Does GT have a "puncher's chance" this weekend?

gte490v said:
I suppose GT has a puncher's chance. ESPN's 32% chance of victory is probably right.

Based on what I see:
-Must win on turnovers. Very possible considering our secondary and their passing game / Pressley Harvin's ability to force muffed punts.
-Must improve offensive performance. Optimistically, T Oliver had ~50% of the snaps vs Citadel (compared to 30% vs USF) I heard we have been working a lot of passing reps for T Oliver and that will mean more snaps. Pessimistically, James Graham may be back and we're back to splitting QB snaps 3 ways.
-Offensive line needs to play over their heads.

Temple will need to do what they did to Maryland in order to win. Maryland was 5/21 on 3rd downs, 1/6 on 4th downs, 16/39 passing, 3.5 yards per rush.
Tech will need to do what Buffalo did to Temple in order to win. Temple threw 3 picks and lost a fumble (-2 TO ratio with one pick-6) and went 2/16 on 3rd down, 4/8 on 4th down. A Russo's QB rating was 12. It was 38-10 in the 4th quarter.

This may be Pressley Harvin's game to win, so it will be tough to watch unless you like punting.

Temple vs Maryland and Buffalo went for a combined 5/30 on 3rd down. QBR's of 39 & 12.
Tech vs USF and the Citadel went for a combined 8/23.

Temple's punter had 10 punts in the last two games averaging 33 yards with no touchbacks and none inside the 20, long of 45.
Harvin had 10 punts in the last two games averaging 41 yards with 1 touchback and 6 inside the 20, long of 55. 2 muffs, 1 turnover.
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The game of football is defense and kicking.
 
Allen Koholic said:
I was excited to go to this game, then I watched us öööö the bed last weekend. Being in Philly is bad enough. Being in Philly so I can watch Tech play like ass is not something I'm interested in.
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You should still go. How often are you gonna get a chance to have Tech come to your city? If they start playing like shit just cuss them out nonstop like anyone from Philly would.
 
coit said:
How many of those runs were with Oliver behind center and how many were Lucas trying to run for his life scrambling out of the pocket?
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Citadel
L Johnson at QB had 13 runs in 23 plays (56% run, I think 35% called run plays when you include the 3 sacks and 2 scrambles)
-3 sacks for -22 yards
-4 QB runs for 27 yards (2 were scrambles, an option keeper, and what I think was a QB draw for 1st down on 3rd and 8).
-1 was a jet sweep with T Oliver who was going to pitch it on a reverse, but it wasn't there and resulted in -1 yard.
-5 RB runs for 13 yards (2 J Howard, 2 J Mason, 1 D Smith)

T Oliver at QB had 19 runs in 22 plays (86% called run).
-11 QB runs for 94 yards (designed runs, option keepers)
-8 RB runs for 74 yards (8 J Mason)

*Note:
L Johnson was in for 6 3rd downs (3rd and 8, 3, 11, 3, 7, 8, and 8). Converted 2.
T Oliver was in for 2 3rd downs (3rd and 6 and 12) and a 4th down (4th and 1). Converted 1.
 
GoGATech said:
Well I'm 739 miles away. I think Harrisburg is a little closer.
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Again, spoken like a true fan. So, how far away is enough for a "true fan"? You can come let me know next time I make the trip down there. It's only about 730 miles though.
 
Akinji07 said:
You should still go. How often are you gonna get a chance to have Tech come to your city? If they start playing like öööö just cuss them out nonstop like anyone from Philly would.
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I don't live in Philly. I don't like going to Philly. The turnpike sucks, taking the train into that city sucks, Philly smells, the people are garbage. Temple is in a ghetto.
 
Defensively, the coaching strategy will be to win the game. Offensively, the coaching strategy will be to implement the new offensive scheme. We will see more than one QB and may need three takeaways to win.
 
Running is what our offense is better at, but no team can be successful if they are just one dimensional. If we can complete 9/15 passes and get 4 turnovers, the way Buffalo did, we should win. If we let them sell out to defend the run, and daring us to pass without an effective response, we will probably lose.
 
jacket67 said:
Running is what our offense is better at, but no team can be successful if they are just one dimensional. If we can complete 9/15 passes and get 4 turnovers, the way Buffalo did, we should win. If we let them sell out to defend the run, and daring us to pass without an effective response, we will probably lose.
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Citadel was pretty dang successful beating us with a 1 dimensional offense last game.
 
daBuzz said:
LOL, some of you guys act like you are so smart. You do realize we've been operating on a 71% run ratio, right?
Clemson
45 rushes
18 pass attempts

USF
49 rushes
21 pass attempts

Citadel
33 rushes
13 pass attempts

Total
52 pass attempts
127 rushes
----------------------
179 total plays
We run it 70.949% of the time.
Any other great insights you want to share?
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It's not as simple as just running the ball more. The problem is that we're putting ourselves in horrible down-and-distance situations by doing stupid shit on first and second down. With Oliver at QB, we're much more likely to end up in 3rd and 2 than 3rd and 15, even if he isn't able to throw downfield. We don't appear to be able to stretch anyone vertically right now, but we should be able to stretch horizontally with speed option (we have QBs who can read it and run it), bubble screens (easy throw and we have WRs who can block), and dive plays when we get the defense looking to the perimeter. I know we've tried that some, but we need to do it more.
 
