Virginia Tech would expand the viewers of SEC sports into a new market just like Texas A&M did. VT would be a great team for the SEC to add.
No question there. It would expand the SEC's footprint into Virginia. But what's that worth? There's only a little over 8.3 million people in Virginia. The last census data had about 2.58 people per household national average. Considering about 54% cable subscription penetration,(and that rate is falling quarter by quarter) that's about 1.74 million subscriptions. Of that, how many do you think would pay extra for SEC network? Lets go crazy and say 50% of ALL the cable subscribers in Virginia sign up, so that's 870,000 subscriptions. SECnw is pretty high on the rate, the highest I believe for a conference network, at about 0.66 per subscriber per month. So we're talking roughly 6.9 million in additional annual revenue, and that's probably a high estimate. Now, nobody really knows what the split is between ESPN and the SEC other than those privy to the contract, but it is believed to be a very generous 50/50. So that's an additional 3.45 million for the SEC in contract revenues from the SECnw. Currently, the SEC divided out roughly 462 million, or 33m per school. Add VT and that split falls to 30.8m, or 31.03m WITH the additional SECnw revenues that VT would project to bring to the table.
Obviously, that's not the only revenue stream to consider with the addition of a school to the SEC, but it's pretty much the only immediate, contracted, guarenteed impact. Does the addition of VT spur ESPN to renegotiate the current SEC contract up a significant amount? Maybe, maybe not, and if so, how much? VT is already on ESPN. VT fans in Virginny are already watching VT when they are on ESPN. How many more new subscribers in Virginia will they get just because VT is in the SEC vs the ACC? Will they be able to command significantly more advertiser revenue? Also, consider that VT will be on the ACCnw starting in 2019. ESPN has a vested interest to maximize new conference network subscribers in the region, will they get more new SECnw subscribers plus ACCnw subscibers with VT in the SEC and UVA in the ACC or more net subscibers with new ACCnw subscibers with VT and UVA in the ACC? That's a big "if". Would VT give the SEC more net bowl revenues or a higher probability of getting more teams in NY6 bowls? I doubt it.
All the above doesn't even consider that for the next 20 years ALL VT's media rights,
including revenue, for all home games would remain with the ACC regardless of the school's affiliation. Unless the revenue stream differences between the P5 conferences changes significantly, with the 20 year GOR the ACC currently holds, nobody from the ACC is going anywhere.
When the SEC added TAMu, that decision increased there footprint to 27 million people. A little different proposition than VT.
