2020 Recruiting

Xihix said:
I've been out of the loop for the past few months with work and school.

How the öööö do we have a top 15 class?
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Flywheel said:
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Well, the honest answer is that we really don't have a top 15 class, we are just ahead of the game on numbers right now. If you look at average player rating on 247, we're probably looking closer to 25, which is still an unbelievable accomplishment in year one. We are still in on a number of high rated prospects though, and we have some upside chance to finish in the 15-20 range.
 
txsting said:
Well, the honest answer is that we really don't have a top 15 class, we are just ahead of the game on numbers right now. If you look at average player rating on 247, we're probably looking closer to 25, which is still an unbelievable accomplishment in year one. We are still in on a number of high rated prospects though, and we have some upside chance to finish in the 15-20 range.
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Apparently we could sign 45 recruits this year ! Everyone wants to be on our team. We will have to be creative in how we deal with the NCAA. :bowrofl:
 
txsting said:
Well, the honest answer is that we really don't have a top 15 class, we are just ahead of the game on numbers right now. If you look at average player rating on 247, we're probably looking closer to 25, which is still an unbelievable accomplishment in year one. We are still in on a number of high rated prospects though, and we have some upside chance to finish in the 15-20 range.
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Why do people keep repeating this?

We’re not miles ahead as far as number of commits compared to those we’re similarly ranked. This is nonsense.

Lets stop repeating this lie.

https://n.rivals.com/team_rankings/2020/all-teams/Football
 
ElCidBUZZingFAN said:
Why do people keep repeating this?

We’re not miles ahead as far as number of commits compared to those we’re similarly ranked. This is nonsense.

Lets stop repeating this lie.

https://n.rivals.com/team_rankings/2020/all-teams/Football
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I wasn't stating an opinion, i was stating a quantifiable fact.

When and if the star rating juggle ends up with our class jumping a bunch of other schools in avg. rating, then the new fact may happen to be a top 15 recruiting class. But, as it stands today, I say it's about 25, which is actually me being optimistic that the unranked guys get solid rankings. Today's factual numbers say the ranking is 32. That part is not really arguable. You can say it's going to be a top 15 class, but then you would be speculating on things that have not yet happened.
 
And on Rivals it's actually worse, we're #53 by average rating as it stands today. Sure we have similar numbers to all the teams ranked ahead of us, but we have almost twice the recruits of many of those schools ranked below.

I would say the 247 ratings are more useful for class comparisons, because all Rivals knows is 2, 3, 4, and 5 stars. The rating steps are not granular enough. 247 has a rating system which appears to take into account a lot of different information, including offer lists and compiling that into a 4 digit rating number. So we are helped (and rightly so) by having a lot of commits that are really "high 3 stars", which gets you zero extra credit on Rivals.
 
Flywheel said:
OMG ur rite. Good thing this is football and not Mario Kart.
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I do not know mario kart. I am just sharing the math behind the point that part of our current spot on the table is partly due to quantity. It is a real good "problem" to have, but last time I mentioned we were filling up early and many players who will want to come here will get left out I got big cried.

I dont follow close enough to know exactly how that points column is calculated. I know most every 3 star we have is a high 3 star with offers from multiple teams that always finish in the top 25. So I have no concerns. The players we have landed are elite prospects that have me beyond ecstatic.

A lot of people keep saying "reevaluation" will matter but I doubt that. It doesnt make sense on their business model to do much of that.

But those are just my opinions.
 
I will say one more thing....the actual recruit count does come into play at some point. Certainly we have a better class than TCU right now even thought they have a better average rating. They only have 2 commits. Some where you have to draw the line, and that will always be subjective.

Another example: South Carolina, 5 commits, 3.6 average on Rivals. (we are 3.0 on Rivals). Is that a better class? It might be, but it depends on whether they can keep that sort of pace, or they start to accept lowly rated reaches to fill out the class. There are a bunch of other classes like that currently (Texas, A&M, Stanford, Michigan, Oregon, Oklahoma) that are historically likely to pass us when all the hay is in the barn.

