What bothers me about this recruiting class

PJ clearly is a run first coach. So what? If we can't run he's not stupid enough to keep doing the same thing over and over, and if we can, why throw it until we want to? I don't care how much we do what, as long as he's as productive as he's been everywhere else he's coached we will be fine.
 
ncjacket, you are obviously sold on the TO and I hope you are right. The concern that I and others have is what happens when we can't run. There will be a team that shuts down our run. There will also be a team leading in the fourth quarter by two scores. What then? Will we decide to pass? I posted earlier about wanting to see 70/30 run-pass. While I would not consider that a balanced offense, I think that is sufficiently balanced for the TO.
 
wilmoo said:
No, actually its 66 2/3/ 33 1/3-----gets better with each correction !:fingersx::fingersx:
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Actually, it's possible that neither of you are correct. I'm sure you don't need me to tell you that Run/Pass ratio is based on distribution of plays not distribution of yards. So, the offense could average 300 rushing and 150 passing and still pass 70-75% of the time. There's only one scenario where you are right and that is if Rush Y/play = Pass Y/play.

The corrections do get better each time.
 
Contact, I'm not talking about yards. I'm talking about rush plays versus pass plays. Sometimes you've got to run to keep the defense honest and the same goes with passing.

I'm for CPJ and the TO. All I'm saying is I would like to see it morph into something with a little more balance. Running 85% of the time concerns me.
 
dodd_54 said:
ncjacket, you are obviously sold on the TO and I hope you are right. The concern that I and others have is what happens when we can't run. There will be a team that shuts down our run. There will also be a team leading in the fourth quarter by two scores. What then? Will we decide to pass? I posted earlier about wanting to see 70/30 run-pass. While I would not consider that a balanced offense, I think that is sufficiently balanced for the TO.
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I'm not an option expert myself, but as an educated guess, I imagine that IF we have a QB that makes good decisions with the option and can throw, and they are shutting down our run, then we will have no trouble passing on their defense.

In order for that defense to stop our option, they will have to be playing close up, and I imagine, playing man coverage at best. All it would take is a fake option, and a pass, to a probably open WR.
 
jacketup said:
Try 85%, if Navy is any indication. The next run first team was closer to 70%.

Gailey loved the rushing game, but Johnson married it.

We'll see if the triple option (and yes, that's what it is) works at this level. It will be interesting.
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Navy isn't an indication

PJ will pass the ball more here...bet on it.
 
The funniest thing about next year:

We will have to occasionally pass to keep the defense honest.

How many people get to say that phrase?
 
wilmoo said:
No, actually its 66 2/3/ 33 1/3-----gets better with each correction !:fingersx::fingersx:
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Its ACTUALLY 66.6(repeating) and 33.3(repeating) :fingersx:

ContactBuzz said:
Actually, it's possible that neither of you are correct. I'm sure you don't need me to tell you that Run/Pass ratio is based on distribution of plays not distribution of yards. So, the offense could average 300 rushing and 150 passing and still pass 70-75% of the time. There's only one scenario where you are right and that is if Rush Y/play = Pass Y/play.

The corrections do get better each time.
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Uh oh....:eek5:

Of course we were assuming the same number of yards every play....yea thats it. We knew what we were talking about :o
 
I've heard PJ say that if you had 75 plays in a game, you would probably want 50 run, 25 pass. I'll take that...

On WRs... Remember:
* We didn't graduate any WR this year
* We get Melton in from last year's class
* With the focus on getting in several athletic QBs, I imagine some of these guys may end up at WR (Roark with his size is a possibility).
 
As Contact said, I thought it was pretty obvious we were talking about play selection, not yardage. But I guess it's easier to believe I'm a blithering idiot than to consider context. :p

To ensure everyone's preferred definition is met, from 03-07 Navy's run-pass ratio was:

85/15 in plays
83/17 in play selection*
78/22 in yardage

My very humble and probably worthless opinion is that GT will be between 75/25 and 70/30 in run/pass plays and between 70/30 and 60/40 in run/pass yardage.

Here is one original thing that you may not have read about CPJ's offense, because it's an uncharted stat that I figured out despite being both a non-football-player and a low-grade moron:

Navy's much-derided passing attack led the nation in yards per reception over the last five years by a HUGE margin.

