Wesley Wells

Who kicked our last kickoff, line drive through corner of endzone? That was best kickoff this season.
 
Everybody knows we should have kicked it.

Everybody knows we should have gone for it.
 
I’d have gone for it. Took a sloppy snap for them to stop us.
 
Sometimes the statistically correct decision still leads to a bad outcome.

If you convert 50% of your 4th and short opportunities in FG range, and then score TDs instead of FGs, over time you net about 7 points for every 6 points kicking. That's a simplification and doesn't factor in yardage or missed kicks/failures to score the TD or PAT, but the point is that a coach making a correct statistical decision will only be judged by the outcome, regardless of his understanding of odds. There are too many variables to calculate the exact odds for every decision over the course of a game, but the strategy should be to play odds in your favor.
 
jacket67 said:
Sometimes the statistically correct decision still leads to a bad outcome.

If you convert 50% of your 4th and short opportunities in FG range, and then score TDs instead of FGs, over time you net about 7 points for every 6 points kicking. That's a simplification and doesn't factor in yardage or missed kicks/failures to score the TD or PAT, but the point is that a coach making a correct statistical decision will only be judged by the outcome, regardless of his understanding of odds. There are too many variables to calculate the exact odds for every decision over the course of a game, but the strategy should be to play odds in your favor.
Click to expand...
If the successful conversion on fourth down in FG range results in four or five more plays, that factors into time of possession, even if you subsequently end up attempting a field goal. In the specific case under discussion, I still think we should have kicked.
 
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