SI Triple Option Article (Willie Fritz is the Future)

Allen Koholic said:
I crunched the numbers, and decided to look at the O'Leary and Gailey years vs the Johnson years against the four teams we're no longer going to be able to compete with†.

UNC:
  • 94-07: We went .710 against them, while everyone else* went .500
  • 08-17: We're clipping along at .600. Everyone else is doing .49
UVA:
  • 94-07: (the dark years) we had a ööööing .350 winning percentage against the Zima lovers. Everyone else was at .39 (which makes us slightly worse, which we all knew because öööö Hooville)
  • 08-17: We're beating them at a .600 rate, while everyone else is doing .650. (Again, slightly worse. Because, again, öööö Hooville).
Duke:
  • 94-07: (Lulz, Duke sucked in these days) .850. Everyone else, .820.
  • 08-17 (Cutcliffe is a bitch) .700, while everyone else is at .540
Pitt:
  • 94-07:
  • 08-17: We're .600 against Pitt, while everyone else is at .400. (If you include the turd we laid two weeks ago, we're .500 against Pitt)

So, for starters, Paul Johnson is at or above .600 against all of those teams. So, clearly we can still beat them. We're also near or better than the "average" team playing against the Impotent Four (We've been slightly worse than the average against UVA, because, again, öööö Hooville.) We're trending slightly down against UNC, doing way better against the Hoos (obligatory, öööö Hooville), and having a a little more trouble with Duke (and Duke as evidenced, has gotten way better). We're beating the average on Pitt.

*I didn't remove the Tech games from the "everyone else" team games. So when it says "everyone else", it really means their win percentage over that period. I am not running the advanced statistics needed to properly say whether or not we're better than a "replacement football team" against them.

† This is pure bullshit.
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We haven't beaten PITT in 5 years. We've only beaten Duke once since 2014. We're 0.500 against the Cadavers and UNC during that same period. And if Duke has gotten "way better", we've gotten "waaayyy worse".

The trend is clear and it's spiraling downward.
 
RamblinWreck92 said:
We haven't beaten PITT in 5 years. We've only beaten Duke once since 2014. We're 0.500 against the Cadavers and UNC during that same period. And if Duke has gotten "way better", we've gotten "waaayyy worse".

The trend is clear and it's spiraling downward.
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You said that it’s the triple option offense that makes us a .500 team against those four middle-of-the-ACC teams. It doesn’t, as shown by those numbers. Now you’re changing it up to be since 2014. Well, it’s not like Paul Johnson suddenly changed his offense around(Vad Lee not withstanding). So, the problem clearly isn’t the offense, it’s obviously something else.

My position is that we currently are getting out-recruited because we’re a school-first school. 4 stars ain’t gonna be taking calculus. I think we’re getting less exceptions admitted than we did with either O’Leary or Gailey. I believe that Paul Johnson is a good coach. I also believe there are probably a few better coaches, and that maybe one of those coaches could win a national title here. But that guy will be stupidly expensive and will probably bolt as soon as they could since winning here is hard.
 
TechRush said:
I can't wait until we run the same offense as Vanderbilt and lose like Vanderbilt. Our colors are already kind of similar. Hey, we might even be as irrelevant as Vanderbilt too. I f'n can't wait! When was the last time Vanderbilt was in any meaningful game? They are so irrelevant you probably can't remember.
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You know why Vandy has such success despite their high standards? It's because they have a wide curriculum in which to hide athletes. If only we had their curriculum we could have their success.
 
Allen Koholic said:
You said that it’s the triple option offense that makes us a .500 team against those four middle-of-the-ACC teams. It doesn’t, as shown by those numbers. Now you’re changing it up to be since 2014. Well, it’s not like Paul Johnson suddenly changed his offense around(Vad Lee not withstanding). So, the problem clearly isn’t the offense, it’s obviously something else.

My position is that we currently are getting out-recruited because we’re a school-first school. 4 stars ain’t gonna be taking calculus. I think we’re getting less exceptions admitted than we did with either O’Leary or Gailey. I believe that Paul Johnson is a good coach. I also believe there are probably a few better coaches, and that maybe one of those coaches could win a national title here. But that guy will be stupidly expensive and will probably bolt as soon as they could since winning here is hard.
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I believe our offense also hinders recruiting.

The TO has definitely made us a 0.500 team and a middle-pack ACC team. I'm not talking how we did in 2009 but how we've done lately, which is what matters most to recruits. If we go back far enough, we can say that we're a national-championship contender, since we actually were 27 years ago. But no HS recruit believes we are now and we've not been relevant in the ACC in almost 5 years.

Sadly, the solution is simple and something CPJ has done before: Make us a more-balanced attack by throwing it more often and we won't look so archaic. It's doubtful that will occur though. Like you said, CPJ isn't going to suddenly change the offense, even for a shotgun-QB talent like James Graham. Poor kid's talent will probably be wasted under center but hopefully not for more than 1 season.
 
18in32 said:
You know why Vandy has such success despite their high standards? It's because they have a wide curriculum in which to hide athletes. If only we had their curriculum we could have their success.
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Vanderbilt last beat the mutts the same year we last did so things must be going great there!!
 
RamblinWreck92 said:
I believe our offense also hinders recruiting.

The TO has definitely made us a 0.500 team and a middle-pack ACC team. I'm not talking how we did in 2009 but how we've done lately, which is what matters most to recruits. If we go back far enough, we can say that we're a national-championship contender, since we actually were 27 years ago. But no HS recruit believes we are now and we've not been relevant in the ACC in almost 5 years.

Sadly, the solution is simple and something CPJ has done before: Make us a more-balanced attack by throwing it more often and we won't look so archaic. It's doubtful that will occur though. Like you said, CPJ isn't going to suddenly change the offense, even for a shotgun-QB talent like James Graham. Poor kid's talent will probably be wasted under center but hopefully not for more than 1 season.
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The offense has a negative impact on recruiting, which is already exceedingly difficult due to the academics.
 
ramblinwreck24 said:
Like literally every college coach I have been around and talked football with has said that they hope we drop the offense when Johnson is gone. Yeah those coaches regularly beat us but they will be the first to honestly tell you it's not the offense.
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Maybe not. Maybe its just the coach.
 
When were we not a "middle of the pack" ACC team?
  • O'Leary's ACC record: .571
  • Gailey's ACC record: .561
  • Paul Johnson's ACC record: .566
If anything, 2015 and 2017 are regressing us to mean. And this is with O'Leary and Gailey getting greater flexibility in academic waivers.
 
TechRush said:
I can't wait until we run the same offense as Vanderbilt and lose like Vanderbilt. Our colors are already kind of similar. Hey, we might even be as irrelevant as Vanderbilt too. I f'n can't wait! When was the last time Vanderbilt was in any meaningful game? They are so irrelevant you probably can't remember.
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Wasn’t there a big game against Alabama a year or two ago where Vandy was undefeated (and maybe ranked?).

That didn’t turn out so well, though.

Edit: looked it up, it was last year. Vandy has just beaten Kansas st. Lost 59-0
 
Allen Koholic said:
Also, I love how some jackoff big cried my numbers post. I’m sorry you don’t like math. You should work on that.
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That's the guy that searches through every thread and big cries anything resembling a positive post about GT.
 
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