Observations and Game Discussion

The Champ said:
Yea, our qb doesn’t throw great balls. So not the best spot to gamble on 4th and 1. The NFL percentage is ~18%. Doubt that accounts for PI. Also, height is less of a critical factor than the WR ability to get quick separation.

Most NFL teams have abandoned the jump ball on the goal line in favor of back shoulder throws and pick routes.

Calvin was actually incredibly good at the goal line fade. +50% success in the NFL. There’s an article out there if you Google around.
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I'm surprised we didn't roll out Sims. All he needs is a receiver to break free or a gap to squeeze thru. Instead we went for a low percentage pass where the height advantage was more than negated by our QBs inaccuracy throwing the ball.
 
JoeCakeEater said:
Great insights.

A lot of people bashing the 4th down decision. I don’t. I support going for it on 4th down at the one unless you’re tied or down by 3 or less. Then there are other cases where you can push the score form 1 score to 2 score game, etc. The play call was absolute trash, but the decision to go made sense to me. Worst case you leave them on the 1.

At this point we have clarity on what happened… we didn’t convert and they marched down the field on a 99.5 yard drive. The coach didn’t know all that in the moment.
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You don't need to see the future to know that being up 15 with a few minutes left is vastly, vastly better than a 50% chance of being up 19 or up 12.
 
AlabamaBuzz said:
I agree with the your last statement for sure, but really, we have a 6'7" receiver on a 6' guy. If Sims throws it like a jump ball instead of a Reggie pass out of bounds that no one can reach, I think it is a 70-30 he either comes down with the ball or gets the interference penalty. The PI would give us 4 more downs.

Hey asshat, stop talking trash about ex players, Reggie is the only qb in the last 15 years that could make that throw. Ever see the miracle in Clemson with Calvin. I haven’t seen anything from sims to suggest he’s better than Reggie.
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Let's not fool ourselves. Pitt had many opportunities to win this game. There were 2 INTs that they just dropped. One being a clear pick 6. It was one game. Let's see how we do in the next 3 games. If we have a 3-0 or 2-1 record, with these 3, I would call it a success. I do like that we found we our running game. I hope that continues.
 
Jmonty71 said:
Let's not fool ourselves. Pitt had many opportunities to win this game. There were 2 INTs that they just dropped. One being a clear pick 6. It was one game. Let's see how we do in the next 3 games. If we have a 3-0 or 2-1 record, with these 3, I would call it a success. I do like that we found we our running game. I hope that continues.
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We had many opportunities to win the game too.
 
Jmonty71 said:
Let's not fool ourselves. Pitt had many opportunities to win this game. There were 2 INTs that they just dropped. One being a clear pick 6. It was one game. Let's see how we do in the next 3 games. If we have a 3-0 or 2-1 record, with these 3, I would call it a success. I do like that we found we our running game. I hope that continues.
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So basically Pitt did what we have done in a lot of our games - lose winnable games from not making plays/lack of focus.

Tech was a focused team and made plays where it counted. We had our screwups too - the last two Pitt drives being awful defense. But we made plays like our entire offense pushing our RB for a first down or Sims and Hall breaking long runs when we needed them most. Or Charlie Thomas being a second half wrecking ball.
 
savbandjacket said:
So basically Pitt did what we have done in a lot of our games - lose winnable games from not making plays/lack of focus.

Tech was a focused team and made plays where it counted. We had our screwups too - the last two Pitt drives being awful defense. But we made plays like our entire offense pushing our RB for a first down or Sims and Hall breaking long runs when we needed them most. Or Charlie Thomas being a second half wrecking ball.
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We were focused and won the game. I am not sure we lacked that focus with Collins, but there seemed to be a different energy. Overall, I do call this more Pitt lost, than we won. However; we sure had our share of games, that we lost, versus the other team won. So, I have no issues, being on the receiving end of one of these games. I am just saying, one game isn't enough of a sample, to determine how good or bad Key, is. I think after the VT game, we'll have a much better idea. With that said, if we were to catch fire, the Coastal is weak enough to where we can compete.
 
Jmonty71 said:
We were focused and won the game. I am not sure we lacked that focus with Collins, but there seemed to be a different energy. Overall, I do call this more Pitt lost, than we won. However; we sure had our share of games, that we lost, versus the other team won. So, I have no issues, being on the receiving end of one of these games. I am just saying, one game isn't enough of a sample, to determine how good or bad Key, is. I think after the VT game, we'll have a much better idea. With that said, if we were to catch fire, the Coastal is weak enough to where we can compete.
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All it took was some combination of missing two field goals or a blocked punt for us to lose, which was very possible had Collins still been coaching. That’s only on special teams.

If we assume Collins stuck with Jeff’s arm instead of upping the running game after the half, which isn’t unreasonable given our abysmal rushing stats prior, that could’ve done it, too. Can only get so lucky before the picks actually get caught.

Who knows how he could have screwed up the defense. It seems like we got way more pressure against the QB than usual. The point is I think it’s more we played way better than we have been, rather than Pitt playing worse. We can speculate on why but everyone knows what’s changed since last week. Maybe it’s just a big coincidence.
 
I enjoyed watching ööööt commit back-to-back false starts on their own 1 after our stupid 4th down call that didn't work.

They looked like a Collins-coached team for a few minutes there.
 
I hated the 3rd down call at the goal more than the fade on 4th down. Sims is a good runner in the open field but is not strong and a sneak by him in that situation would be among my last choice.
 
Liberty said:
Nesbitt was a bad man and a tough MFer, a warrior. No offense but Sims is like the young kid that gets his lunch money taken every day compared to him.
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Nobody was tackling Nesbitt backwards. He was going forward every time.
 
I would bring in the Phommachanh kid and have him run it in. I am thinking that the coaches told Sims to stay in the game and it made him regress as a runner, but he has had lots of moments where if you stuck his head in there he'd get an easy first down. Instead he jukes and waggles and loses two yards. Anyway, I would never run Sims in goal line.

Also there are times we should be putting the QB under center and the red zone is one of them.
 
RaiderJacket said:
Dontae, more than likely, did not play because he took to social media to criticize or question the firing of Collins. Many younger people these days think they are in charge and throw tantrums if they don't get their way. Key will have to change the "culture" back to one of toughness and discipline for continued success. DS could have been out for other reasons but he did have one carry. I'm speculating on this.
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Dontae has also been banged up since the Western Carolina game. He only had 5 carries against Ole Miss and 7 against UCF. Key stated in his post game press conference that they game-planned for Hall to carry most of the load in the run game because of Pitt's physical front 7.
 
GTCrew said:
Coaches go for it on 4th and goal from the one because usually that is a high percentage play. However we had basically been stuffed twice on what I assume were our best goalline plays. Our odds of making it were probably well below 50%. The playcall, and the result, supports that assertion being correct.
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We only got stuffed once. Hall's run where he hit the pylon but then they reviewed and ruled him down on the 1 was on 2nd down. So we did the QB sneak on 3rd which IMO should have moved the ball to basically the 1 inch line but they re-spotted it just inside the 1 again. I would have gone for it on 4th down but I would have kept Sims under center, ran the sneak again and told him to stretch the ball over the top. He's 6'4" and athletic. All he had to do was break the plane with the ball. I understand not doing that on the 3rd down sneak for risk of fumbling, but when you do on 4th, you're either going to score or turn it over anyway.
 
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