Predictor Week 3

why do you have ties in there?

Who are the 5 teams we "lost" to in the round-robin?
 
carmex said:
why do you have ties in there?

Who are the 5 teams we "lost" to in the round-robin?
Click to expand...

It does predict ties from time to time.

As for who we lost to, this poll is now completely invalid. I looked in the data set and saw Austin Peay, Rhonde Island, and two other FCS schools, along with Clemson obviously who had zero simulated losses. After a little troubleshooting, it looks like the predictor had assigned us an offensive advantage factor of more than 100% in each of those games against FCS schools.

Such a thing is not compatible with my algorithms (because it doesn't occur in FBS vs FBS games), which resulted in a game in which we scored -676 points against Austin Peay, like we used some Madden cheat codes a little too abusively and our game crashed.

So in four of those losses, the predictor just got a little confused about the ragnarok times Cumberland style ass kicking we laid on our opponents and got turned around. I'll have to filter out FCS teams from the round robin and rerun it.
 
Predictor Poll said:
#1: ('CLEM', [126, 0, 0, 3627])
#2: ('GT', [125, 1, 0, 4758])
#3: ('OSU', [124, 2, 0, 5536])
#4: ('ALA', [123, 3, 0, 4121])
#5: ('MISS', [120, 6, 0, 3945])
#6: ('USC', [120, 6, 0, 3285])
#7: ('FLA', [120, 6, 0, 3123])
#8: ('TCU', [119, 7, 0, 3528])
#9: ('ARK', [119, 7, 0, 2199])
#10: ('UGA', [118, 8, 0, 3308])
#11: ('FSU', [116, 10, 0, 3335])
#12: ('ORE', [115, 11, 0, 3992])
#13: ('MSU', [115, 11, 0, 3300])
#14: ('MIA', [113, 13, 0, 2829])
#15: ('MSST', [112, 14, 0, 2255])
#16: ('BC', [110, 16, 0, 2452])
#17: ('UCLA', [110, 16, 0, 2041])
#18: ('LSU', [109, 17, 0, 1413])
#19: ('BAY', [108, 18, 0, 3744])
#20: ('LT', [106, 20, 0, 3185])
#21: ('STAN', [106, 20, 0, 1447])
#22: ('NCST', [105, 21, 0, 2308])
#23: ('OKLA', [105, 21, 0, 1787])
#24: ('BYU', [103, 23, 0, 1983])
#25: ('CSU', [101, 25, 0, 2242])
Click to expand...

This one is more than 100% more valid.

Our lone loss is to Clemson who beats us 16 to 11.
 
THAT'S more like it. predictor öööö mind mostly right.
 
Putting these here because I am receiving requests for them. Enjoy, but please don't bet on them!

Predictor said:
CLEM vs LOU(+6)
Week 3 of 2014

CLEM - Offense
Yardage: 394 ypg
Performance: 11 (higher is better)
Scoring: 32
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 21 (higher is better)
CLEM - Defense
Yardage: 249 ypg allowed
Performance: 79 (higher is better)
Scoring: 14
Efficiency: 17 (higher is better)
Performance: 23 (higher is better)

LOU - Offense
Yardage: 436 ypg
Performance: 16 (higher is better)
Scoring: 33
Efficiency: 13 (lower is better)
Performance: 7 (higher is better)
LOU - Defense
Yardage: 371 ypg allowed
Performance: 15 (higher is better)
Scoring: 32
Efficiency: 11 (higher is better)
Performance: -14 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: CLEM 34 (328 yards), LOU 9 (146 yards)
CLEM best case: CLEM 44 (387 yards), LOU 3 (63 yards)
LOU best case: CLEM 23 (266 yards), LOU 18 (292 yards)

CLEM talent: 10803
LOU talent: 6316
CLEM talent of schedule: 3343
LOU talent of schedule: 8279

Suggested talent adjustment: 2% towards LOU best case
Final: CLEM 34 (327 yards), LOU 9 (149 yards)
Click to expand...

It doesn't seem to like Clemson's offense at all.

