2019 Preseason Probability Poll Results

18in32 said:
To hell with it – I guarantee we win out, beat UGA, beat Clemson in the rematch, and win the OB. Guarantee. And if I'm wrong, I'll refund your money.

You won't find a guarantee as strong as that anywhere else in the industry.
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OP updated for Game 5 results:

Our Game 5 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.642. The total expected win value is now 4.851.

And now, a summary of how you prognosticators are doing so far.

For overall W/L, the leaders have all gotten 3 correct so far. That's a very large group, but we should start to see some differentiation in the coming weeks.

Using the @ThisIsAtlanta Scoring, we have @atlanta jacket as the leader, with @ee8384 and @gtgtgt1 following close behind.

Using the @GoGATech Scoring, @atlanta jacket is still in the lead, with @ee8384 and @1990wspjacket following behind.

The GGT Raw Score (GGT/TIA) has @atlanta jacket in the lead, followed by @05GTCorndog and @JohnBoy in a 2-way tie for 2nd.

For those curious about how the scoring is calculated, see the spreadsheet in the OP and also this thread for details:

https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2019-pre-season-probability-poll-discussion-thread.101467/
 
OP updated for Game 6 results:

Our Game 6 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.653. The total expected win value is now 4.198.

We've lost to the bottom 3 teams ranked by probability, and 4 out of the bottom 5.
 
OP updated for Game 7 results:

Our Game 7 win has increased the expected win total by 0.530. The total expected win value is now 4.728.

Definitely a big win for the program, and a big shakeup in the prediction contest race. This win has taken @05GTCorndog out of what was looking to be a lock to win over @atlanta jacket.

For straight W/L predictions, @1990wspjacket is alone in the lead with a 5-2 record. @GCdaJuiceMan gets an honorable mention for being 1-6 at this point, with his only correct prediction being USF.

Using the @ThisIsAtlanta Scoring, @atlanta jacket holds a narrow lead over @1990wspjacket.

Using the @GoGATech Scoring, @1990wspjacket has taken over the lead.
 
coit said:
OP updated for Game 7 results:

Our Game 7 win has increased the expected win total by 0.530. The total expected win value is now 4.728.

Definitely a big win for the program, and a big shakeup in the prediction contest race. This win has taken @05GTCorndog out of what was looking to be a lock to win over @atlanta jacket.

For straight W/L predictions, @1990wspjacket is alone in the lead with a 5-2 record. @GCdaJuiceMan gets an honorable mention for being 1-6 at this point, with his only correct prediction being USF.

Using the @ThisIsAtlanta Scoring, @atlanta jacket holds a narrow lead over @1990wspjacket.

Using the @GoGATech Scoring, @1990wspjacket has taken over the lead.
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Is there a place I can see what you are talking about? Rankings or something? I'm confused
 
05GTCorndog said:
Is there a place I can see what you are talking about? Rankings or something? I'm confused
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Look at the spreadsheet embedded in the OP, or for easier viewing, click the link above it. On the 2nd tab are the standings. Scroll down the page to see the scoring for the different scoring systems.
 
coit said:
OP updated for Game 7 results:

Our Game 7 win has increased the expected win total by 0.530. The total expected win value is now 4.728.

Definitely a big win for the program, and a big shakeup in the prediction contest race. This win has taken @05GTCorndog out of what was looking to be a lock to win over @atlanta jacket.

For straight W/L predictions, @1990wspjacket is alone in the lead with a 5-2 record. @GCdaJuiceMan gets an honorable mention for being 1-6 at this point, with his only correct prediction being USF.

Using the @ThisIsAtlanta Scoring, @atlanta jacket holds a narrow lead over @1990wspjacket.

Using the @GoGATech Scoring, @1990wspjacket has taken over the lead.
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OP updated for Game 8 results:

Our Game 8 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.635. The total expected win value is now 4.093.

For straight W/L predictions, we have a 3-way tie between @05GTCorndog, @1990wspjacket, and @atlanta jacket with a 5-3 record.

Using the @ThisIsAtlanta Scoring, @atlanta jacket still holds a narrow lead over @1990wspjacket.

Using the @GoGATech Scoring, @atlanta jacket has taken the lead back from @1990wspjacket.

In other news, we have now lost 5 of our 6 easiest games as determined by the probability polling, with our lone victory in that grouping being USF. Additionally, we are now looking at a stretch of playing 4 of our toughest 6 games to close out the season.
 
coit said:
OP updated for Game 8 results:

Our Game 8 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.635. The total expected win value is now 4.093.

For straight W/L predictions, we have a 3-way tie between @05GTCorndog, @1990wspjacket, and @atlanta jacket with a 5-3 record.

