to me.
 
andrew said:
Hm, I see what you're saying but I kind of disagree. To me, a fluke implies that it wasn't really your fault; you did everything pretty much right, but bad luck results in a negative outcome. Like in your scenario, "The defender had good coverage, he got a hand on the ball, but unfortunately another receiver was in the right place at the right time and caught it. Chalk it up to bad luck; there's not really anything to fix."

It's not like we would say on these plays, "We didn't block the pass rusher, we didn't communicate that he was free to the QB, but unfortunately there was a defender there to grab the loose ball and score. Chalk it up to bad luck; there's not really anything to fix." On both of those plays, we played very poorly, so to disregard them as flukes so that we can say we played Miami evenly seems off to me.
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Luck is definitely not satisfying. In Moneyball, one of the baseball stat nerds was curious about how to rate pitchers without regard to fielding. So he looked at only strikeouts/(strikeouts + walks + HBP). The top names were all Maddox, Randy Johnson and other hall of fame pitchers. The stat looked much more indicative of pitching ability than ERA and especially wins/losses/saves.

Even within the baseball nerd community, the conclusion from the data seemed wrong. Did the pitcher really not affect whether a hit ball is a single or is hit to a fielder? It turns out the pitcher really didn't control singles. The pitcher does have some control over extra-base hits, but simply where the ball is hit affects those as well.

The luck factor is never really satisfying, though there is much less luck in football than in baseball. Turnovers overall is generally 50% luck and 50% correlated from game to game. Interceptions are the most skill-based, but the interceptions-to-pass-breakup ratio is random. Good defenses intercept the ball more often because they break up more passes. Whether pass breakups become an interception is luck-based. Fumbles forced have some minor correlation, but whether fumbles forced are recovered by the defense is completely luck-based.

As far as the Miami game, Miami would have probably still won if those two plays were merely drive-ending sacks rather than fumble sixes. If JT is sacked, or fumbles with GT recovering, it's still not a good play obviously.
 
I dont think all fumbles->fumbles recovered is random luck

The sack-fumble specifically has a high chance of recovery because the D often has a numerical advantage and also an athletic advantage with blitzing LBs and DEs vs Oline and QB
 
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