Phil Steele says...

We suck in bowls. Mullen actually has the 3O inb his playbook. I'm not at all confident about this matchup.
 
The W-L record in bowls is obviously what it is, but I don't think we are nearly as bad as it's made out to be.

2008 - only really horrible game
2009 - Iowa NFL D
2010 - We were 6-6 playing an option team with our backup QB
2011 - this game should have been a W. Lost in OT
2012 - Win
2013 - Vad Lee experiment fail

I'm probably rationalizing, but I don't think our bowl record is at all relevant this year.
 
The only thing I am worried about is that our D has sucked against the read option all year. I expect Dak to have a big game. Our OLB have to get better at slipping blocks if we want to hold MSU under 30.
 
I don't love or hate Phil Steele but he's getting a bit of a raw deal here.

This year he picked GT higher in the coastal than any other preseason rag or poll that I saw, and his primary justification was, paraphrasing, "GT almost always exceeds most peoples' expectations and they haven't finished worse than 4-4 in conference in 20 years", which seemed pretty reasonable.

IMO he has also always maintained from the start that our offense would work. I expect his rag next year will be pretty high on the quality of our coaching staff.

My biggest problem with Phil Steele is his incredible love affair with UGA and the SEC. The former has kinda slipped lately, and the latter is only to be expected given the profit motive that also drives ESecPN.
 
Phil Steele has 37 confidence points on Mississippi State winning the Orange Bowl which is the next to highest you can have. The only one he has higher is Stanford over Maryland at 38.
 
WracerX said:
The only thing I am worried about is that our D has sucked against the read option all year. I expect Dak to have a big game. Our OLB have to get better at slipping blocks if we want to hold MSU under 30.
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This is my concern. It is one thing to play your assignment, but another to be athletic enough to get off blocks and make plays. I think it is the second part we've struggled at this year and that is a big concern for this game.
 
There is no harm in trying to pick bowl games. We all love to do it. Since there is so much time between the last regular game and the bowls, why not spend it speculating on what will happen in the games?

That said, a monkey with a dart board will be as accurate. No one knows how these games will turn out, and that is part of the fun. You get teams which come from different parts of the country with no history. You get teams that show up with no fire for whatever reasons. Some teams seem to have lost their timing during the long layoff.

Steele's pick is as good as a coin toss, but no better.
 
This is the best offense we've had under CPJ. Let's let everyone across the board keep underestimating us.

Our guys can pull this one off.
 
His website looks like it came from the same design gurus that brought us Tech Sideline.
 
gtfan088 said:
When have you been confident about a big game this year?
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FSU.

I thought for sure Winston would take a quarter off and throw us at least one ball.

That's pretty much it. I was not confident for:
VPISU
Miami
Duke
Clemson
UGA
(I actually was confident for UNC, but that's not a big game IMO)

As accurately alluded to above by others .. "beej's confidence" is not a great indicator of outcome.
 
GT flunkout said:
The W-L record in bowls is obviously what it is, but I don't think we are nearly as bad as it's made out to be.

2008 - only really horrible game
2009 - Iowa NFL D
2010 - We were 6-6 playing an option team with our backup QB
2011 - this game should have been a W. Lost in OT
2012 - Win
2013 - Vad Lee experiment fail

I'm probably rationalizing, but I don't think our bowl record is at all relevant this year.
Click to expand...

2008 - agreed, plus LSU's NFL caliber D.
2009 - agreed. That was a legit front 7.
2010 - we also dropped, what, two, three punts? Even with our record and Tevin at QB, should have won that game.
2011 - Groh!!!!!
2012 - Take that, preseason No. 1
2013 - Nkiemdiche made a difference. A large one.
 
beej67 said:
FSU.

I thought for sure Winston would take a quarter off and throw us at least one ball.

That's pretty much it. I was not confident for:
VPISU
Miami
Duke
Clemson
UGA
(I actually was confident for UNC, but that's not a big game IMO)

As accurately alluded to above by others .. "beej's confidence" is not a great indicator of outcome.
Click to expand...

Yeah you shouldn't be confident about any game. You may have won us the game against uga with your advice on pregame monkey business but you cost us the ACC championship. Do your job!
 
I'll add that I think most people including those not in our fanbase was confident about that game. I don't think we expected the true #4 to come out and play us. They played with almost no mistakes yet we were still able to hold them to only field goals in the second half and only lost by 2. Sometimes the ball doesn't bounce your way and you don't always execute perfectly. I'm very proud of the Jackets.
 
GT flunkout said:
The W-L record in bowls is obviously what it is, but I don't think we are nearly as bad as it's made out to be.

2008 - only really horrible game
2009 - Iowa NFL D
2010 - We were 6-6 playing an option team with our backup QB
2011 - this game should have been a W. Lost in OT
2012 - Win
2013 - Vad Lee experiment fail

I'm probably rationalizing, but I don't think our bowl record is at all relevant this year.
Click to expand...

Yep, we have not done well in bowls and the truth be known our one win was vs a 2nd string QB and a disinterested them
-fact-looking back at stats--our OFF has not matched even the season average in any bowl and some times well below
we have got to prove we can break the pattern,without Smelter that will be hard
 
I believe our boys will want it more than them. Sure they'll want to turn things around and "salvage" the season after coming down from being #1 in the country to losing to bama and their in-state rival and put out of contention. However, that same reason plus our guys always fighting an uphill battle to gain respect will be our advantage. This is just a feeling obviously.
 
I listen to Phil Steele's weekly friday college football betting show on local radio. Let me tell you, any analysis he does is way deeper than you guys seem to give him credit. He is a Vegas sharp who plays statistics and trends. This is a bad matchup for us both statistically (MSU offense vs GT defense) and in the trend line (GT bowl record under CPJ). In terms of betting, its a very high confidence play thus I see why we're on his second highest confidence number.

So is this the year the trend reverses? We've already reversed a half dozen seemingly written in stone trends this year. I cant wait to see this question answered in the bowl game and my money is on Tech. CPJ and our program seemed to have turned a corner. The only thing tempering my enthusiasm is our defensive performance in the ACCCG. I thought we done with the horrible defensive performances but maybe I have to credit FSU for playing desperately to their potential in a do or die game?
 
Yeah, Phil Steele likes the SEC but no more than historical numbers would warrant. His preseason analysis is about the only stuff out there that's worth reading.

He's wrong about us though, we will win.
 
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