JacketForLife said:
The area around Temple is dangerous.
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I worked with a kid who up and quit one day to go back to school and decided on Temple. We would joke that his daily bike sprint to and from school was his way of staying in peak shape. Really motivated him to ride as fast and as hard as possible.
 
johncu said:
It's not as simple as just running the ball more. The problem is that we're putting ourselves in horrible down-and-distance situations by doing stupid öööö on first and second down. With Oliver at QB, we're much more likely to end up in 3rd and 2 than 3rd and 15, even if he isn't able to throw downfield. We don't appear to be able to stretch anyone vertically right now, but we should be able to stretch horizontally with speed option (we have QBs who can read it and run it), bubble screens (easy throw and we have WRs who can block), and dive plays when we get the defense looking to the perimeter. I know we've tried that some, but we need to do it more.
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You DO realize we had Oliver in at QB in overtime and ran the ball twice...and were in 3rd and long situation...which is why they brought Lucas into the game to throw on 3rd down? The point is....if your QB can't or isn't likely to pass, the defense will put 8 in the box and it's difficult to do anything effective when that happens. Want to know why Oliver scored on the running play when our coach had called a timeout? Because they had 5 in the box and 6 dropped back in coverage, expecting us to throw the ball.

You guys are all focused on the absolute wrong problem. Who we play at QB is irrelevant...100% irrelevant...when a team like the Citadel is coming through our offensive line like someone left the barn door open. Hopefully, the bye week let us get some people healthy and we won't be playing 2 walk-ons on our OL this week. If that happens, then we can talk about who starts at QB (and FWIW, Temple struggled versus the run last week versus Buffalo so I wouldn't be surprised at all if the gameplan calls for Tobias to play most of the time and for us to run the ball).
 
daBuzz said:
You DO realize we had Oliver in at QB in overtime and ran the ball twice...and were in 3rd and long situation...which is why they brought Lucas into the game to throw on 3rd down? The point is....if your QB can't or isn't likely to pass, the defense will put 8 in the box and it's difficult to do anything effective when that happens. Want to know why Oliver scored on the running play when our coach had called a timeout? Because they had 5 in the box and 6 dropped back in coverage, expecting us to throw the ball.

You guys are all focused on the absolute wrong problem. Who we play at QB is irrelevant...100% irrelevant...when a team like the Citadel is coming through our offensive line like someone left the barn door open. Hopefully, the bye week let us get some people healthy and we won't be playing 2 walk-ons on our OL this week. If that happens, then we can talk about who starts at QB (and FWIW, Temple struggled versus the run last week versus Buffalo so I wouldn't be surprised at all if the gameplan calls for Tobias to play most of the time and for us to run the ball).
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A lot of what you say is true, but I disagree strongly with the bolded statement. Who is in at QB matters a lot. Oliver averaged 8.4 yards per carry against Citadel, and Johnson averaged 0.7. Both passed equally ineffectively. FWIW Jordan Mason averaged 7.1 ypc. Our OL butchered the 2nd down play in OT, but we never even would have been in that situation had we played Oliver all game. 8.4 yards per carry (and 7.1 for Mason) would have been enough to win the game. We rarely averaged that much under CPJ, but we scored a lot more points because we were efficient and called plays with down and distance in mind. We're not doing that right now.
 
johncu said:
A lot of what you say is true, but I disagree strongly with the bolded statement. Who is in at QB matters a lot. Oliver averaged 8.4 yards per carry against Citadel, and Johnson averaged 0.7. Both passed equally ineffectively. FWIW Jordan Mason averaged 7.1 ypc. Our OL butchered the 2nd down play in OT, but we never even would have been in that situation had we played Oliver all game. 8.4 yards per carry (and 7.1 for Mason) would have been enough to win the game. We rarely averaged that much under CPJ, but we scored a lot more points because we were efficient and called plays with down and distance in mind. We're not doing that right now.
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That MIGHT have been true but we don't know that for a fact. Oliver was most effective when they believed there was a pass threat and didn't have 8 in the box. I'm not convinced that, if we play Oliver the whole game as you say, that they wouldn't have just started putting 8 in the box on every play. Because if they had done that, we would not have averaged anywhere near 8.4 yards per carry for him or anyone else.

As I said, I hope Oliver plays this weekend and runs for 700 yards and we beat the living hell out of Temple. But I summarily dismiss this 'all we had to do' talk because it's never that easy.
It's just like when someone tells you that 'all you have to do is keep the ball on their end of the field and they can never score on you unless your goalie sucks" when you're coaching soccer. Well, duh...that does make sense but it isn't quite that easy as saying it.

I have a buddy who is a colonel in the Army and he loves to say, "Battles never go as planned because you must remember, the enemy gets a vote, too.". Same thing applies in football...they can counter a running team by stacking the box.
 
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