Win probabilities / bowl eligibility

justafan

justafan

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Using ESPN FPI probabilities for our 5 remaining games:

At least 5 wins: 100%
At least 6 wins: 92%
At least 7 wins: 55%
At least 8 wins: 17%
At least 9 wins: 2%
10 wins: 0.1%

Exactly 5 wins: 8%
Exactly 6 wins: 37%
Exactly 7 wins: 38%
Exactly 8 wins: 15%
Exactly 9 wins: 2%
Exactly 10 wins: 0.1%

So our probability of becoming bowl eligible at 6 wins is 92%. If I did the math right.
 
Plus I hate the fighting hunchbacks
There haven’t been enough wins in the series with ND
It goes back a long time
 
If we win out and finish 10-2, would we have a chance to get in the ACCCG and the playoffs?
 
CiraldoForever said:
If we win out and finish 10-2, would we have a chance to get in the ACCCG and the playoffs?
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It’s hard to tell because of the potential log jam at the top of the ACC standings. We only have only have 3 conference games left but the rest of the conference is just now starting the meat of their conference games. SMU has a cake walk and doesn’t play Clemson or Miami. Syracuse and Louisville beat us in head to head tie breakers if they only maintain 2 losses. We’ll need to win out in the ACC and have a lot of help to make it to the ACCCG.
 
TechRush said:
I wanted Chan fired because he could only win 6/7 games a year and couldn't beat UGA, and now I'm feeling great if we get 6 wins. Thanks, Geoff Collins!
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It is but a temporary state of affairs.
 
UPDATED PROBABILITIES - OCTOBER 13TH

At least 5 wins: 100%
At least 6 wins: 94% (+2%)
At least 7 wins: 60% (+5%)
At least 8 wins: 20% (+3%)
At least 9 wins: 3% (+1%)
10 wins: 0.2% (+0.1%)

Exactly 5 wins: 6% (-2%)
Exactly 6 wins: 34% (-3%)
Exactly 7 wins: 39% (+1%)
Exactly 8 wins: 17% (+2%)
Exactly 9 wins: 3% (+1%)
Exactly 10 wins: 0.2% (+0.1%)

ESPN's Matchup Predictor seems to see us as a little stronger after our UNC win, as would be expected.
 
ACC standings are strange - we’ve played five conference games already, and six teams have played only two.
IMG_6493.jpeg
 
Too much troll not enough ball from Cal.
 
jacket67 said:
None of the teams on our schedule look unbeatable at this point. I'm hoping Miami is 9-0 when we play them and we get an 8 PM kickoff with temperatures in the 40s.
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None of them look like sure wins either. To pull a line from Paul Johnson's book ... they better rep the fool outta special teams this week.
 
ESPN FPI probabilities for our 5 remaining games:

ND - 16.6%
VT - 39.3%
Miami - 29.3%
NC ST - 80.4%
Georgia - 11.5%

ESPN has us at 6-6 with beating NC State.
 
Bowl Projections 10/13/2024::
CBS- Jerry Palm
Dec. 28Militaryteam logo
Georgia Tech		vs.
team logo
Memphis		ACC vs. AAC

247:
Holiday Bowl

Projection: Georgia Tech vs. Washington

The Yellow Jackets' notable win at North Carolina puts Georgia Tech one victory shy of bowl eligibility through seven games with a showdown against Notre Dame on the horizon. The back end of the slate is loaded with quality competition. Washington stubbed its toe at Iowa a week after clubbing Michigan at home — such is life in the Big Ten.

collegefootballnetwork.com:
ReliaQuest Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Michigan
 
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