Has the CPJ era ‘Jumped The Shark?’

[RamblinWreck92]

Total offense and scoring is a terrible indicator for us, as our style of play limits possessions on both sides of the ball. Here are the efficiency rankings for our units under CPJ. Here's a link if you want to check our their methodology: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff

Offense:
2008 - 24 (new QB)
2009 - 2
2010 - 64 (new QB)
2011 - 16
2012 - 11
2013 - 39 (new QB)
2014 - 3 (new QB)
2015 - 88
2016 - 21
2017 - 19 (new QB)

Average: 28.7

Defense:
2008 - 71
2009 - 100
2010 - 84
2011 - 85
2012 - 74
2013 - 77
2014 - 70
2015 - 62
2016 - 94
2017 - 44

Average: 76.1

Here are Rivals recruiting rankings, for comparison.

Recruiting:
2008 - 49
2009 - 49
2010 - 43
2011 - 41
2012 - 56
2013 - 84
2014 - 47
2015 - 39
2016 - 67
2017 - 41 (so far)

Average: 51.6


I don't know how else you could interpret this. Our recruiting has been mediocre at best. With an average coach, you'd expect to perform roughly as well as your recruiting rankings, especially over a 10 year period. Our defense has been MUCH worse than that, and our offense has been MUCH better. Outside of 2015, which was disastrous from an injury standpoint, and 2010, when our 4 best players jumped to the NFL and then our QB broke his arm, our offense has been unbelievably consistent. Our defense has been absolutely pathetic, although it appears to have improved somewhat under Roof.

Our offense is not perfect, but I would argue that the majority of our offensive woes are talent-related (can't block a good DL, QB can't pass, WR's can't separate, etc.) and not scheme-related. That doesn't mean the scheme or playcalling is without fault (this weekend was not very good, IMO), but it just seems so obvious to me that it is the last "problem" we should be focusing on. If I was a CPJ hater, I would be railing on his inability to field a competent defense or recruit elite talent, not his offense that has been top 3 in the ACC almost every single year.

We are in agreement re:Recruiting. I don't think we agree as to why (at least partially) we struggle there. I'd guess you blame it mostly on academics. I think the scheme seriously hampers recruiting as well.

I don't know about your efficiency stats. I only know that time and time again, this O struggles against equal or greater foes. It's anomaly when we DON'T struggle. 200ish yds rushing vs UVA isn't about the number of possessions, nor were similar results vs Miami. These performances are repeated more often than not in our annual clashes with the so-called Big 4.

A scheme that, by its nature, limits its possessions and its scoring, combined with a defense that often struggles to stop offenses, isn't a great scheme.

Our OFD rank is 83. Which means we are 83rd in the country in Offensive Drives that end with a TD or First Down. Which doesn't help our Defense. Too many 3 & outs!

 

[gtzulu]

thats piss poor

get paid 2.5M per year, don't be a öööö ass in the press conference

I agree, just rude. But the job is pretty unrelenting this time of year & we've had some incredibly frustrating losses. Hard to judge not being in his shoes. Most coaches lose their cool from time to time, like Jimbo & the fan this year

 

[WracerX]

thats piss poor

get paid 2.5M per year, don't be a öööö ass in the press conference

Some guys are like that. CPJ, Leach, and Dabo get pissy when the team performs poorly. Add in some stupid questions and this is what you get. Saban is an ass win or lose. Richt does seem pissed even. Different strokes.

 

[johncu]

We are in agreement re:Recruiting. I don't think we agree as to why (at least partially) we struggle there. I'd guess you blame it mostly on academics. I think the scheme seriously hampers recruiting as well.

I don't know about your efficiency stats. I only know that time and time again, this O struggles against equal or greater foes. It's anomaly when we DON'T struggle.

I don't disagree on the scheme affecting recruiting. It if most definitely a factor, although I believe it is one that we could overcome with a strong recruiting staff.

I disagree 100% with your second point. It just is flat out not true, and the stats do not bear you out. Total offense is irrelevant, and your 13-26 stat is too when defensive struggles are by far the biggest reason we lost many of those games. Read the methodology on those efficiency ratings. Our offense has been extremely good, and that includes 4 games every year against the Big 4 you reference.

If you want to point to the last 3 Clemson game as an example of our offense looking terrible, I won't argue with you there. Their D owns us, period. I would just argue that the problem is talent, not scheme. And that is still on the coaching staff.

 

[RamblinWreck92]

I don't disagree on the scheme affecting recruiting. It if most definitely a factor, although I believe it is one that we could overcome with a strong recruiting staff.