Predictor said:
FSU vs BC(+8.5)
Week 3 of 2014

FSU - Offense
Yardage: 439 ypg
Performance: 35 (higher is better)
Scoring: 35
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 21 (higher is better)
FSU - Defense
Yardage: 353 ypg allowed
Performance: 17 (higher is better)
Scoring: 22
Efficiency: 15 (higher is better)
Performance: 33 (higher is better)

BC - Offense
Yardage: 337 ypg
Performance: -5 (higher is better)
Scoring: 32
Efficiency: 10 (lower is better)
Performance: 29 (higher is better)
BC - Defense
Yardage: 235 ypg allowed
Performance: 64 (higher is better)
Scoring: 16
Efficiency: 14 (higher is better)
Performance: 2 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: FSU 19 (228 yards), BC 23 (283 yards)
FSU best case: FSU 28 (317 yards), BC 18 (256 yards)
BC best case: FSU 11 (135 yards), BC 32 (332 yards)

FSU talent: 12366
BC talent: 4933
FSU talent of schedule: 6335
BC talent of schedule: 5097

Suggested talent adjustment: 43% towards FSU best case
Final: FSU 23 (266 yards), BC 21 (271 yards)
Click to expand...

BC held Howard to 11 total yards last week. For the game. The predictor is in overreaction mode, IMO.

Predictor said:
ILL vs UNC(-9.5)
Week 3 of 2014

ILL - Offense
Yardage: 321 ypg
Performance: 3 (higher is better)
Scoring: 28
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 22 (higher is better)
ILL - Defense
Yardage: 363 ypg allowed
Performance: 8 (higher is better)
Scoring: 20
Efficiency: 17 (higher is better)
Performance: 36 (higher is better)

UNC - Offense
Yardage: 412 ypg
Performance: 32 (higher is better)
Scoring: 29
Efficiency: 13 (lower is better)
Performance: 13 (higher is better)
UNC - Defense
Yardage: 410 ypg allowed
Performance: 3 (higher is better)
Scoring: 28
Efficiency: 14 (higher is better)
Performance: 15 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: ILL 27 (368 yards), UNC 25 (454 yards)
ILL best case: ILL 37 (430 yards), UNC 19 (374 yards)
UNC best case: ILL 19 (307 yards), UNC 32 (509 yards)

ILL talent: 4972
UNC talent: 7429
ILL talent of schedule: 5423
UNC talent of schedule: 3920

Suggested talent adjustment: 4% towards UNC best case
Final: ILL 27 (365 yards), UNC 25 (457 yards)
Click to expand...

Based on this efficiency pick, it thinks UNC is a team that always throws 3 INTs in the end zone or something. This is going to be a bad week for the machine, I can feel it.

Predictor said:
NW vs DUKE(-3.5)
Week 3 of 2014

NW - Offense
Yardage: 374 ypg
Performance: 9 (higher is better)
Scoring: 22
Efficiency: 16 (lower is better)
Performance: -20 (higher is better)
NW - Defense
Yardage: 325 ypg allowed
Performance: 26 (higher is better)
Scoring: 18
Efficiency: 17 (higher is better)
Performance: 11 (higher is better)

DUKE - Offense
Yardage: 418 ypg
Performance: 15 (higher is better)
Scoring: 32
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 10 (higher is better)
DUKE - Defense
Yardage: 340 ypg allowed
Performance: 4 (higher is better)
Scoring: 18
Efficiency: 18 (higher is better)
Performance: 16 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: NW 17 (366 yards), DUKE 22 (336 yards)
NW best case: NW 19 (385 yards), DUKE 21 (289 yards)
DUKE best case: NW 15 (351 yards), DUKE 24 (377 yards)

NW talent: 4378
DUKE talent: 4312
NW talent of schedule: 6536
DUKE talent of schedule: 4557

Suggested talent adjustment: 10% towards NW best case
Final: NW 18 (368 yards), DUKE 22 (331 yards)
Click to expand...

Teams that played Tulane have dumb stats.