Using the @ThisIsAtlanta Scoring, @atlanta jacket still holds a narrow lead over @1990wspjacket.

Using the @GoGATech Scoring, @atlanta jacket has taken the lead back from @1990wspjacket.

In other news, we have now lost 5 of our 6 easiest games as determined by the probability polling, with our lone victory in that grouping being USF. Additionally, we are now looking at a stretch of playing 4 of our toughest 6 games to close out the season.
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great analysis overall in this thread!

Thank you!

I'll vote next year :)
 
OP updated for Game 9 results:

Our Game 9 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.528. The total expected win value is now 3.565.

For straight W/L predictions, we still have a 3-way tie between @05GTCorndog, @1990wspjacket, and @atlanta jacket with a 6-3 record.

Using the @ThisIsAtlanta Scoring, @atlanta jacket and @1990wspjacket are now tied, with @Chattanooga Jacket in 3rd.

Using the @GoGATech Scoring, @1990wspjacket has taken the lead back from @atlanta jacket in a back-and-forth battle.
 
OP updated for Game 10 results:

Our Game 10 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.627. The total expected win value is now 2.938.

For straight W/L predictions, @05GTCorndog has taken the lead with a 7-3 record, and will cruise to victory only if GT loses out. @1990wspjacket, @atlanta jacket, @Chattanooga Jacket and @gtnap are close behind with 6-4 records. aj, cj and gtnap are locked out due to both predicting losses to finish. @1990wspjacket can move into a two way tie for 2nd if we beat the Dwags. So, congrats to corndog I guess!

Using the @ThisIsAtlanta Scoring, @Chattanooga Jacket has jumped into 1st place, with @atlanta jacket and @1990wspjacket tied for 2nd. @05GTCorndog is very close behind in 4th.

Using the @GoGATech Scoring, @1990wspjacket retains the lead, with @ChattanoogaJacket and @atlanta jacket close behind, and again, @05GTCorndog in 4th.

With just two games to go, @05GTCorndog has a path to sweep the awards. However, @Chattanooga Jacket is looking very strong to win one if not both of the TIA and GGT categories.
 
OP updated for Game 11 results:

Our Game 11 win has increased the expected win total by 0.433. The total expected win value is now 3.371.

At this point in the season, it seems appropriate to reflect on our preseason prediction as compared to reality. In the pre-season polls, we estimated 6.9 wins. So, we are going to be well below that total at 3 or 4 wins. Let's see how that compares to previous seasons:

2018 - Prediction 7.5 wins / Actual 7 wins = -0.5
2017 - Prediction 6.9 wins / Actual 5 wins = -1.9
2016 - Prediction 7.3 wins / Actual 8 wins = +0.7
2015 - Prediction 8.7 wins / Actual 3 wins = -5.7
2014 - Prediction 8.0 wins / Actual 10 wins = +2.0

So, this season is second to the 2015 season in terms of excessive optimism among the voters. I think one interesting parallel to the 2015 season and this season is that in both seasons, we were very short-handed in personnel due to injuries and/or attrition.


For straight W/L predictions, @05GTCorndog retains the lead with a 7-4 record. A large group trails behind at 6-5, with several having a chance to tie with a victory over the Dwags.

Using the @ThisIsAtlanta Scoring, @Chattanooga Jacket retains 1st place, with @atlanta jacket and @1990wspjacket still tied for 2nd. @05GTCorndog and @ee8384 are very close behind in 4th.

Using the @GoGATech Scoring, @1990wspjacket retains the lead, with @05GTCorndog only slightly behind in 2nd.

With just one game to go, @05GTCorndog will sweep the awards if the Dwags win. If GT wins, there will be a large tie for overall prediction record, and @1990wspjacket will win the TIA and GGT calculations.
 
A little delayed, due primarily to the UGA sacrificial bans and then holidays, but in the better late than never category, I bring you the final summary of this season's PPP challenge.

In looking back to the OP, it is interesting that our 3 victories were equally spread out among the strength of our schedule, and that we lost the easiest 3 predicted games on our schedule. Otherwise, not much to glean from these results.

On the contest front, as predicted prior to the UGA game, @05GTCorndog has swept the Overall W/L, TIA Scoring and GoGATech Modified Scoring. @Chattanooga Jacket tied with him on the TIA Scoring, but fell short in the other categories.

Interestingly enough, @05GTCorndog also was the only predictor to pick us to win 3 games. Of those, the USF game was the only one he got correct.

So, join me in congratulating the dog made of corn as the 2019 season PPP champion! Thanks to all for playing, and we'll see you at the polls in just 7 short months.
 
Corndog has superior football knowledge than the rest of ST.

In other breaking news, water is wet.
 
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