Predictions for the 2022 season - stats

Geoff Collins, Georgia Tech football turn to new-look coaching staff to change program
By Jeff Schultz May 15, 2022

Editor’s note: This is part of a series previewing Power 5 and top Group of 5 teams for the 2022 college football season.

ATLANTA — The roots of David Turner’s coaching career don’t grow deep. They grow sideways. They spread across 17 stops, 14 programs (three twice) and 11 states, through almost every atmospheric layer of college football, from Division II to FCS to Group of 5 and Power 5, not always in logical order.

He makes sure to keep a shirt or a pair of trunks from every stop, but he can’t tell you what box they’re in or where the boxes are.

“My wife deserves combat pay and workman’s comp,” the well-traveled defensive line coach said. “There’s probably been one or two moves in looking back that I wouldn’t have done. And some weren’t by design — we were asked to leave. But every move has been a blessing.”

It’s appropriate that Turner would land this season at Georgia Tech, which isn’t the picture of stability. Two of the dozen players who entered the transfer portal referenced “uncertainty in the program” in their social media exit posts. Five assistant coaches from last year’s staff left for other jobs, including celebrated alums Tashard Choice (running backs, Texas) and Marco Coleman (defensive line, Michigan State). Three others were fired. Turner, named assistant head coach/defensive run game coordinator, is one of eight new assistants.

New faces. New schemes. A relative must-win season in head coach Geoff Collins’ fourth year. Not ideal.

“We all know it’s a bottom-line business,” Turner said. “But I don’t approach any job differently. I’m going to do what’s best for them and coach them up the best I can and not worry about it. I don’t worry about stuff I have no control over, and I can’t control perception.”

Fact: Collins is 9-25 after three straight three-win seasons. It’s the worst record of any Georgia Tech head coach since 1902 (John McKee, 0-6-2). It’s the worst record among ACC teams during his tenure — worse than Duke (10-23) and Syracuse (11-24), worse than Louisville (18-19) and Boston College (18-18), and far behind Wake Forest (23-13), a program Tech never imagined it would be looking so far up to.

Perception: Collins is in trouble. Progress was expected in his third year, but the Jackets went 3-9 and closed the season with six losses in a row, the final two by a combined score of 100-0. Collins initially moved the program forward in marketing and recruiting, but there has been no clear progress on the field. Some wanted him fired, which might have happened at many programs.

But Georgia Tech’s athletics department is not flush with cash, as an examination by The Athletic illustrated in August. It generates less revenue in football and overall athletics than every other ACC program, except Wake Forest. Collins is only three years into a seven-year contract, and his $12 million buyout was just too much for athletic director Todd Stansbury (and boosters) to swallow. Stansbury publicly supported Collins in the days before Tech’s 2021 season finale against Georgia, touching on the usual rebuilding and transitioning-from-the-triple-option sound bites. But Stansbury acknowledged on Collins’ weekly radio show that “it’s definitely a disappointing year, and one that is quite frankly not acceptable.”

Stansbury and Georgia Tech fans do not have unrealistic expectations, given the university’s academic and economic obstacles. But they see Wake Forest winning, and the last three Tech head coaches (Paul Johnson, Chan Gailey, George O’Leary) all won. Johnson’s accomplishments, largely unappreciated, now serve as a striking contrast to those of Collins: an ACC title, three top-25 finishes, the program’s third top-10 finish in 48 years and nine bowls in 11 years.

Offense
It’s not good when a bad season ends and a team immediately loses its best player (running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who will have a chance to win a national title at Alabama) and arguably its best assistant coach/offensive recruiter (Choice). It’s even worse when the incumbent starting quarterback, Jeff Sims, has struggled in his first two seasons (25 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, 57 percent passing) and loses Gibbs and now must play for an entirely new offensive staff in a fast-paced scheme that puts even more pressure on him.

Sims would seem to be a good fit athletically for Chip Long’s high-tempo, no-huddle offense. Sims can run, and he has a good arm. The difficult part is trying to learn and adjust to the offense so quickly because the scheme is dependent on fast and accurate decision-making by the quarterback.