Predictor said:
ORE vs GAST(+45.5)
Week 3 of 2014

ORE - Offense
Yardage: 546 ypg
Performance: 43 (higher is better)
Scoring: 46
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 29 (higher is better)
ORE - Defense
Yardage: 376 ypg allowed
Performance: 7 (higher is better)
Scoring: 22
Efficiency: 16 (higher is better)
Performance: 16 (higher is better)

GAST - Offense
Yardage: 331 ypg
Performance: -14 (higher is better)
Scoring: 17
Efficiency: 18 (lower is better)
Performance: -46 (higher is better)
GAST - Defense
Yardage: 482 ypg allowed
Performance: -12 (higher is better)
Scoring: 37
Efficiency: 12 (higher is better)
Performance: -6 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: ORE 74 (726 yards), GAST 14 (300 yards)
ORE best case: ORE 89 (852 yards), GAST 13 (267 yards)
GAST best case: ORE 55 (611 yards), GAST 15 (326 yards)

ORE talent: 9293
GAST talent: 600
ORE talent of schedule: 5386
GAST talent of schedule: 2976

Suggested talent adjustment: 55% towards ORE best case
Final: ORE 82 (796 yards), GAST 13 (281 yards)
Click to expand...

I believe it.

Predictor said:
UGA vs SCAR(+16.5)
Week 3 of 2014

UGA - Offense
Yardage: 462 ypg
Performance: 26 (higher is better)
Scoring: 38
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 20 (higher is better)
UGA - Defense
Yardage: 349 ypg allowed
Performance: 15 (higher is better)
Scoring: 18
Efficiency: 19 (higher is better)
Performance: 48 (higher is better)

SCAR - Offense
Yardage: 462 ypg
Performance: 40 (higher is better)
Scoring: 23
Efficiency: 20 (lower is better)
Performance: -30 (higher is better)
SCAR - Defense
Yardage: 444 ypg allowed
Performance: -14 (higher is better)
Scoring: 21
Efficiency: 20 (higher is better)
Performance: 74 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: UGA 25 (591 yards), SCAR 14 (479 yards)
UGA best case: UGA 33 (651 yards), SCAR 12 (394 yards)
SCAR best case: UGA 20 (529 yards), SCAR 19 (595 yards)

UGA talent: 11371
SCAR talent: 9211
UGA talent of schedule: 5972
SCAR talent of schedule: 8597

Suggested talent adjustment: 2% towards SCAR best case
Final: UGA 25 (590 yards), SCAR 14 (482 yards)
Click to expand...

I agree, robot, 16.5 sounds a little extreme.

Predictor said:
AUB vs LSU(-6.5)
Week 3 of 2014

AUB - Offense
Yardage: 436 ypg
Performance: 25 (higher is better)
Scoring: 29
Efficiency: 14 (lower is better)
Performance: 13 (higher is better)
AUB - Defense
Yardage: 452 ypg allowed
Performance: 0 (higher is better)
Scoring: 30
Efficiency: 14 (higher is better)
Performance: 20 (higher is better)

LSU - Offense
Yardage: 280 ypg
Performance: -25 (higher is better)
Scoring: 13
Efficiency: 20 (lower is better)
Performance: -3 (higher is better)
LSU - Defense
Yardage: 289 ypg allowed
Performance: 51 (higher is better)
Scoring: 15
Efficiency: 18 (higher is better)
Performance: 37 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: AUB 15 (273 yards), LSU 15 (289 yards)
AUB best case: AUB 23 (362 yards), LSU 8 (207 yards)
LSU best case: AUB 9 (199 yards), LSU 23 (338 yards)

AUB talent: 11480
LSU talent: 11816
AUB talent of schedule: 7343
LSU talent of schedule: 9800

Suggested talent adjustment: 13% towards LSU best case
Final: AUB 14 (262 yards), LSU 16 (296 yards)
Click to expand...

I hope this game looks exactly like this. The SEC would look awful.
 
