Prep Time 2012

gtzulu said:
Sure, but my point was p = ~0.1 is not generally considered statistically significant. p < 0.05 is the usual cutoff for declaring something statistically significant. So to me you have shown either:
(1) We don't have enough data yet to say that there is a statistically significant connection between yardage per play and preparation days.
(2) There is not a connection between preparation days and yardage per play.

0.1 is in the realm of "interesting", though, I'd say.
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yeah 0.05 is usually used, and personally I would even look for 0.01. If we have couple more seasons of the same kind of results, the p value would be about 0.05. (Just ran the numbers).

Regardless, when you have to form an opinion, p value is one stat you bring into the discussion. Remember this discussion didn't start because of some random stats. This discussion started years ago when A LOT of people thought extra time against triple option would be beneficial. It was just a 'myth' then. Since then the hypothesis has materialized in win loss stats and offensive stats. Starting with that hypothesis, my numbers do say there is only ~10% probability the numbers happened by bad testing observations.

ae87, extra time seems like an advantage against us, but I have not claimed that it is the complete explanation of results for a single game.
 
AE 87 said:
GT was leading 24 10 after the 3rd quarter of the Sun Bowl. Sims was out. Orwin was hobbled. Julian Burnett gets injured. Philthy was suspended. Shaq Mason gets hurt. We end up losing by 3 in overtime.
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That was because we tried to sit on a lead and take the air out of the ball in the 4Q.
 
Here's the thing I don't get, (I apologize in advance if this has been brought up already as I haven't read the entire thread):

How can you say,

a) this particular offense is hell to prepare for in 3 days out of one side of your mouth, and

b) extra prep time isn't any more significant for this particular offense out of the other?

Many, many, many college coaches have said a. It's only logical to assume b is not what they're thinking.
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
The error that you're making here, that I also made, is in assuming they are talking about prep time specifically for our offense. Beej and cyp are talking about prep time for the game, and aren't getting any more granular in their statements than that.
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So, the argument is that prep time is a factor for our uniform? They're lumping together data from two different Def Coord's. They're not taking into account key injuries. They're not taking into account opponent strength, actual score/yardage versus team averages, etc.

I'm not saying that extra-prep time isn't a factor for everybody, but I am saying that only a drunk would think the data they are using supports the conclusion they're making.
 
AE 87 said:
So, the argument is that prep time is a factor for our uniform? They're lumping together data from two different Def Coord's. They're not taking into account key injuries. They're not taking into account opponent strength, actual score/yardage versus team averages, etc.

I'm not saying that extra-prep time isn't a factor for everybody, but I am saying that only a drunk would think the data they are using supports the conclusion they're making.
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The data we're showing has a 90% chance of supporting the conclusion we're making. By the math.

Prep for the option probably has something to do with it. But I think teams practice harder vs us, which would show up spread around all aspects of the game, statistically.
 
beej67 said:
The data we're showing has a 90% chance of supporting the conclusion we're making. By the math.

Prep for the option probably has something to do with it. But I think teams practice harder vs us, which would show up spread around all aspects of the game, statistically.
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That's just not right. Embarrassingly wrong on your part, imo.
 
AE 87 said:
So, the argument is that prep time is a factor for our uniform? They're lumping together data from two different Def Coord's. They're not taking into account key injuries. They're not taking into account opponent strength, actual score/yardage versus team averages, etc.

I'm not saying that extra-prep time isn't a factor for everybody, but I am saying that only a drunk would think the data they are using supports the conclusion they're making.
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yeah that's why many have talked about this before no stats, and then several different sources including AJC and ESPN cited it with stats since.

Opponent strength is indeed accounted for in some of the stats. The numbers are all there, I have made it available for all, why don't you do some number crunching and show us how we are wrong? Talk is cheap.
 
I figured I would spend couple more minutes on this on our record vs BCS opponents.

When GT is favored by Vegas:
18-3 with 7 days or less
2-6 with extra time for the opponent

When the opponent is favored by Vegas:
4-6 with 7 days or less
2-5 with extra time for the opponent
 
cyptomcat said:
I figured I would spend couple more minutes on this on our record vs BCS opponents.

When GT is favored by Vegas:
18-3 with 7 days or less
2-6 with extra time for the opponent

When the opponent is favored by Vegas:
4-6 with 7 days or less
2-5 with extra time for the opponent
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That definitively eliminates the strength of schedule complaint.
 
beej67 said:
That definitively eliminates the strength of schedule complaint.
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The most damning part of that is the difference in effects.

The effect of GT being favored vs. not on winning percentage:
.69 vs. .35

The effect of opponent's regular prep vs extra time on winning percentage:
.71 vs. .27

Is there anyone in their right mind that would say who is favored does not have an effect on the outcome of the game result? Well we got evidence of something that has even more of an effect on the game result.

BOOM

end of story
 
cyptomcat said:
The most damning part of that is the difference in effects.

The effect of GT being favored vs. not on winning percentage:
.69 vs. .35

The effect of opponent's regular prep vs extra time on winning percentage:
.71 vs. .27

Is there anyone in their right mind that would say who is favored does not have an effect on the outcome of the game result? Well we got evidence of something that has even more of an effect on the game result.

BOOM

end of story
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Boom yourself. Again, you are only proving the obvious. I think we all agreed two days ago that a team with more time to prepare will be better prepared. That's all you are showing.
 
