justafan
college sports doomer
- Joined
- Feb 18, 2009
- Messages
- 4,846
Using ESPN FPI probabilities for our 5 remaining games:
At least 5 wins: 100%
At least 6 wins: 92%
At least 7 wins: 55%
At least 8 wins: 17%
At least 9 wins: 2%
10 wins: 0.1%
Exactly 5 wins: 8%
Exactly 6 wins: 37%
Exactly 7 wins: 38%
Exactly 8 wins: 15%
Exactly 9 wins: 2%
Exactly 10 wins: 0.1%
So our probability of becoming bowl eligible at 6 wins is 92%. If I did the math right.
At least 5 wins: 100%
At least 6 wins: 92%
At least 7 wins: 55%
At least 8 wins: 17%
At least 9 wins: 2%
10 wins: 0.1%
Exactly 5 wins: 8%
Exactly 6 wins: 37%
Exactly 7 wins: 38%
Exactly 8 wins: 15%
Exactly 9 wins: 2%
Exactly 10 wins: 0.1%
So our probability of becoming bowl eligible at 6 wins is 92%. If I did the math right.