Predictor said:
ALA vs MISS(+6.5)
Week 3 of 2014

ALA - Offense
Yardage: 469 ypg
Performance: 36 (higher is better)
Scoring: 36
Efficiency: 13 (lower is better)
Performance: 22 (higher is better)
ALA - Defense
Yardage: 342 ypg allowed
Performance: 21 (higher is better)
Scoring: 18
Efficiency: 18 (higher is better)
Performance: 31 (higher is better)

MISS - Offense
Yardage: 549 ypg
Performance: 45 (higher is better)
Scoring: 43
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 23 (higher is better)
MISS - Defense
Yardage: 326 ypg allowed
Performance: 22 (higher is better)
Scoring: 17
Efficiency: 18 (higher is better)
Performance: 17 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: ALA 26 (429 yards), MISS 29 (510 yards)
ALA best case: ALA 30 (535 yards), MISS 21 (425 yards)
MISS best case: ALA 21 (362 yards), MISS 34 (683 yards)

ALA talent: 14716
MISS talent: 8889
ALA talent of schedule: 6436
MISS talent of schedule: 4809

Suggested talent adjustment: 37% towards ALA best case
Final: ALA 28 (469 yards), MISS 26 (478 yards)
Click to expand...

I really expected this to resemble our line, given that Ole Miss is scoring even more than we are this season. I don't remember programming this thing with Alabama bias in it, but it seems to know who they is.

Predictor said:
VT vs PUR(+6)
Week 3 of 2014

VT - Offense
Yardage: 371 ypg
Performance: 10 (higher is better)
Scoring: 23
Efficiency: 16 (lower is better)
Performance: -6 (higher is better)
VT - Defense
Yardage: 332 ypg allowed
Performance: 20 (higher is better)
Scoring: 19
Efficiency: 17 (higher is better)
Performance: 42 (higher is better)

PUR - Offense
Yardage: 369 ypg
Performance: -3 (higher is better)
Scoring: 21
Efficiency: 17 (lower is better)
Performance: -19 (higher is better)
PUR - Defense
Yardage: 385 ypg allowed
Performance: 2 (higher is better)
Scoring: 30
Efficiency: 12 (higher is better)
Performance: -12 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: VT 32 (403 yards), PUR 12 (278 yards)
VT best case: VT 40 (427 yards), PUR 9 (250 yards)
PUR best case: VT 26 (363 yards), PUR 15 (317 yards)

VT talent: 7716
PUR talent: 4559
VT talent of schedule: 5484
PUR talent of schedule: 4594

Suggested talent adjustment: 20% towards VT best case
Final: VT 33 (408 yards), PUR 11 (272 yards)
Click to expand...

Purdue is bad mmkay.

Predictor said:
NEB vs MIA(-3.5)
Week 3 of 2014

NEB - Offense
Yardage: 358 ypg
Performance: 2 (higher is better)
Scoring: 28
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 12 (higher is better)
NEB - Defense
Yardage: 417 ypg allowed
Performance: -5 (higher is better)
Scoring: 27
Efficiency: 15 (higher is better)
Performance: 9 (higher is better)

MIA - Offense
Yardage: 450 ypg
Performance: 20 (higher is better)
Scoring: 37
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 20 (higher is better)
MIA - Defense
Yardage: 312 ypg allowed
Performance: 41 (higher is better)
Scoring: 21
Efficiency: 14 (higher is better)
Performance: 12 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: NEB 16 (233 yards), MIA 38 (520 yards)
NEB best case: NEB 24 (320 yards), MIA 34 (478 yards)
MIA best case: NEB 12 (189 yards), MIA 40 (573 yards)

NEB talent: 8056
MIA talent: 8588
NEB talent of schedule: 4394
MIA talent of schedule: 5587

Suggested talent adjustment: 8% towards MIA best case
Final: NEB 16 (229 yards), MIA 38 (525 yards)
Click to expand...

It's smoking crack.