Legal Jacket said:
Boom yourself. Again, you are only proving the obvious. I think we all agreed two days ago that a team with more time to prepare will be better prepared. That's all you are showing.
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We're showing that a team having more than a week to prepare versus us is a MORE TELLING INDICATOR THAN BEING FAVORED TO WIN BY LAS VEGAS.

Dear lord, man. Can you imagine how much money we can win off of this?
 
cyptomcat said:
I figured I would spend couple more minutes on this on our record vs BCS opponents.

When GT is favored by Vegas:
18-3 with 7 days or less
2-6 with extra time for the opponent

When the opponent is favored by Vegas:
4-6 with 7 days or less
2-5 with extra time for the opponent
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Ok, now show the median and average that Tech/opponent was favored by in each circumstance. With these small sample sizes, it's entirely possible that Tech was favored by much larger amounts in the 7-days category than in the extra days category. I'd expect a better record in cases where Tech was favored heavily than by half a point.

Then do the same thing for a group of teams with similar schedules, say the other members of the Coastal Division. Then we might have something meaningful to talk about and stubbornly stick to our prior beliefs no matter the result.
 
Legal Jacket said:
Boom yourself. Again, you are only proving the obvious. I think we all agreed two days ago that a team with more time to prepare will be better prepared. That's all you are showing.
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Boom wasn't for you, since you already agreed on most of the main premise. There was still disagreement on that by others even on that part.

Why do teams coming off bye weeks do much worse than when they are coming off a bye week against Tech? I think we also agreed on this before, that extra time against the Tech offense is worth more than extra time against a 'typical' offense.

To compare:

Mismatches where the team coming off the bye week was favored.

There were 40 such contests in the span I looked at, and the favored team coming off of a bye week went 34-6 (.850). In overall games from my last upset study, the favored team went 203-22 (.902). The sample set sizes are a bit different, so it may just be noise that favored teams ended up doing worse coming off of a bye week than overall games. Either way, it certainly not a clear advantage to be coming off of a bye week as the favored team.

The upsets, if you're curious, are as follows: 2002 South Carolina (5 wins) over Kentucky (7), 2003 Vanderbilt (2) over Kentucky (4), 2003 Florida (8) over LSU (13), 2003 Texas Tech (8) over Ole Miss (10), 2005 Tennessee (5) over LSU (11), and 2008 Tennessee (5) over Kentucky (7).

Mismatches where the team coming off the bye week was not favored.

There were 37 such contests in the span I looked at, and the underdogs coming off of bye weeks were 6-31 (.162). In overall games, underdogs were 22-203 (.098). The same caveat about sample size applies, so again, the difference could just be noise. Still, it would appear that there is some kind of advantage presented for underdogs coming off of bye weeks versus underdogs overall.

tossups
In tossups, we should see teams coming off of bye weeks winning more than half of the time if there really is some kind of advantage. Right? Right.

Unfortunately, that's not what the numbers say. Teams coming off of bye weeks in tossup games are just 13-19 (.406). At home, they're an even .500 (8-8) and on the road they're just 4-11 (.267). There was one neutral site tossup where Florida (9 wins) beat Georgia (10) in 2005, but D.J. Shockley's injury played a much bigger role in the Bulldogs' loss than UF's bye week did.
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http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2010/4/15/1424019/how-much-do-bye-weeks-matter
 
beej67 said:
We're showing that a team having more than a week to prepare versus us is a MORE TELLING INDICATOR THAN BEING FAVORED TO WIN BY LAS VEGAS.

Dear lord, man. Can you imagine how much money we can win off of this?
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Not much unless you dig deeper and at least look at the spreads, not just who was favored. But it's your money.
 
beej67 said:
That definitively eliminates the strength of schedule complaint.
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Actually it doesn't eliminate that at all. As an initial matter, the Vegas line should take into account all factors, including time off before each game. Even if that's not true, and Vegas somehow doesn't take the time off into account, all the numbers prove is that a team that has more time to prepare will be better prepared. It doesn't prove that our situation is any different than that of other teams.

Second, you have to look at margins, not just whether we are favored. For example, we could be favored by 1 point and lose by 1 point to an opponent with extra time to prepare. 2 point swings in football are relatively meaningless, especially when you are looking at a small number of data points like we are here.

On the other hand, the other team could be favored by 35, has extra time to prepare, and we could lose by 1. We clearly did better than we were supposed to with the other team getting extra time.

Other similar scenarios where the methodology is flawed: (i) We could be favored by a lot on a short prep week and only win by a little or (ii) we could be a slight underdog on a short prep week and lose by a lot.

Again, simply looking at wins and losses proves very little, other than teams with more prep time (not surprisingly) do better.

It also doesn't show WHY they do better. Maybe they are just marginally better in most facets of the game because of greater preparation. Maybe they get better at defending a specific play of ours on offense. Maybe their offense picks up more reads on our defensive coverage, or our blitz packages. Maybe it's just because they are fresher. Who knows. The problems with the oversimplified w-l analysis are (i) we don't know how unique our situation is compared to other teams; (ii) we don't really even know what our situation is (see paragraphs 1-4 above); and (iii) we don't know the full details of how and why it seems we lose more given a certain situation.
 
It doesn't prove that our situation is any different than that of other teams.
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No, but running the same analysis for any other team proves that. And the vegas line comparison throws out your only refutation of comparison to other teams - that somehow our SOS was that much worse than others for the extra prep time games. It's not.
 
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