When it's all said and done, the average rating is the best measure IMO. And I would speculate we're on track to have a great, top 25 class. But the myopic view that we're a top 15 class because "golly there it is on a list" is excessively gold-colored if you really understand what is going on and get a feel for the data.
 
txsting said:
I wasn't stating an opinion, i was stating a quantifiable fact.

When and if the star rating juggle ends up with our class jumping a bunch of other schools in avg. rating, then the new fact may happen to be a top 15 recruiting class. But, as it stands today, I say it's about 25, which is actually me being optimistic that the unranked guys get solid rankings. Today's factual numbers say the ranking is 32. That part is not really arguable. You can say it's going to be a top 15 class, but then you would be speculating on things that have not yet happened.
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Predicting that schools behind us will move ahead of us after they get more commits is also speculating on things that haven't happened yet. We don't know how many elite players we will land in the next several months, and the same goes for everybody else. It's basically all speculation at this point. What's not speculation is that a number of high profile players have either committed to us already or seem to be indicating a high level of interest on social media. As you say, we're on track to have a great class.
 
gtfan088 said:
Predicting that schools behind us will move ahead of us after they get more commits is also speculating on things that haven't happened yet. We don't know how many elite players we will land in the next several months, and the same goes for everybody else. It's basically all speculation at this point. What's not speculation is that a number of high profile players have either committed to us already or seem to be indicating a high level of interest on social media. As you say, we're on track to have a great class.
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Yeah, I agree with your point. But it's not hard to say that even if Texas (or the other schools I mentioned) do poorly and just grab 6 more low 3 star players, they will be ahead of us on any list or any sort that you want to come up with, once we reach even numbers. It hasn't happened yet, but it's not exactly a huge reach. That will cause us to slip a few spots, but I think we have some more good news coming as well.

I think it's really unlikely that we fall out of the top 25 given what we have going on right now. 15 may be the ceiling. Two or three classes like that and we will be competing strongly with literally everyone on our schedule. Great time to be a jacket!
 
Suppose we use the 2007 class as a baseline. That class (according to Scout/247) ended up ranked 15th in the country, had 22 total signees, and included 6 players rated four stars. The earliest any of those 4 star players committed were Nick Claytor and Jonathan Dwyer on 8/31/06.

The point is that there's a long way to go. I think this staff's best work is ahead. Would not be surprised to see us end up in the top 15. These guys clearly know what they're doing.
 
bonham said:
Suppose we use the 2007 class as a baseline. That class (according to Scout/247) ended up ranked 15th in the country, had 22 total signees, and included 6 players rated four stars. The earliest any of those 4 star players committed were Nick Claytor and Jonathan Dwyer on 8/31/06.

The point is that there's a long way to go. I think this staff's best work is ahead. Would not be surprised to see us end up in the top 15. These guys clearly know what they're doing.
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Only 5 or 6 of the 2020 5* players are currently committed. Not saying any will commit to us, but they are still out there. I guarantee our staff is in contact with a few
 
A couple of points based on the discussion.

1) While class rating is important, depth on the lines is something we’ve struggled with forever. It doesn’t matter what the overall rating is if you’re not bringing in depth on the trenches. So if CGC brings in classes that really balance the roster, that’ll be worth more than just final class ranking.

2) A top 25 class in year 1 seemed like a pipe dream a couple months ago, so keep it in perspective.
 
Can anyone post a list of the kids we have a chance with? I looked at one of the prospects list and didn’t see a lot of guys that were considering tech.
 
txsting said:
I wasn't stating an opinion, i was stating a quantifiable fact.

When and if the star rating juggle ends up with our class jumping a bunch of other schools in avg. rating, then the new fact may happen to be a top 15 recruiting class. But, as it stands today, I say it's about 25, which is actually me being optimistic that the unranked guys get solid rankings. Today's factual numbers say the ranking is 32. That part is not really arguable. You can say it's going to be a top 15 class, but then you would be speculating on things that have not yet happened.
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And that would apply to every school, no?
 
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