Predictor said:
TTU vs ARK(-11.5)
Week 3 of 2014

TTU - Offense
Yardage: 592 ypg
Performance: 50 (higher is better)
Scoring: 41
Efficiency: 14 (lower is better)
Performance: 5 (higher is better)
TTU - Defense
Yardage: 546 ypg allowed
Performance: -22 (higher is better)
Scoring: 36
Efficiency: 14 (higher is better)
Performance: 7 (higher is better)

ARK - Offense
Yardage: 344 ypg
Performance: 0 (higher is better)
Scoring: 21
Efficiency: 15 (lower is better)
Performance: 5 (higher is better)
ARK - Defense
Yardage: 291 ypg allowed
Performance: 53 (higher is better)
Scoring: 11
Efficiency: 26 (higher is better)
Performance: 84 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: TTU 13 (394 yards), ARK 32 (524 yards)
TTU best case: TTU 21 (577 yards), ARK 17 (416 yards)
ARK best case: TTU 6 (276 yards), ARK 46 (679 yards)

TTU talent: 6795
ARK talent: 7357
TTU talent of schedule: 5388
ARK talent of schedule: 6420

Suggested talent adjustment: 7% towards ARK best case
Final: TTU 13 (384 yards), ARK 33 (536 yards)
Click to expand...

Wow how bad is Texas Tech?

Predictor said:
MEM vs BGSU(+3)
Week 3 of 2014

MEM - Offense
Yardage: 452 ypg
Performance: 8 (higher is better)
Scoring: 40
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 23 (higher is better)
MEM - Defense
Yardage: 322 ypg allowed
Performance: 6 (higher is better)
Scoring: 14
Efficiency: 22 (higher is better)
Performance: 36 (higher is better)

BGSU - Offense
Yardage: 449 ypg
Performance: 13 (higher is better)
Scoring: 28
Efficiency: 16 (lower is better)
Performance: -8 (higher is better)
BGSU - Defense
Yardage: 445 ypg allowed
Performance: -15 (higher is better)
Scoring: 33
Efficiency: 13 (higher is better)
Performance: -2 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: MEM 46 (530 yards), BGSU 17 (405 yards)
MEM best case: MEM 56 (561 yards), BGSU 10 (346 yards)
BGSU best case: MEM 33 (483 yards), BGSU 25 (485 yards)

MEM talent: 3260
BGSU talent: 2532
MEM talent of schedule: 3144
BGSU talent of schedule: 3997

Suggested talent adjustment: 0% towards BGSU best case
Final: MEM 46 (529 yards), BGSU 17 (405 yards)
Click to expand...

Teams that played Kansas have dumb stats.

Predictor said:
USF vs MD(-7)
Week 3 of 2014

USF - Offense
Yardage: 321 ypg
Performance: -11 (higher is better)
Scoring: 17
Efficiency: 18 (lower is better)
Performance: -26 (higher is better)
USF - Defense
Yardage: 330 ypg allowed
Performance: 30 (higher is better)
Scoring: 20
Efficiency: 15 (higher is better)
Performance: 19 (higher is better)

MD - Offense
Yardage: 339 ypg
Performance: -4 (higher is better)
Scoring: 28
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 16 (higher is better)
MD - Defense
Yardage: 418 ypg allowed
Performance: -13 (higher is better)
Scoring: 30
Efficiency: 13 (higher is better)
Performance: -1 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: USF 23 (372 yards), MD 17 (244 yards)
USF best case: USF 30 (426 yards), MD 13 (214 yards)
MD best case: USF 17 (328 yards), MD 23 (314 yards)

USF talent: 5138
MD talent: 5801
USF talent of schedule: 4476
MD talent of schedule: 5328

Suggested talent adjustment: 7% towards MD best case
Final: USF 22 (369 yards), MD 17 (249 yards)
Click to expand...

Would not surprise me.

