So am I the only one that saw her punch first?
Self-defense, plain and simple.
It's just one angle and no audio, but the sequence I see is:
1) They make contact that the girl is not happy with. She tells him something which I assume is "give me some space."
2) The guy pushes through anyway making more contact the girl isn't happy with.
3) The girl starts to verbally engage - looks angry.
4) The guy puts hands on her to push her away. Tough to see who made contact first with the bottom cutoff though.
5) Girl tries to shake loose. Can't. Makes a move that looks like something between an attempt to hit him and an attempt to break his hold. If I had to guess it was an attempt to hit him though.
6) He responds with a fairly brutal strike to the head.
I guess a good lawyer could make self-defense argument, but I can't see jurors looking past the fact that he's a collegiate athlete using an unreasonable amount of force against a girl who never really initiated any contact (although it appears she tried to).
But at the end of the day, there's public video of you punching a female in the head because she wasn't happy with the way you crowded her at a bar. Tough to recover from. And FSU is not going to want to deal with this after 2 years of Jameis and the risk of FSU QB becoming synonymous with woman beater/raper.