Discussion in 'Football' started by ScionOfSouthland, Oct 8, 2019.
The Overall Team Stats are out now. The offensive and defensive stats are not.
Ok so I was bored and went back and did this. I didn't count kneel down drives at the end of half or game, or drives of less than 4 plays and less than 1 min at end of either half that equated to just running out the clock. Really surprising stats as far as points per drive. We're trending better this year than last year, but last year was our worst by far over the last 10.
I'd be willing to bet that the 5.9 YPP on average is much higher in the 2nd half than it is in the 1st half.
That is interesting. Would it be better to remove non-conference games?
Nice! Now all you need is the strength of schedule
Awesome. So we are improving a little, maybe. We've played 2-3 of the weakest teams on our schedule though so we'll see.
I'm curious now what Bama's PPD is, so we can know what the floor is.
That's really interesting data- thx for pulling together. Shows how much CPJ's offense also helped his defense? Looks like the point of inflection was 11 drives. When we kept opponents average at 11 or less- we had a really good / great year. Even if points per drive were relatively high.
I'm guessing that's only because our offense was so good it was always on the field. Our defense was always really bad, so we had to score a LOT to put pressure on opposing offenses to make mistakes. 2014 is a prime example. I think our offense's efficiency really contributed to the turnovers that our defense got.
This running back corps... JP Mason, Howard, Griffin. Wow. Huge gains since year start. We all knew Mason was good but these guys are playing lights out. Shout out to Coach Choice.
Don’t forget the improvement by the O line to give them some room to run.
Anyone who can't see the improvement in Graham and the WRs just has an anti-CGC agenda and is blind.
I think the bulb is getting brighter.
WR's getting a lot better.
Graham is a perfect example of not giving up
And Nathan Cottrell can't see the field. Competition is king.
What you talkin' 'bout, Willis?
It is really hard to tease out which defensive stats are significant and when. Yes, there is interaction with offense. Yes, there is strength of schedule.
There is also changes in the overall game and how the overall game is called by the officials. Rules today favor passing offenses, and that will grow in the years ahead. There is how a team plays in the red zone versus the other end of the field. There is how they play in tight games versus blowouts. There is the play of the first string versus third string. There is play when gassed because no depth versus play when fresh. There are times your defense risks giving up huge plays because they are trying to stop the middle-sized plays. And so on.
There are turnovers. Turnovers are huge. I think we are opportunistic, which makes the long gashes against us in the middle of the field less significant.
Looking at the full yard distribution curve of YPP could tell us something. I can draw a curve where 5 YPP yields nothing but field goals, and another curve where 3 YPP yields touchdowns, enough to win a fair number of games. Imagine a 4 YPP offense where the curve was a single spike at 4, where they get 4 yards every single play. That, with no turnovers or penalties, would convert into an offense that only left the field with touchdowns.
Intuitively, we see improvement in our defensive play. We see better tackling. We see players in position for their assignments. We see tighter coverage, with an occasional lapse by the young player. Yesterday, we saw heroic stands. I am not surprised it has not translated into a change in YPP yet. But we are so deficient in certain measures that it amazes me we are doing as well as we are doing.
1. You know who plays good defense? Seniors. I remember one GT team that had a defensive touchdown in like nine straight games. (Probably 1998 under Edsall, which was a 10-win team.) It also had a ton of seniors. You know how many seniors we have on defense? Hint: it is not eight or nine starters. We are about the opposite of a senior-laden defense.
Curry is developing well, and it is not obvious how much is natural progression and how much is superior coaching. (I suspect it is a measure of both.) He's a 4th year junior, which on this defense passes for a graybeard. Now imagine eight or nine David Curries at the various positions.
2. You know who else plays good defense? Teams with 8 man rotations on their defensive line. We are about the opposite of a deep-rotation defensive line.
3. You know who else plays good defense? Teams that have stability in their defensive schemes. For reasons few if any here dispute, we have had a rotating carousel of defensive coordinators. A lot of the principles are similar or identical, but it is not overarching and staying with the same terminology and scheme for a full career of a player makes that player's play and communications with other players that much better. I can see the current staff changing offensive principles, but I cannot see them changing defensive principles. Collins is going to run his defense. That will give us the stability for the kids to grow under.
So, if we can hold attrition to normal to low (which we have not done well in the recent past) for defenders, we will have a base of 13 defenders for the defense in three years from the 2019 class. About half are ATL right now as true freshmen. With normal to low attrition, that is enough to give us solid play in 2022.
2020 recruiting will give us about the same number, including Allen. This will provide plenty of quality depth in 2022 plus really solid base in 2023.
Both classes will give us quality puppy play in 2020 and 2021, like 2019 is giving us now.
The key is controlling attrition. That is what is killing us this year. The two factors on that are program stability and managing athletes doing GT coursework. I think this staff is outstanding at understanding what GT is all about. Collins grew up here and coached here two different stints. Choice, Dixon, Burton, Coleman, and Key went here. I think this staff does an unbelievable job of setting expectations on the front end and challenging student-athletes on a daily basis. Recruiting closer to home has the benefit of reducing homesickness, which typically gets a kid or two each year. Not much you can do about reducing injuries other than keeping the kids in shape and rotating them through, which is all we can do and we are doing it. You can make fun of efforts to keep the kids excited and happy, but if doing so keeps them in school here and telling their friends to come here, that will pay off in lower attrition and deeper and more experienced defenses.
So I am excited about seeing translation of principles into performance. Like all of you, I wish it were faster, but IIWII.
I think I will wait until that book comes out on audio.