I disagree 100% with your second point. It just is flat out not true, and the stats do not bear you out. Total offense is irrelevant, and your 13-26 stat is too when defensive struggles are by far the biggest reason we lost many of those games. Read the methodology on those efficiency ratings. Our offense has been extremely good, and that includes 4 games every year against the Big 4 you reference.

If you want to point to the last 3 Clemson game as an example of our offense looking terrible, I won't argue with you there. Their D owns us, period. I would just argue that the problem is talent, not scheme. And that is still on the coaching staff.

How is a 13-26 W-L record against the 4 irrelevant? It's not, especially when you take into account that the Miami and VPI teams we've lost to haven't been exactly world beaters. These aren't the Jimmy Johnson Canes nor the Vick Chokies.

Our offense is poor more often than not when we play those 4 teams, not that the D is much better. But the O is supposed to be our Equalizer and a 13-26 record shows that's not the case, especially when you look at the offensive eggs we've laid against VPI and Clemson, as well as a couple of awful mutt teams.

I can't look at our offensive performances at Miami and UVA this year and even begin to call them "extremely good". "Extremely good" is Miss St. Orange Bowl type performances or the wins in Athens, or those long-ago days when we used to defeat Clemson. Not barely-200-yds-rushing.

 

[gtzulu]

How is a 13-26 W-L record against the 4 irrelevant? It's not, especially when you take into account that the Miami and VPI teams we've lost to haven't been exactly world beaters. These aren't the Jimmy Johnson Canes nor the Vick Chokies.

We've only had one QB who was both an accurate passer and a good runner: Justin Thomas.

Big 4 in JT era:
Clemson: 1-2
Miami: 1-2
VT: 2-1
UGA: 2-1
Total: 6-6

Looks pretty good to me. Add in FSU if you want, 7-7. (Not to mention 3 of those 7 losses were to either the national champions, the national championship runner-up, or the undefeated defending national champions with a Heisman QB!)

So perhaps like any other college football offense we need a good QB to be successful. But unlike other offenses we can win with a QB who wouldn't have been a QB elsewhere. That's an equalizer.

If not for a fluke helmet bounce we would be 1-1 this year against Big 4 teams with a QB who falls into that category of QBs who wouldn't have been QB elsewhere.

Recent years' performance against Big 4 strongly supports Paul Johnson. If you're breaking even playing all of them, that means you're just as good as them

 

[stingmeyall]

We've only had one QB who was both an accurate passer and a good runner: Justin Thomas.

Big 4 in JT era:
Clemson: 1-2
Miami: 1-2
VT: 2-1
UGA: 2-1
Total: 6-6

Looks pretty good to me. Add in FSU if you want, 7-7. (Not to mention 3 of those 7 losses were to either the national champions, the national championship runner-up, or the undefeated defending national champions with a Heisman QB!)

So perhaps like any other college football offense we need a good QB to be successful. But unlike other offenses we can win with a QB who wouldn't have been a QB elsewhere. That's an equalizer.

If not for a fluke helmet bounce we would be 1-1 this year against Big 4 teams with a QB who falls into that category of QBs who wouldn't have been QB elsewhere.

Recent years' performance against Big 4 strongly supports Paul Johnson. If you're breaking even playing all of them, that means you're just as good as them

Justin was a playmaker at QB but I think one would be hard pressed to call him an accurate passer. Did he ever have a season where he completed over 50% of his passes. That is the least % that would be considered acceptable as accurate. TM had been completing over 50% until the last 2 games and I would argue that field conditions and OL blocking, along with low percentage pass play calls, contributed to those numbers being detrimentally affected. I think TM will be fine. He gives us the best chance to bust a long run of any of the QB's we could play. Of course I have no expectation for a turnaround for our D or kick off issues.

 

[Yukonwreck]

We've only had one QB who was both an accurate passer and a good runner: Justin Thomas.

Big 4 in JT era:
Clemson: 1-2
Miami: 1-2
VT: 2-1
UGA: 2-1
Total: 6-6

Looks pretty good to me. Add in FSU if you want, 7-7. (Not to mention 3 of those 7 losses were to either the national champions, the national championship runner-up, or the undefeated defending national champions with a Heisman QB!)

So perhaps like any other college football offense we need a good QB to be successful. But unlike other offenses we can win with a QB who wouldn't have been a QB elsewhere. That's an equalizer.

If not for a fluke helmet bounce we would be 1-1 this year against Big 4 teams with a QB who falls into that category of QBs who wouldn't have been QB elsewhere.