“A lot of (our success) is going to be based on what Jeff can do and the personnel we have,” said Long, who coached at Tulane last season after previously coordinating offenses at Arizona State, Memphis, Notre Dame and Tennessee. “You want to give him enough to go into the first game but not so much that you’re going to overwhelm the guys. There’s a fine line there.”

Many high schools now run fast-tempo offenses, so the concept won’t be completely foreign to a lot of players. They just never ran it to this degree and against FBS competition. The keys for Sims, Long said, are the same in many offenses: make quick decisions, take care of the ball and “trust your feet.” Long has studied Sims’ past games and watched him in the spring.

“Sometimes he can lock on to a guy a little too long, but (improvement) will come with reps and more time in the summer,” he said. “It’s about confidence. It’s my job to get him more confidence.”

Long is a hard-driving coach. His personality reportedly caused tension among other assistants and players, according to a report by The Athletic’s Matt Fortuna and Pete Sampson. After being hired at Georgia Tech, he said, “They’re going to have to live up to a different standard and effort and competition than they have in the past.”

He had similar comments in the spring: “They’re working hard, but they don’t give out awards for working hard. It’s the execution and the physicality I want to see daily.”

With uncertainty at running back and wide receiver and the lack of a dominant offensive line, an enormous amount of responsibility is on Sims. But he won’t be lacking in tutors. Georgia Tech has five new offensive assistants. Long, quarterbacks coach Chris Weinke and well-traveled offensive coordinator Jim Chaney — who maintained his home in Athens from his years with Georgia and has been hired as “special assistant to the head coach” — all will be working with Sims.

Long worked as an analyst for Chaney at Tennessee. “We kind of switched responsibilities,” Long said. “When I got the job, he asked if we had a spot for him, and I told him I would do anything to find a spot.”

Too many cooks? Weinke doesn’t think so.

“The unique part of this offensive staff is we’ve been able to spend a lot of time together, and because we’ve been in different places, it allows the creativity to come out,” he said.

Returnees Malachi Carter (who tied for the team lead with 37 receptions in 2021) and Nate McCollum project as the top playmakers among the wide receivers. The running back situation appears wide open, with Dontae Smith the only notable returnee after the losses of Gibbs and Jamious Griffin to the portal and Jordan Mason to the pros.

Smith said “something about the flow” makes him believe the scheme will be an improvement from 2021, which led to Dave Patenaude’s exit.

“It’s day and night from what we were doing to what we’re doing now,” Smith said. “I think it’s something that was needed, and it will change the dynamic of our offense.”

But how long will that take? Weinke acknowledged the pressure to succeed quickly with a new scheme is “a challenge. But it’s a mindset. You can look at it and say, ‘Doom and gloom,’ or you can say, ‘What a great opportunity to take a group of young men and go accomplish some great things,’ quite honestly when nobody is expecting it.”

Key stat to know: Zero. The Jackets’ point total in their final two games of the 2021 season when they were outscored 100-0 by Notre Dame and Georgia. The Jackets scored 17 or fewer points four times. For as much as some fans wanted a change from the option, the Jackets have taken a significant step back the past three seasons, ranking 124th, 95th and 95th nationally in scoring. They averaged only 23.8 points per game in 2021.
 
Defense
Collins is leaving the offense to Long and will spend more of his time in the defensive meeting rooms. Andrew Thacker, who survived the staff purge and remains the defensive coordinator, put it this way: “If we win and have success, I’ll be calling the plays. If not, it’ll be someone else.”

Thacker gets credit for honesty. He understands Georgia Tech doesn’t stack up with major programs in elite defensive talent. (The Jackets’ lone NFL draft pick was safety Tariq Carpenter in the seventh round.)

“If we don’t have 15 draft picks, how do we (make up) the margin?” Thacker said. The answer: coaching, scheme, player discipline.

Turner suggested there will be some tweaks to the scheme. But this is about the basics: communication, coverage, tackling.

“Defense is about getting off the block and making the tackle,” Turner said. “It doesn’t matter if you play a 3-4 or 4-3. Everybody is basically doing the same thing.”