Predictor said:
FLA vs UK(+3)
Week 3 of 2014

FLA - Offense
Yardage: 392 ypg
Performance: -1 (higher is better)
Scoring: 36
Efficiency: 10 (lower is better)
Performance: 27 (higher is better)
FLA - Defense
Yardage: 304 ypg allowed
Performance: 46 (higher is better)
Scoring: 14
Efficiency: 20 (higher is better)
Performance: 39 (higher is better)

UK - Offense
Yardage: 342 ypg
Performance: -8 (higher is better)
Scoring: 27
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 25 (higher is better)
UK - Defense
Yardage: 475 ypg allowed
Performance: -11 (higher is better)
Scoring: 38
Efficiency: 12 (higher is better)
Performance: -11 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: FLA 51 (465 yards), UK 14 (202 yards)
FLA best case: FLA 73 (523 yards), UK 9 (146 yards)
UK best case: FLA 33 (432 yards), UK 20 (286 yards)

FLA talent: 11297
UK talent: 6033
FLA talent of schedule: 6224
UK talent of schedule: 6194

Suggested talent adjustment: 26% towards FLA best case
Final: FLA 57 (480 yards), UK 13 (187 yards)
Click to expand...

Kentucky gave up like 150 points over the last 3 games last season and some of that data is really hurting this prediction.

BYU vs UCLA(-17)
Week 3 of 2015

BYU - Offense
Yardage: 474 ypg
Performance: 12 (higher is better)
Scoring: 40
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 15 (higher is better)
BYU - Defense
Yardage: 336 ypg allowed
Performance: 25 (higher is better)
Scoring: 19
Efficiency: 17 (higher is better)
Performance: 33 (higher is better)

UCLA - Offense
Yardage: 432 ypg
Performance: 5 (higher is better)
Scoring: 30
Efficiency: 14 (lower is better)
Performance: 11 (higher is better)
UCLA - Defense
Yardage: 322 ypg allowed
Performance: 31 (higher is better)
Scoring: 17
Efficiency: 18 (higher is better)
Performance: 32 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: BYU 18 (336 yards), UCLA 17 (322 yards)
BYU best case: BYU 23 (392 yards), UCLA 12 (269 yards)
UCLA best case: BYU 12 (263 yards), UCLA 23 (356 yards)

BYU talent: 4102
UCLA talent: 9043
BYU talent of schedule: 4163
UCLA talent of schedule: 7235

Suggested talent adjustment: 40% towards UCLA best case
Final: BYU 16 (307 yards), UCLA 19 (336 yards)
Click to expand...

Do I detect a hail mary?
 
coit said:
What do you make of the FLA prediction?

Also, is that Louisiana Tech and Colorado State?
Click to expand...

The predictor loves defense, a yard is a yard and a point is a point. It's not a perfect method, that's for sure.
 
Seems like it's getting less accurate based on the fcs opener results than just simply using last year's data.
 
+1 credibility for predicting Purdue to get wrecked.

-1 credibility for predicting Maryland to keep it close with South Florida. The Terps are going to get curb-stomped.

+1 credibility for the UF-UK pick. I think Florida is going to have a better year than the experts say, maybe in line with a Gailey year here. They'll crush UK, go to OT with Tennessee, beat Georgia and lose to Vanderbilt.
 
The weekly game preview and the predictor will be back tomorrow. A combination of wounded butt, car problems, and a double workload this week have kept me from doing anything football related.

I'll do better next time, etc.

BTW I am straight.
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
The weekly game preview and the predictor will be back tomorrow. A combination of wounded butt, car problems, and a double workload this week have kept me from doing anything football related.

I'll do better next time, etc.

BTW I am straight.
Click to expand...

Are you sorry it's late?
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
The weekly game preview and the predictor will be back tomorrow. A combination of wounded butt, car problems, and a double workload this week have kept me from doing anything football related.

I'll do better next time, etc.

BTW I am straight.
Click to expand...

Do you still identify as Nicholas Cage?
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
The weekly game preview and the predictor will be back tomorrow. A combination of wounded butt, car problems, and a double workload this week have kept me from doing anything football related.

I'll do better next time, etc.

BTW I am straight.
Click to expand...


You'll do better next time? This isn't a pity party. Didn't this board have a lot of drama with this kind of post earlier in the week? ;)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top