Predictor Week 3

ThisIsAtlanta said:
#Rank: ('Team', [Wins, Losses, Ties, MoV])

I had the predictor simulate a 200 team round robin to determine a top 25.
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Why did you write a Deshaun Watson factor into the predictor???
 
It's actually a defensive thing, their MoV was 7,000 points lower than the next team throughout the round robin. Means they are winning a ton of low scoring games.

The one that makes me mad is Arkansas at #8. :lol:
 
Arkansas over Mich St seems like an outlier. How many weeks do you usually need to spin up your model? Or does it initialize using last year?
 
It is still using some data for last year at this point. Week 4 or 5 depending on byes and FCS games is when I have a complete enough data set to see the best results.

I think part of Clemson and Arkansas being as high as they are is recruiting rankings. Clemson has high rankings and Arkansas is getting credit for playing SEC teams with high rankings from last year.
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
It's actually a defensive thing, their MoV was 7,000 points lower than the next team throughout the round robin. Means they are winning a ton of low scoring games.

The one that makes me mad is Arkansas at #8. :lol:
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They do have a very difficult schedule. Just ask Bielema.
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
It is still using some data for last year at this point. Week 4 or 5 depending on byes and FCS games is when I have a complete enough data set to see the best results.
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So at that point will you remove last year's results from the predictor?
 
johncu said:
So at that point will you remove last year's results from the predictor?
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I may be able to remove them as early as next week, but with the reduced data set, some results against FCS opponents may become much more pronounced, which is why I like to have a little more data. Don't be surprised if it predicts us to beat Duke by like 400 points.
 
makesmemoist.jpg~c200
 
you shouldn't use last year's data for Notre Dame. That team was decimated by injuries.
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
I may be able to remove them as early as next week, but with the reduced data set, some results against FCS opponents may become much more pronounced, which is why I like to have a little more data. Don't be surprised if it predicts us to beat Duke by like 400 points.
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Did you run the predictor for ND last week?
 
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