Predictor Week 3

L

LegendaryGT

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Joined
Oct 18, 2009
Messages
62,557
Predictor said:
GT vs ND(+2.5)
Week 3 of 2015

GT - Offense
Yardage: 475 ypg
Performance: 41 (higher is better)
Scoring: 43
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 32 (higher is better)
GT - Defense
Yardage: 303 ypg allowed
Performance: 34 (higher is better)
Scoring: 15
Efficiency: 20 (higher is better)
Performance: 51 (higher is better)

ND - Offense
Yardage: 466 ypg
Performance: 26 (higher is better)
Scoring: 32
Efficiency: 14 (lower is better)
Performance: 3 (higher is better)
ND - Defense
Yardage: 430 ypg allowed
Performance: -9 (higher is better)
Scoring: 32
Efficiency: 13 (higher is better)
Performance: 3 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: GT 59 (624 yards), ND 15 (347 yards)
GT best case: GT 72 (718 yards), ND 9 (279 yards)
ND best case: GT 45 (519 yards), ND 21 (412 yards)

GT talent: 5051
ND talent: 11024
GT talent of schedule: 7071
ND talent of schedule: 6991

Suggested talent adjustment: 29% towards ND best case
Final: GT 55 (593 yards), ND 17 (367 yards)
Click to expand...

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TIA - I would consider tracking Vegas lines and seeing how often your predictor out-predicts the gamblers. That would be a cool read. Also, I want you to make me money.
 
Flywheel said:
TIA - I would consider tracking Vegas lines and seeing how often your predictor out-predicts the gamblers. That would be a cool read. Also, I want you to make me money.
Click to expand...

Stingtalk get rich quick scheme? Sign me up!

But for real that would be interesting to see a comparison.
 
Gloom, despair, and agony on me
Deep, dark depression, excessive misery
If it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all
Gloom, despair, and agony on me. - Brian Van Gorder
 
You know, if the Gold Standard was still in full effect we'd be air-dropping fliers into South Bend warning non-Irish fans to evacuate. We'd be sending hype trains to rescue innocent fans of Indiana, Indiana State and Ball State - Purdue simply isn't worth the effort, even under the Gold Standard.

Warn them that the football equivalent of Little Boy and Fat Man are coming in the form of Snoddy and Gotsis. Warn them that the Roof is about to come down on their golden domes with a force that makes megatons look like plancks. Warn them that after this Saturday, the words "doubt" and "Thomas" will never be spoken in the same sentence again.

But the Gold Standard is dead and with it, mercy.
 
Predictor Poll said:
#1: ('CLEM', [199, 0, 0, 11406])
#2: ('ALA', [196, 3, 0, 18318])
#3: ('OSU', [194, 5, 0, 16649])
#4: ('GT', [194, 5, 0, 12624])
#5: ('USC', [193, 6, 0, 12609])
#6: ('MISS', [192, 7, 0, 13874])
#7: ('FLA', [192, 7, 0, 11541])
#8: ('ARK', [192, 7, 0, 7630])
#9: ('UGA', [191, 8, 0, 13128])
#10: ('FSU', [189, 10, 0, 14389])
#11: ('TCU', [188, 11, 0, 41284])
#12: ('MSU', [188, 11, 0, 16718])
#13: ('ORE', [187, 12, 0, 19114])
#14: ('MIA', [186, 13, 0, 11128])
#15: ('MSST', [185, 14, 0, 8119])
#16: ('UCLA', [183, 16, 0, 8327])
#17: ('LSU', [182, 17, 0, 10178])
#18: ('BAY', [181, 18, 0, 18581])
#19: ('BC', [179, 20, 0, 10204])
#20: ('STAN', [179, 20, 0, 5632])
#21: ('OKLA', [178, 21, 0, 6798])
#22: ('NCST', [175, 24, 0, 13390])
#23: ('BYU', [175, 24, 0, 8197])
#24: ('WIS', [173, 26, 0, 9579])
#25: ('CSU', [173, 26, 0, 8408])
Click to expand...

#Rank: ('Team', [Wins, Losses, Ties, MoV])

I had the predictor simulate a 200 team round robin to determine a top 25.
 
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