POLL: What is the probability we beat Georgia State in 2024

What is the probability we beat Georgia State in 2024

  • Total voters
    115
  • Poll closed .
coit

coit

Bullseye
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
90,632
Sat, August 31 vs Georgia State - 8:00 PM ET

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Last game: Florida State
Next game: Syracuse
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ESPN Pre-Season FPI Rank: 91
FPI Differential: +7.6
Win Probability: 88%


First home game is under the lights at Bobby Dodd! This will be the first meeting between the two most powerful football programs within city limits. The Panthers will be breaking in a new head coach.

See the 2024 Pre-Season Probability Poll Discussion for voting guidelines and contest rules.
 
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I hope we aren't too jet lagged, beat up, and over-confident from the win over FSU. This will be Georgia State's opener, and a trap game for us.
 
This one is hard to predict. This game has trap game written all over it between it being their super bowl and between the Dublin and Syracuse trips for us. How will jet lag affect us in this one? Going with a 0.7 that the good guys win.
 
HurricaneJacket said:
This one is hard to predict. This game has trap game written all over it between it being their super bowl and between the Dublin and Syracuse trips for us. How will jet lag affect us in this one? Going with a 0.7 that the good guys win.
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I agree, this could easily be a trap game. I was thinking the same as far as the guys having their legs back under them after the trip.
 
JJacket said:
No 1.0 or 0.0

Stupid ööööing pole makes an appearance by someone who apparently doesn't understand how percentages and probabilities work.
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JJacket said:
No 1.0 or 0.0

Stupid ööööing pole makes an appearance by someone who apparently doesn't understand how percentages and probabilities work.
Click to expand...

Stupid ööööing question makes a reappearance from someone who asks the same ööööing question at least once per year and knows the answer but has thin skin and whines a lot.
 
I understand the idea is that a probability of 1.0 is when something is certain to happen, and a probability of 0.0 is when something can't happen. Since no football game outcome is certain, neither of those probabilities is realistic.

That fact doesn't need to be represented by omitting the 1.0 and 0.0 choices, though. Everyone knows that there is no perfectly certain outcome in this context, so 1.0 and 0.0 would represent rounded probabilities. Or, if the impossibility of those probabilities really needed to be indicated, they could simply be written as "~1.0" and "~0.0".

Omitting 1.0 and 0.0 is problematic because some people may round their mental probabilities but others may truncate to one decimal place. For example, if someone thought Tech has a 75% chance of winning, they might round to 0.8, because that's natural to do. However, someone else might astutely recognize that truncation is called for because you can't round 95% to 1.0, and therefore truncate 75% to 0.7. So, people may be choosing different probabilities even though they have the same one in mind.

:hiding:
 
justafan said:
I understand the idea is that a probability of 1.0 is when something is certain to happen, and a probability of 0.0 is when something can't happen. Since no football game outcome is certain, neither of those probabilities is realistic.

That fact doesn't need to be represented by omitting the 1.0 and 0.0 choices, though. Everyone knows that there is no perfectly certain outcome in this context, so 1.0 and 0.0 would represent rounded probabilities. Or, if the impossibility of those probabilities really needed to be indicated, they could simply be written as "~1.0" and "~0.0".

Omitting 1.0 and 0.0 is problematic because some people may round their mental probabilities but others may truncate to one decimal place. For example, if someone thought Tech has a 75% chance of winning, they might round to 0.8, because that's natural to do. However, someone else might astutely recognize that truncation is called for because you can't round 95% to 1.0, and therefore truncate 75% to 0.7. So, people may be choosing different probabilities even though they have the same one in mind.

:hiding:
Click to expand...
or at least just put 0.99 and/or 0.01
 
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