Recent years' performance against Big 4 strongly supports Paul Johnson. If you're breaking even playing all of them, that means you're just as good as them

Justin Thomas falls into the category of wouldn't have played quarterback elsewhere. Your 6-6 needs an asterisk. A win against Clemson with Deshaun Watson out and 2 pick-six from Cole Stoudt, and our offense was anemic. A win against VPI in which Justin didn't play. A win against Miami when Al Golden was on his way out. I get your point, and it is a good one---except about our performance against the Big 4 being good. Look at the full ten years, how many times we have gone 0-4 or 1-3. We went 4-0 only once. We struggle against those programs. It's undeniable. And now we are trending down against the "non Big Four" teams such as Duke, Virginia, Pittsburgh. Makes for a bad combination.

 

[WracerX]

Justin Thomas falls into the category of wouldn't have played quarterback elsewhere. Your 6-6 needs an asterisk. A win against Clemson with Deshaun Watson out and 2 pick-six from Cole Stoudt, and our offense was anemic. A win against VPI in which Justin didn't play. A win against Miami when Al Golden was on his way out. I get your point, and it is a good one---except about our performance against the Big 4 being good. Look at the full ten years, how many times we have gone 0-4 or 1-3. We went 4-0 only once. We struggle against those programs. It's undeniable. And now we are trending down against the "non Big Four" teams such as Duke, Virginia, Pittsburgh. Makes for a bad combination.

How many programs are going to go 4-0 against those programs over the same period? For a program like ours, 2-2 is reasonable.

 

[RamblinWreck92]

We've only had one QB who was both an accurate passer and a good runner: Justin Thomas.

Big 4 in JT era:
Clemson: 1-2
Miami: 1-2
VT: 2-1
UGA: 2-1
Total: 6-6

Looks pretty good to me. Add in FSU if you want, 7-7. (Not to mention 3 of those 7 losses were to either the national champions, the national championship runner-up, or the undefeated defending national champions with a Heisman QB!)

So perhaps like any other college football offense we need a good QB to be successful. But unlike other offenses we can win with a QB who wouldn't have been a QB elsewhere. That's an equalizer.

If not for a fluke helmet bounce we would be 1-1 this year against Big 4 teams with a QB who falls into that category of QBs who wouldn't have been QB elsewhere.

Recent years' performance against Big 4 strongly supports Paul Johnson. If you're breaking even playing all of them, that means you're just as good as them

The fact that, in 10 years, we've only once had the QB necessary to win in this system is an indictment. And if anyone thinks we're as good as Miami, VPI, Clemson, and the mutts because of the outlier season of 2014, there's not much need to continue the discussion any further.

If we don't win 2 of the next 3 games, we'll have the 2nd losing season in 3 years. This hasn't occurred since the early 90s of the L**** Error. That doesn't support Paul Johnson either.

 

[Yukonwreck]

How many programs are going to go 4-0 against those programs over the same period? For a program like ours, 2-2 is reasonable.

2-2 would be great. But in ten years we are 0-4 four times, 0-2 this year so far staring at 0-4, and 1-3 once.
Realistically, we could be talking about six full seasons with just one win against that group.

 

[RamblinWreck92]

How many programs are going to go 4-0 against those programs over the same period? For a program like ours, 2-2 is reasonable.

Agreed. How many times have we gone 2-2 against 'em? (I honestly don't know). I'd take a .500 record over a 0.333 record.

 

[JoeCakeEater]

Your 6-6 needs an asterisk. A win against Clemson with Deshaun Watson out and 2 pick-six from Cole Stoudt, and our offense was anemic. A win against VPI in which Justin didn't play. A win against Miami when Al Golden was on his way out.

Discounting wins to fit your agenda is total BS. You could say the VPI win is not his, but the other issues mentioned are "them" problems. If you wanted to follow this narrative then you should discount the entire 2015 season, when injuries piled up around JT that were totally beyond his control. He had no help that season.

...except about our performance against the Big 4 being good. Look at the full ten years, how many times we have gone 0-4 or 1-3. We went 4-0 only once. We struggle against those programs. It's undeniable.

Why do you think we call them the Big 4? If we were going 4-0 against them every year then we would be the Big 4. If we have a team that goes 4-0 against Clemson, Miami, VT and UGA then that team is likely a top 10 team and fringe CFP contender. Since 1960 we have finished as a top 10 caliber team how many times?? 3 maybe...one of which was just a few years ago under CPJ.

 

[gtzulu]

Your 6-6 needs an asterisk. A win against Clemson with Deshaun Watson out and 2 pick-six from Cole Stoudt, and our offense was anemic.