Over five seasons Navy averaged 17.6 yards per pass reception. That is an absolutely incredible number. It's really jaw-dropping.

The very best conventional passing attacks average from 12-15 yards per completion. Calvin Johnson averaged less than 17.6 for his career and Joe Hamilton averaged about 15 per completion in his senior year, a figure that was itself incredible.

Navy's average per attempt was about 8.7 yards which is comparable to most good passing attacks, but they only had a 50% completion ratio.

Being a not-very-bright non-football coach, I don't know why they pass for so many big plays. But my uneducated guess is that there are almost no screen passes or short dumps. The defense is kept honest and space is created on the edges with the triple option and other running plays.

So what you're left with is medium to long passing plays. Most prolific passing offenses are comprised largely of short passes. Take those out, and 25-30% is a pretty high passing ratio. It's up to twice as much as Navy passed as well, so it definitely is a huge increase and fits what I think Paul Johnson has been saying in interviews about passing more.

If we pass 25-30% of the time and lead the nation in yards per reception, which is very likely, then even most of the biggest detractors and worriers are gonna LOVE our passing attack.

We're talking run/pass yardage averages of 280/170 to 300/150 over an entire season. That is GT opponents' worst nightmare.

* 83/17 run/pass selection taken from counting sacks as pass plays and also assuming about 1% of run plays are actually scrambles.
 
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gtrat1967 said:
Choice off tackle for 2 yards ..... oh wait, that was this year ...... Sorry - senior moment.
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Actually, Choice ran for 22, down to the Notre Dame 10 yard line, on the first offensive play last year. And then to the 5 on the next play. It was until after that when he got stuffed for no gain on the third play and TB was sacked for a 10 yard loss on the next play.
 
Over five seasons Navy averaged 17.6 yards per pass reception. That is an absolutely incredible number. It's really jaw-dropping.
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They also averaged over 10 yards per ATTEMPT, factoring in incompletions / etc. For comparison, the New England Patriots Average something like 7 and change.
 
beej67 said:
They also averaged over 10 yards per ATTEMPT, factoring in incompletions / etc. For comparison, the New England Patriots Average something like 7 and change.
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No sir, they avg'd about 8.7 per attempt since 03. They had just under a 50% completion rate at 17.6 yards per attempt.

Only two teams have averaged 10 yards per attempt for a season since 99: Auburn 2004 and Hawaii 2006. Joe Hamilton had over 10 yards per attempt but GT overall didn't.

Here are Navy's numbers each season with national rankings that I think are correct:

2007: 16.7 YPC (1st), 9.11 YPA (3rd)
2006: 14.2 YPC (3rd), 6.5 YPA (below avg)
2005: 20.3 YPC (1st), 9.51 YPA (1st)
2004: 18.3 YPC (1st), 9.77 YPA (2nd)
2003: 17.6 YPC (1st), 8.25 YPA (20th)

Of course they were first in rushing per game every season except 2004, when they were third.

Two best seasons were 2005 and 2007.

2005:
1st in yards per completed pass.
1st in yards per attempted pass.
1st in rushing yards per game.
5th in yards per rush (5.70) behind Texas, USC, Cal and aTm.

2007:
1st in yards per completed pass.
3rd in yards per attempted pass.
1st in rushing yards per game.
3rd in yards per rush (5.64) behind WVU and Arkansas.
 
I think the 7-and-change stat for the Patriots I remember included sack yardage as lost yardage, as well as including it as an "attempt."
 
Apples to Oranges

The JohnsonBone (going for all the double entendres I can) uses the pitch as its short pass, while other offenses uses short passes as their short passes.

So you can't fairly compare the yards per catch (or attempt) between the two. A 5 yard swing pass on first down would make Bill Belichick happy, but hurt his average, while Paul Johnson would never have such a thing happen.
 
Wreckbone, Techbert. The preferred terminology is Wreckbone. So sayeth beej.
 
Too Bad We Didn't Run It Two Years Ago

with Manley at QB.

It would have clearly been the Manley JohnsonCoxBallBone.

I'll talk to Paul on NSD, and call it what he calls it. I like Tech Spread, since it reminds the world who the real Tech is. Plus, no confusion about whether there is a "w" or not at the beginning of the name.
 
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