2022 Pre-Season Probability Poll Discussion Thread

coit

coit

Persecuted for his beliefs
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
89,402
It is that time of year, sports fans. Time for the 2022 PPP!

The season is just about 6 weeks away, and apathy couldn't be higher. As in past years (other than 2020), I will be tracking everyone's performance through the season and handing out kudos at the end for top performers, so be sure to vote in every poll if you want to participate in that.

Links to each week's poll will be added here as each game's poll is released:

Game 01 - Clemson - Aug 1
Game 02 - Western Carolina - Aug 5
Game 03 - Ole Miss - Aug 7
Game 04 - UCF - Aug 10
Game 05 - Pitt - Aug 12
Game 06 - Duke - Aug 14
Game 07 - Virginia - Aug 16
Game 08 - Florida State - Aug 18
Game 09 - Virginia Tech - Aug 20
Game 10 - Miami - Aug 22
Game 11 - UNC - Aug 24
Game 12 - UGA - Aug 26

---------------

In previous seasons we've developed some scoring systems that attempt to incentivize picks that are close to the actual result. We have taken to calling these the TIAScore and the GGTScore weighting factors. These systems are described below.

The @ThisIsAtlanta / @GoGATech Scoring Systems

TIA Score Weighting:

For a Win, your score equals your win probability.
For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.
  • If we win a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.9
  • If we lose a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.1
  • If we lose a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.9
  • If we win a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.1
This rewards those who realistically vote low probabilities for the games we end up losing and those who vote high probabilities for the games we end up winning.


GoGATech / 18in32 Scoring Modification:

Score starts with the TIA scoring described above. Each game is given a result value according to the following index, which is based on the point spread of the final score:
  • 0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) win
  • 0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) win
  • 0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) win
  • 0.1 = TD (>3 pt) win
  • 0.0 = win or loss by < 3 pts
  • -0.1 = TD (>3 pt) loss
  • -0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) loss
  • -0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) loss
  • -0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) loss
The modified score is calculated by multiplying the TIA score by 1 minus the absolute value of each vote probability minus 0.5 minus the game result value above.

GGTScore = TIAScore * (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

This rewards vote probabilities that are closer to final outcome by giving them a higher weight than results that are further from the actual final outcome.

The final result of these two weighting systems produces a score that reasonably reflects how close to the actual result a voter's predictions are on a game by game and seasonal basis.

If you'd like to reminisce about past polls, links are below.

2021 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2021-preseason-probability-poll-results.108425/
2019 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2019-preseason-probability-poll-results.101870/
2018 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2018-preseason-probability-poll-results.97791/
 
Last edited:
Waiting GIF - Waiting PrincessBride - Discover & Share GIFs
 
Clemson results are in:

2022 Probability: 0.278
ESPN Probability: 0.057
Diff: +0.221

And previous years:

2021 Probability: 0.234
2019 Probability: 0.230

I think this speaks more to the perception of Clemson being down this year than us being better, but I guess we will find out soon enough.
 
Last edited:
coit said:
Clemson results are in:

2022 Probability: 0.278

And previous years:

2021 Probability: 0.234
2019 Probability: 0.230

I think this speaks more to the perception of Clemson being down this year than us being better, but I guess we will find out soon enough.
Click to expand...
Making 2021 result respectable after 2020’s öööö show likely has a lot to do with it, too.
 
Western Carolina results:

2022 Probability: 0.764
ESPN Probability: 0.992
Diff: -0.228

And previous years:

2021 Probability: n/a
2019 Probability: n/a

Interesting tell here. Even if all of the 0.9 votes are counted as 1.0 votes, the results are only about 0.810, still well below the ESPN numbers.
 
Last edited:
Ole Miss results:

2022 Probability: 0.301
ESPN Probability: 0.227
Diff: +0.074

And previous years:

2021 Probability: n/a
2019 Probability: n/a
 
Last edited:
coit said:
Ole Miss results:

2022 Probability: 0.301

And previous years:

2021 Probability: n/a
2019 Probability: n/a
Click to expand...
Thank you for doing this!
something that you might want to consider in the future could be to plan the rollout so that all of the polls are open at same time for as long as is practical.i noticed some participation rolloff since the first one.
i could do 12 polls in less that 30 minutes and have already spent a lot more time than that just looking for them.
 
BuzzinWreck78 said:
Thank you for doing this!
something that you might want to consider in the future could be to plan the rollout so that all of the polls are open at same time for as long as is practical.i noticed some participation rolloff since the first one.
i could do 12 polls in less that 30 minutes and have already spent a lot more time than that just looking for them.
Click to expand...

Each poll has a link to the game before and game after. The first post in this thread has a publishing schedule with links to all games. I kinda like rolling them out over the month before the season starts. Builds suspense.
 
UCF results:

2022 Probability: 0.411
ESPN Probability: 0.200
Diff: +0.211

And previous years:

2021 Probability: n/a
2019 Probability: n/a
 
Pitt results:

2022 Probability: 0.415
ESPN Probability: 0.145
Diff: +0.270

And previous years:

2021 Probability: 0.593
2019 Probability: 0.635

Definitely a downward trend on this one, year over year.
 
Duke results:

2022 Probability: 0.667
ESPN Probability: 0.772
Diff: -0.105

And previous years:

2021 Probability: 0.751
2019 Probability: 0.652

Results don't seem to match the trend of Duke's decline.
 
UVA results:

2022 Probability: 0.501
ESPN Probability: 0.507
Diff: -0.006

And previous years:

2021 Probability: 0.581
2019 Probability: 0.528
 
FSU results:

2022 Probability: 0.405
ESPN Probability: 0.179
Diff: +0.226

And previous years:

2021 Probability: n/a
2019 Probability: n/a
 
VT results:

2022 Probability: 0.491
ESPN Probability: 0.437
Diff: +0.054

And previous years:

2021 Probability: 0.605
2019 Probability: 0.627
 
Last edited:
I think this is my first full participation year. I think I’ve been fair to the team. Looks like i predict about 4 wins
 
Miami results:

2022 Probability: 0.363
ESPN Probability: 0.192
Diff: +0.171

And previous years:

2021 Probability: 0.440
2019 Probability: 0.470
 
UNC results:

2022 Probability: 0.438
ESPN Probability: 0.148
Diff: +0.290

And previous years:

2021 Probability: 0.415
2019 Probability: 0.642
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top