Some Of You Are Going To Dislike This

moochie said:
I can prove almost anything by statistics, occasionally even the truth! George Canning

Quite honestly, i would bet those stats would hold true for many, many coaches. Coaches in year one or two of a program typically inherit fb programs with problems. those teams would normally lose to established coaches and offenses.
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But it is not first year coaches. It is the first time he faced them. There is a difference. For example, an Atlantic division coach at an established program rotating to play a coastal opponent.

And it does not address the abysmal performance he had facing coaches he coached before.
 
286 more yards of O than opponent.

23 more minutes in Time of Possession.

15 more First Downs.

And we lose the damn game
 
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texstinger said:
286 more yards of O than opponent.

23 more minutes in Time of Possession.

15 more First Downs.

And you lose the damn game
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Thankfully we're going to lose games with a lot different looking statistics in the next five years.
 
Techbert said:
Did you not see the analysis that shows that every single point he made was inaccurate?
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- CPJ was an offensive genius
- CPJ was not a genius head coach
- CPJ was a poor recruiter for reasons he controlled (his system, his personality, his antiquated recruiting policies, his effort, his loyalty to lazy recruiters) and reasons he didn't (limited budget)
- beej's post is tinfoil nuttery

SPOT ON IMHO...

Bobby Ross, George Oleary, Paul Johnson were great Coaches at Tech... I am hopeful that Geoff Collins can have the same type success that those three had. IIWII Go Jackets!
 
beej67 said:
Thankfully we're going to lose games with a lot different looking statistics in the next five years.
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I really have to say: I disagree... I really believe our defense is going to be nasty... I think the players have bought in.....I really think it will depend on how fast & well Sims/Gleason can "get" & "run" the offense at the college level... Sims & Gleason could be the next Joe Ham/ George Godsey
 
texstinger said:
UT and butch freaking jones.

Start of the end.
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Unfortunately true. The 2017 team knew how to lose. The reason the VPI game was even close with a chance to lose was because a lot of crappy events in the 2nd half. But if Fuente was smart enough not to threw deep balls on 3rd and 4th and inches, that is probably a loss too.
 
Techbert said:
But it is not first year coaches. It is the first time he faced them. There is a difference. For example, an Atlantic division coach at an established program rotating to play a coastal opponent.

And it does not address the abysmal performance he had facing coaches he coached before.
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Doesn't this turn into a bit of selection bias though? For Johnson to face a coach 3+ times or more, doesn't that coach have to be doing something pretty well in general. I don't have your data, but can you check how well Johnson did in 1st time facing, 2nd time facing, etc for the same sample of coaches? Leaving out any coaches he did not face at least 3-4 times, for example.

Edit: Thinking about this more, it seems even more clear that this would be skewed in this way. How many coaches outside of Clemson, UGA, and Coastal opponents did Johnson even face 3 or more times?
 
Duke, for one.

Crappy UNC and UVA coaches. And more you've forgotten.

If CPJ was of a quality to survive so long, you can't really defend him by saying he's not as good as other coaches that kept their jobs.
 
Techbert said:
Duke, for one.

Crappy UNC and UVA coaches. And more you've forgotten.

If CPJ was of a quality to survive so long, you can't really defend him by saying he's not as good as other coaches that kept their jobs.
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Ok, so I guess you aren't willing to do the analysis. Based on a very short search, here are the coaches I found that CPJ faced 3+ times and the outcomes:

Frank Beamer: L W L L L L W L
Justin Fuente: W W W
Mike London: W L W W W L
Bronco Mendenhall: W L W
Randy Shannon: W L L
Al Golden: L L L W
Mark Richt (UGA/UM): W L L L L L W / L L W
Butch Davis: L W W
Larry Fedora: W W L L L W W
David Cutcliffe: W W W W W W W L L W L L
Pat Narduzzi: L L W L
Dabo Swinney: W W L W L L W L L L L

So that is 8-4 in first years, 6-6 in second years, 6-6 in third years, 4-4 in fourth years, 2-4 in fifth years, 2-4 in sixth years, 5-0 in seventh years. Any farther and you are down to just Richt/Swinney/Cutcliffe, which are three of the best teams we were playing year in and year out.
 
ITJacket said:
Ok, so I guess you aren't willing to do the analysis. Based on a very short search, here are the coaches I found that CPJ faced 3+ times and the outcomes:

Frank Beamer: L W L L L L W L
Justin Fuente: W W W
Mike London: W L W W W L
Bronco Mendenhall: W L W
Randy Shannon: W L L
Al Golden: L L L W
Mark Richt (UGA/UM): W L L L L L W / L L W
Butch Davis: L W W
Larry Fedora: W W L L L W W
David Cutcliffe: W W W W W W W L L W L L
Pat Narduzzi: L L W L
Dabo Swinney: W W L W L L W L L L L

So that is 8-4 in first years, 6-6 in second years, 6-6 in third years, 4-4 in fourth years, 2-4 in fifth years, 2-4 in sixth years, 5-0 in seventh years. Any farther and you are down to just Richt/Swinney/Cutcliffe, which are three of the best teams we were playing year in and year out.
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So is your position that we should not be able to compete with Duke and Miami? Those two teams aggregated for a losing conference record the last two years.

PS. Cutcliffe beat Johnson the 7th time they faced off. You might want to check your work for other errors.
 
Techbert said:
So is your position that we should not be able to compete with Duke and Miami? Those two teams aggregated for a losing conference record the last two years.

PS. Cutcliffe beat Johnson the 7th time they faced off. You might want to check your work for other errors.
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Eh, my point was really more "your analysis is inherently biased" and that there was not a statistically significant relationship between how many times CPJ had faced a coach and how successful he was, once you controlled for other variables.
 
ITJacket said:
Eh, my point was really more "your analysis is inherently biased" and that there was not a statistically significant relationship between how many times CPJ had faced a coach and how successful he was, once you controlled for other variables.
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Then your point is as bad as your data accuracy.

Basically, you threw out data solely because Duke and Miami are too tough for you. You have embraced guaranteed mediocrity as your standard.
 
Techbert said:
Did you not see the analysis that shows that every single point he made was inaccurate?
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The real question is whether or not he owns a white lab coat.

If "yes" he is an "expert". His analysis may look wrong but you cannot contest it.
 
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