2018 Preseason Probability Poll Results

RamblinWreck92 said:
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7-0. Sucks to be right all the time!
 
OP updated for Game 7 results:

Our Game 7 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.665. The total expected win value is now 5.940.

As he has already told us, @RamblinWreck92 retains his perfect record, now at 7-0! And he predicts us to win two more games, UNC and UVA.

Hanging around are @GTBJW and @Diseqc at 6-1. BJW predicts 3 more victories while Diseqc predicts none.

Good times!
 
OP updated for Game 8 results:

Our Game 8 win has increased the expected win total by 0.450. The total expected win value is now 6.390.

@RamblinWreck92 goes down! With the loss, his record is now at 7-1. And he predicts us to go 2-2 down the stretch.

The pack at 6-2 includes the following:

@KrazieJacket - predicts 2-2 finish
@GT18YJjr. - predicts 2-2 finish
@05GTCorndog - predicts 2-2 finish
@GTBJW - predicts 3-1 finish
@Diseqc - predicts 0-4 finish

@KrazieJacket and @05GTCorndog predict the same wins and losses as @RamblinWreck92 so they are eliminated.

@GT18YJjr. has the UNC and Miami games flipped from those guys, so he has a chance to tie it up as does @GTBJW.

With an 0-4 finish, @Diseqc will finish with the best record.

There's also a group of folks at 5-3 that predict a 4-0 finish. They could make things interesting!
 
I'll be at the UVA game with the kids. A win there should seal this for me - here's to 78 more runs and 40 more QB Keepers against the ööööing Cadavers!
 
OP updated for Game 9 results:

Our Game 9 win has increased the expected win total by 0.288. The total expected win value is now 6.678.

@RamblinWreck92 is still in the lead with a record of 8-1. Predicts only one more win over UVA.

The pack at 7-2 includes the following:

@KrazieJacket - predicts 1-2 finish
@05GTCorndog - predicts 1-2 finish
@GTBJW - predicts 2-1 finish

@KrazieJacket and @05GTCorndog predict the same wins and losses as @RamblinWreck92 so they are eliminated.

There's also a group of folks at 6-3 that predict a 3-0 finish. They could make things interesting![/QUOTE]
 
OP updated for Game 10 results:

Our Game 10 win has increased the expected win total by 0.481. The total expected win value is now 7.159.

We now have a tie atop the leaderboard with @RamblinWreck92 and @GTBJW at 8-2.

There’s now a rather large group at 7-3 that can hope for a multi-way tie with these two if GT wins our final two games.

If we beat UVA and lose to GT, RW92 and BJW will finish tied.

And if we lose the final two games, @Diseqc will join the two for a 3-way.

I’ll dust off the additional prediction measures we discussed in the preseason to break the ties.
 
OP updated for Game 11 results:

Our Game 11 win has increased the expected win total by 0.264. The total expected win value is now 7.423.

We continue to have a tie atop the leaderboard with @RamblinWreck92 and @GTBJW at 9-2.

And there's still a large group at 8-3 that can hope for a multi-way tie with these two when we beat UGA.

Updating the other scoring measures:

Current Leaders:

@ThisIsAtlanta System:

@GTBJW - 7.3
@MCRP09 - 7.2
@RamblinWreck92 - 7.1
and a group of folks at 7.0

@GoGATech System:

@RamblinWreck92 - 6.65
@GTBJW - 6.28
@KrazieJacket - 6.06


@GoGATech Raw Score:

@RamblinWreck92 - 9.5
@KrazieJacket - 9.2
@GTBJW - 9.1
 
OP updated for Game 12 results:

Our Game 12 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.423. The final win total is 7.000.

So here we are, the end of another season. I made a post in one of the threads that were wiped out by the server migration, so I'll try to replicate some details here.

Based on our collective probabilities, here's some tidbits on our performance:
  • Lost the two most difficult games on the schedule
  • Won the next three most difficult games on the schedule
  • Lost the 6th, 7th and 8th toughest games on the schedule
  • Won the four easiest games on the schedule
So, we won 3 of 5 toughest games, and 4 of 7 easiest games. Or, 3 of 6 of the hardest games and 4 of 6 of the easiest games. In all, that makes it an average to below average season. If we win all 3 of those middle games it would be an excellent season, if we win 2 of those it would be a great season, and even just 1 of those 3 it would be a good season. That's my takeaway, as I really feel that those middle 3 games on the relative difficulty scale are the ones that define our season. I'd like to see everyone's opinion on that.

And now the final results from the leaderboards!

The season has wrapped with a tie atop the leaderboard with @RamblinWreck92 and @GTBJW at 10-2.

Breakdowns by scoring systems:

@ThisIsAtlanta System:

@GTBJW - 8.1
@RamblinWreck92 - 7.9
@WreckRod - 7.9

@GoGATech System:

@RamblinWreck92 - 7.37
@GTBJW - 7.00
@WreckRod - 6.72

@GoGATech Raw Score:

@RamblinWreck92 - 10.4
@GTBJW - 10.0
@KrazieJacket - 9.9
@05GTCorndog - 9.9


Congrats to our top prognosticators!
 
:bigthumbup:
coit said:
OP updated for Game 12 results:

Our Game 12 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.423. The final win total is 7.000.

So here we are, the end of another season. I made a post in one of the threads that were wiped out by the server migration, so I'll try to replicate some details here.

Based on our collective probabilities, here's some tidbits on our performance:
  • Lost the two most difficult games on the schedule
  • Won the next three most difficult games on the schedule
  • Lost the 6th, 7th and 8th toughest games on the schedule
  • Won the four easiest games on the schedule
So, we won 3 of 5 toughest games, and 4 of 7 easiest games. Or, 3 of 6 of the hardest games and 4 of 6 of the easiest games. In all, that makes it an average to below average season. If we win all 3 of those middle games it would be an excellent season, if we win 2 of those it would be a great season, and even just 1 of those 3 it would be a good season. That's my takeaway, as I really feel that those middle 3 games on the relative difficulty scale are the ones that define our season. I'd like to see everyone's opinion on that.

And now the final results from the leaderboards!

The season has wrapped with a tie atop the leaderboard with @RamblinWreck92 and @GTBJW at 10-2.

Breakdowns by scoring systems:

@ThisIsAtlanta System:

@GTBJW - 8.1
@RamblinWreck92 - 7.9
@WreckRod - 7.9

@GoGATech System:

@RamblinWreck92 - 7.37
@GTBJW - 7.00
@WreckRod - 6.72

@GoGATech Raw Score:

@RamblinWreck92 - 10.4
@GTBJW - 10.0
@KrazieJacket - 9.9
@05GTCorndog - 9.9


Congrats to our top prognosticators!
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Hail to the King, baby!
:bowdown::bowrofl::bowdown::bowrofl:

Thanks for running this, coit. :bigthumbup:
 
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