The Jackets actually use a 4-2-5 base, and they have the “2” covered with versatile linebackers Charlie Thomas and Ayinde “Ace” Eley. But when a team ranks 121st against the pass and 117th in total defense, it’s fair to say there are problems everywhere. It goes beyond physical talent. Defenses can limit the damage simply by being in the right place in coverages and adjusting to motions, which Tech hasn’t done.

Some of that is on coaching. Thacker spent time with the coaching staffs at South Carolina and Baylor — which run similar defenses and are not on Tech’s schedule — for ideas.

“Three wins in Year 3 is not the standard,” he said. “The product is not reflective of where any of us want to be. How are we failing the kids? How can we teach better? How do we not beat ourselves? Some of those have been communication busts or scheme busts. When the offense changes the picture, they shift or they motion. Why are we not adjusting to those? We don’t beat ourselves when a receiver makes a freak catch, (Randy) ‘Mosses’ someone or just runs past someone. We can live with those moments. But when the picture moves and we don’t communicate simple adjustments, we allow explosives and we don’t give ourselves a chance. We’re the culprit of that — the coaches.”

Help up front could come from linemen Keion White, now fully recovered from a broken ankle he suffered in a pickup basketball game before he transferred to Tech last year, and T.K. Chimedza, who might have been slowed last year by a torn Achilles in 2020. Chimedza sensed a more “serious” tone among players in the spring: “People just care more now. The past three years haven’t been the highlight of Georgia Tech football. It’s just the culmination of guys getting tired of it.”

The secondary was a mess in 2021. The Jackets were second-to-last in the nation with three interceptions, and two of those were by a linebacker (Charlie Thomas). They ranked 130th (last) in pass defense efficiency. So here’s goal No. 1 for 2022: Don’t finish behind New Mexico State, Massachusetts, Kansas, Charlotte, Akron, Florida International and Duke.

The team lost its two best defensive backs — Carpenter and Juanyeh Thomas — to the pros. Zamari Walton, Myles Sims and Derrik Allen are projected to lead the back end. Thacker is publicly optimistic. He has no choice.

“The Georgias and Alabamas that are just oozing with talent at another level, I see how much margin for error they have because they can overcompensate with elite D-line play,” Thacker said. “But I think we have more talent and depth now, so we have a greater margin for error than in the past.”

Key stat to know: There are so many to choose from. But the stat that best illustrates the communication issues referenced by Thacker is third-down defense. Tech allowed opponents to convert 45.2 percent (71-of-157) of the time in 2021, which ranked 117th in the nation and ahead of only Duke (48 percent) in the ACC. A breakdown in coverage, often in combination with a bad pass rush, led to opponents’ conversions and eventually a tired defense.

Special teams
With kicker Brent Cimaglia gone, the job will be up for grabs between Jude Kelley and Aidan Birr, who combined to attempt one field goal last season. But coverage teams are the biggest areas of concern. Returning punter David Shanahan ranked 12th in the ACC with a 41.5-yard average and had a conference-high nine touchbacks. Ideally, a punter is pinning an opponent inside the 20-yard line more often, but Tech ranked 122nd nationally in net punting and 104th in punt return coverage.

Opposing scouting report
In his two seasons with the Yellow Jackets, Gibbs rushed for 1,206 yards and eight touchdowns and had 768 receiving yards and five touchdowns. He also averaged 25.6 yards on kickoff returns, including one touchdown.

“They lost their best player, Gibbs, who was their best player by a mile. He’s so good,” an ACC head coach said. “He was a real problem to try and defend. He was so explosive. Jordan Mason, their other running back, probably their next best guy, also is gone. How do you build a program when that one great asset you’ve got (Gibbs) walks out the door and goes to Alabama?

“It’s just been such a struggle there. The thing that is hard to say from the outside looking in is: I know it’s hard to build a program now when you’ve had COVID being stuck in the middle. I’m not sure what role that’s really played, but they just have not been able to get any traction. They’ve been rebuilding up front for a while. I think they knew it was going to be a big rebuild. Well, are you gonna hang in there and understand what life after triple-option is really like?”

