Prep Time 2012

gtzulu said:
Confounding factor: BCS teams we play after a longer break are typically better BCS teams. We purposely schedule that way.

This could be corrected for by determining the average ranking of >=8-day teams and then randomly choosing a subset of teams from the <=7-day teams that has the same average ranking. I would not be surprised if then p > 0.05 when comparing the records.
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That was addressed when I looked at the offensive stats above since it takes into account how good their defensive yards per play are.

With W-L record, we don't have enough data to go around sampling one of the smaller sets, but I would be interested to see what happens when you do that.

FWIW, out of the 15 games against teams with extra time, we were favored to win in 7 of them (only won 1 of those 7) and the opponent was favored in 8 of them (won 3 of those.)
 
beej67 said:
Unless they pull a Wake I think it helps us.

(recall when Wake played Navy the week before, they switched defenses completely in the week, and we practiced against all the wrong fronts going into that game)
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That was a brilliant move by WF. I remember watching that game and two plays in going --- uh, that's not how they lined up at all against Navy.

Still susceptible to the midline though.
 
A preparation thread:

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cyptomcat said:
I am updating my look into GT offense against teams with extra time with 2011 data. Will post in a new thread.

edit: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ar8cqnkh36RRdENBQk1fRTYyRDFIVTdOa1Q0cXNrbGc&output=html

Against BCS opponents:
21-8 (.72) when they have 7 days or less to prepare
4-11 (.27) when they have 8 or more
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Again, incredibly short shrift. Looking at wins and losses to prove this point is like looking to GDP growth for incumbent presidents to figure out if Republicans or Democrats are better. It treats a very complicated, nuanced subject with the touch of a rapist.
 
And just to be clear cyptomcat, I appreciate the work and effort you are putting into this analysis, just respectfully disagree with some of it.
 
cyptomcat said:
Below is what I have done before. I have updated the data to 2008-2011. The difference is 1.07 with extra prep. vs. 1.19 with no extra prep. There was a small mistake before because I didn't separate the two sets before calculation the means previously.

I have done a t-test on the set of the ratio numbers, and there is only about 10% chance there is no statistical meaning to these numbers.
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I'm pretty sure that's because there is some meaning - namely that a defense with more preparation time is, not surprisingly, more prepared.

A lot of work but it would be interesting to see the ypp difference for other offenses.
 
Legal Jacket said:
Again, incredibly short shrift. Looking at wins and losses to prove this point...
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Point? My only point is that opponent prep time has more of an effect on our wins/losses than it does against most other teams, if not all other teams. I'm not making a distinction why. We can talk about the why later. And the data supports my point 100%.

If you dare, make the same analysis with everyone else in the ACC. I dare you to find a counter example. We are epicly worse than other teams in this regard.
 
I will look at the YPP ratio for a few other ACC teams since haywire looked at their schedules and compiled their extra time stats last year.

Some mentioned how extra time is beneficial, but that's not true. Extra layoff does hurt you as well in addition to providing a benefit. There is actual data to back this up shown below.

Mismatches where the team coming off the bye week was favored.

There were 40 such contests in the span I looked at, and the favored team coming off of a bye week went 34-6 (.850). In overall games from my last upset study, the favored team went 203-22 (.902). The sample set sizes are a bit different, so it may just be noise that favored teams ended up doing worse coming off of a bye week than overall games. Either way, it certainly not a clear advantage to be coming off of a bye week as the favored team.

The upsets, if you're curious, are as follows: 2002 South Carolina (5 wins) over Kentucky (7), 2003 Vanderbilt (2) over Kentucky (4), 2003 Florida (8) over LSU (13), 2003 Texas Tech (8) over Ole Miss (10), 2005 Tennessee (5) over LSU (11), and 2008 Tennessee (5) over Kentucky (7).

Mismatches where the team coming off the bye week was not favored.

There were 37 such contests in the span I looked at, and the underdogs coming off of bye weeks were 6-31 (.162). In overall games, underdogs were 22-203 (.098). The same caveat about sample size applies, so again, the difference could just be noise. Still, it would appear that there is some kind of advantage presented for underdogs coming off of bye weeks versus underdogs overall.

tossups
In tossups, we should see teams coming off of bye weeks winning more than half of the time if there really is some kind of advantage. Right? Right.

Unfortunately, that's not what the numbers say. Teams coming off of bye weeks in tossup games are just 13-19 (.406). At home, they're an even .500 (8-8) and on the road they're just 4-11 (.267). There was one neutral site tossup where Florida (9 wins) beat Georgia (10) in 2005, but D.J. Shockley's injury played a much bigger role in the Bulldogs' loss than UF's bye week did.
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http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2010/4/15/1424019/how-much-do-bye-weeks-matter
 
cyptomcat said:
I will look at the YPP ratio for a few other ACC teams since haywire looked at their schedules and compiled their extra time stats last year.

Some mentioned how extra time is beneficial, but that's not true. Extra layoff does hurt you as well in addition to providing a benefit. There is actual data to back this up shown below.


http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2010/4/15/1424019/how-much-do-bye-weeks-matter
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This says to me, it's much more about team strength than prep time. In our W/L columns for extra/no prep time, how often were we favored, tossups, and underdogs? I don't know where to get this data, but it would be interesting to see if it correlates.
 
Legal Jacket said:
I would characterize it as a simpler, wiser question. Probably cuts both ways since (i) the same advantage should be bestowed on both teams (our D is also getting an extra week to prepare) and (ii) the offense also gets an extra week to prepare for the defense.

In any event, I would expect that, with more time to prepare, a better team simply gets better and is more likely to beat a lesser team.[/QUOTE]

Who can argue agaisnt this???
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beej67 said:
So nobody comes close to having the same sort of prep time differential that GT does. And those numbers actually probably got worse after 2011.
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Again, the main problem is that strength of opponent isn't taken into account at all. You should also look at the avg win % of opponents with 8+ days off to see if the delta is simply caused by us playing tougher opponents. Not to mention away v. home split, etc. There are so few data points, particularly for the 8+ days rest category, that looking at W/L is largely meaningless.

Not to mention that our 7 or less day off win % is ridiculously high (84.2%, 2nd in the ACC and 28% over average), while our 8+ day off win % is slightly better than average (4th in the ACC and 5.95% over average). The funny thing is, none of you have come close to stating the obvious - it's more likely that our 8+ win % is where we should be as a team and our 7 or less prep time is enhanced because our offense is so difficult to prepare for. Thus, the delta doesn't represent a suppressed 8 or more result, but rather an improved 7 or less %.

Put another way, teams can't adequately prepare for our offense in 7 days but they can adequately prepare for other offenses in 7. It's just as likely, if not more so, that our 84.2 seven day off win % is caused by teams not being able to prepare for our offense than our 50% 8+ day off win % is caused by teams figuring our offense out.
 
Legal Jacket said:
Again, the main problem is that strength of opponent isn't taken into account at all. You should also look at the avg win % of opponents with 8+ days off to see if the delta is simply caused by us playing tougher opponents. Not to mention away v. home split, etc. There are so few data points, particularly for the 8+ days rest category, that looking at W/L is largely meaningless.
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Yes this. I'm no statistician, but I think we need to look at the conditional distributions for performance given both prep time and opponent's season winning percentage.

A simple exercise would be to compute f(s|t,o) where

s: some metric of success (W/L or preferably scoring differential)
t: prep time (<= 7 days and > 7 days)
o: opponent's end-of-season record (maybe o >= 0.65 and o < 0.65)

Then compare across each factor holding the other constant.
 
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