If you're not going to count the win against Cole Stoudt because it's anomalous, I'm not going to count the losses to Deshaun Watson--a Heisman finalist/runner-up, NFL QB, and national championship winner/runner-up--because they're anomalous. We're 5-4 against the Big 4 now over the previous 3 seasons.

To be at 0.500 with teams that all have several times our resources devoted to football, and lower entrance requirements + more majors for athletes, is incredible.

A win against VPI in which Justin didn't play. A win against Miami when Al Golden was on his way out. I get your point, and it is a good one---except about our performance against the Big 4 being good. Look at the full ten years, how many times we have gone 0-4 or 1-3. We went 4-0 only once. We struggle against those programs. It's undeniable.

If you only look at our performance against the Big 4 when they're at their best, it's unfair. It's also biased because when we beat a team, of course their season will be worse, because we gave them an extra loss.

If true dual-threat QBs is the missing ingredient, we have good depth at QB right now. We've got Lucas Johnson, who is tall and supposedly a good passer. Then Jay Jones who is elusive as hell and can throw the ball a mile. If Taquon gets his passing down, he can be as good as JT.

And now we are trending down against the "non Big Four" teams such as Duke, Virginia, Pittsburgh. Makes for a bad combination.

We're 3-1 against traditionally weak ACC teams this year...

 

[Yukonwreck]

Discounting wins to fit your agenda is total BS. You could say the VPI win is not his, but the other issues mentioned are "them" problems. If you wanted to follow this narrative then you should discount the entire 2015 season, when injuries piled up around JT that were totally beyond his control. He had no help that season.



Why do you think we call them the Big 4? If we were going 4-0 against them every year then we would be the Big 4. If we have a team that goes 4-0 against Clemson, Miami, VT and UGA then that team is likely a top 10 team and fringe CFP contender. Since 1960 we have finished as a top 10 caliber team how many times?? 3 maybe...one of which was just a few years ago under CPJ.

I didn't originate the term Big 4. We have gone 4-0 against the group one time in ten years in 2014. It was great. But we lose way more than we win against that group. I think the record is something like 13-26 with two to play. I have often said that an acceptable percentage against Georgia, given the advantages they have over us, would be win one out of every three. For the last six years we are right there. Maybe that's the reality against these four programs and we should be satisfied.
I wasn't discounting the wins, just adding an appropriate footnote. And I don't recall being 7-7 against FSU.

 

[gtzulu]

And I don't recall being 7-7 against FSU.

I meant if you include the FSU games in the JT era, and make a Big 5, we are 7-7 against the Big 5

 

[covingtonjacket]

Discounting wins to fit your agenda is total BS. You could say the VPI win is not his, but the other issues mentioned are "them" problems. If you wanted to follow this narrative then you should discount the entire 2015 season, when injuries piled up around JT that were totally beyond his control. He had no help that season.



Why do you think we call them the Big 4? If we were going 4-0 against them every year then we would be the Big 4. If we have a team that goes 4-0 against Clemson, Miami, VT and UGA then that team is likely a top 10 team and fringe CFP contender. Since 1960 we have finished as a top 10 caliber team how many times?? 3 maybe...one of which was just a few years ago under CPJ.

I simply think those who expect to win the vast majority of games against the big 4 need to be fans of a factory somewhere. I get as pissed as anyone after every loss, but that last sentence above is telling. We simply are not a consistent top 10-15 team which is what it would take to win a majority of games against the big 4. I am not as old as many on the board, but to my knowledge we have not been since Dodd. We need to push to better the program (money, attendance, etc.) always, but we also should be realistic. If we want to transform the program into that consistent winner, we are looking at a 10-20 year project even with cooperation from the Hill.

 

[WracerX]

So this redshirt senior class:
1-4 vs Miami is bad. We can do better than that.
2-2 vs VT. That is reasonable. We have 1 win by more than 1 score. 2 losses by less than a TD.
1-4 vs Clemson not bad considering Clemson has only lost to 1 unranked team in that span (I believe). Historically, par would have been 2-3 given three of those games were on the road.
2-2 vs UGa. That is good. 1 loss by a TD and 1 OT loss.

Oddly, and I think it makes the record feel worse, are the home losing streaks to VT and Uga.

So, the poor record against the Big 4 is really a poor record against Miami coupled with a peaking Clemson.

 

[BainbridgeJacket]

We're winless against teams that finish the season undefeated. Fire Paul Johnson!!

 

[WracerX]

We're winless against teams that finish the season undefeated. Fire Paul Johnson!!

No team that finished undefeated has beaten us the past 5 years.