Collins’ teams went 15-10 in two seasons at Temple before he took over at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have gone 3-9, 3-7 and 3-9 in Collins’ three seasons.

“There’s always been a lot of hype with Geoff. He sold himself as such a recruiter. It’s been interesting to watch,” the ACC head coach said. “Last year, they went to sort of that Iowa State three-down, three-safety (defensive) look. Now, Geoff is gonna take over the defense. He hired Chip Long on offense. I think he’s a good coach. Geoff’s made his moves. They’ve struggled to move the needle. They have not had a great identity. There’s nothing you can say they’ve been very good at. Sims has ability, but he’s so inconsistent. Can he be a top-half-of-the-ACC quarterback? I’m not sure I’d say that.”
 
How the Yellow Jackets recruited from 2019 to 2022
When recruiting is going well, there’s fuel for supporters to support a coach in difficult times. But things are trending in the wrong direction. Georgia Tech’s Composite ranking of the past four recruiting classes is 44th nationally and sixth among ACC programs, according to 247Sports. Collins’ second recruiting class in 2020 ranked 27th nationally (fifth in the ACC), but the two classes since have ranked 48th (2021) and 53rd (2022). Collins and his staff wisely focused heavily on defense and the trenches in his first few classes, including 15 defensive linemen from 2019 to 2021.

But it hasn’t paid off. Georgia Tech had four four-star prospects in its highest-rated class of 2020, but Gibbs transferred to Alabama after last season, and edge rusher Jared Ivey is headed to Ole Miss. But here’s the bottom line from last season: The Jackets’ defense ranked 13th out of 14 in the ACC with 33.5 points allowed (ahead of only Duke) and 12th in points for at 24.0 (ahead of Virginia Tech and Duke). Duke and Virginia Tech have new coaches in 2022.

In the transfer portal
Georgia Tech has not lost an extraordinary number of players. Having 13 transfers since November is about average. It’s more about who left — specifically Gibbs. “He was the only player opposing coaches ever worried about,” one source told The Athletic. Gibbs wasn’t unhappy with his playing time, like so many other transfers, and he wasn’t a grad transfer seeking to begin work on his masters. He just wanted to win and put himself in a better position for the NFL Draft. Ivey, fellow edge rusher Jordan Domineck (Arkansas) and safety Wesley Walker (Tennessee) left for SEC programs. Griffin, who might’ve stepped in for Gibbs, is headed to Oregon State.

Incoming running back Dylan McDuffie, a transfer from Buffalo, rushed for 1,049 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. Tech is hoping for offensive line help, via the portal, from tackles Pierce Quick (Alabama) and Paul Tchio (Clemson) and also is bringing in two safeties: Khari Gee from Notre Dame and Ahmari Harvey from Auburn. It’s probably fair to suggest that most of the incomings and outgoings balance out with one exception: Gibbs.

Impact of coaching changes
Only Collins and three assistants are back. The fact that five of the eight coaches exiting simply left for perceived better jobs, notably Choice and Coleman and general manager/recruiting Patrick Suddes (North Carolina), is a bad sign. Other than offensive line coach/assistant head coach Brent Key, the entire offensive staff is new. It will be interesting to see how Key, Long, Weinke and Chaney blend, especially if the offense struggles.

The primary objective is to help with the development of Sims, who opted not to transfer like Gibbs after rumors to the contrary. If Sims and the offense show significant improvement, it will go a long way toward making the program more attractive for recruits and transfers. On defense, Thacker will continue to call the plays, with input from Collins. With eight new assistants, it’s impossible to predict what direction this goes.

Final assessment
It’s not clear what Stansbury would consider acceptable progress, but it’s probably safe to assume Georgia Tech needs to make it to a bowl game. If the Jackets lose to the four expected ranked opponents on their schedule (Clemson, Ole Miss, Pittsburgh and Georgia, chronologically), they would have to win six of the other eight games. At least one road upset must be included. Tech needs significant progress on both sides of the ball but particularly on offense, sustaining drives to take pressure off the defense. Sims must adapt quickly to Long’s scheme, and the Jackets will need to establish a running game without Gibbs.


 
Back
Top