OK, let's talk about the Offense

coit

coit

Persecuted for his beliefs
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We are halfway through the season, team has had time to settle in with the offense. Is this the type of drive chart that excites you?

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Five of first six drives were essentially 3 and outs, with the other one ending in an INT. Of the next 3 drives, one was nice sustained drive, and the other two we benefitted from starting essentially in the Red Zone. After that, two more 3 or 4 play drives and then the miracle in Miami.

And the BG game chart looks a whole lot like this one. Scary to be even saying that.

Team has a bye week and hopefully that will allow for some serious reevaluation of what they are trying to do on offense and some needed corrections in the running game.
 
Statistically, adjusting for the defenses we are facing, ESPN FPI has our offense rated as 35th best offense. I think that's a reasonable expectation for this year assuming it holds for the rest of the schedule.

www.espn.com

2023 Efficiencies College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2023 Efficiencies College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

fwiw, the defense and special teams are rated in the 60s...
 
When King has a little time, he is very effective, but too often he's scrambling a second after the snap, and the RBs usually can't get through the line of scrimmage. Both of these problems are the OL. The rest of the offense is actually doing a good job.
 
cyptomcat said:
Statistically, adjusting for the defenses we are facing, ESPN FPI has our offense rated as 35th best offense. I think that's a reasonable expectation for this year assuming it holds for the rest of the schedule.

www.espn.com

2023 Efficiencies College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2023 Efficiencies College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

fwiw, the defense and special teams are rated in the 60s...
Click to expand...

Any way of seeing the efficiencies itemized by game? I don't see it if it is there.
 
The running game has GOT to get better. While pass blocking is consistent, run blocking is horrid in my opinion. At the point of attach we're getting pushed back badly at the G positions. Success is not having your QB keep it and run when the pocket breaks down from over pursuing DLs and DTs. When we run successfully, then we can pass more consistently and have those 300-400+ yds per game in passing. We need Williams back at guard.
 
The only stats I really focus on are 3rd down conversion rate and turnovers.

For 3rd down conversions, We are close to 50% - only 20 or so teams are better. We have not been this good at converting 3rd downs since 2014.

Turnovers, not so good. We are ≈ 2 per game. Not since 2015 have we been this bad.

We have to get the TO per game down to one. You cannot win games if you give the other team two extra possessions per game - especially when our defense is less than where we want it.
 
We are an above average offense. Our LOS struggles against talented DLs and we are banged up currently so not playing our best.

Hope they figure a few things out and can get healthy and we should be fine.

Wish they were a top 10 offense with All Americans across the OL and a Heisman contender at QB but I’ll take what they are versus the abominations of the last 4 seasons.
 
00Burdell said:
For 3rd down conversions, We are close to 50% - only 20 or so teams are better. We have not been this good at converting 3rd downs since 2014.
Click to expand...

That's good input, I had not considered that we were doing that well relative to other teams. However, in looking at the last two games....

3rd Down Conversions​
​
vs BG: 2 of 8 (25%)​
vs Miami: 5 of 13 (38%)​

This is another data point that highlights issues we are seeing with the offense.
 
Miami defense was really good.

OL is still an issue on our side; we struggle to run the ball and HK usually has to get rid of it quick which limits our ability to attack down the field. We could really use a few bigger WRs on offense. I like the guys we have, but they are all pretty small.
 
It's better than it's been in a long long time, but give it time we got a lot of youth at WR and OL and a 1st year Playcaller I think it'll get better overtime
 
The Champ said:
Miami defense was really good.

OL is still an issue on our side; we struggle to run the ball and HK usually has to get rid of it quick which limits our ability to attack down the field. We could really use a few bigger WRs on offense. I like the guys we have, but they are all pretty small.
Click to expand...

Bowling Green’s defense was pretty good too, apparently.
 
coit said:
Bowling Green’s defense was pretty good too, apparently.
Click to expand...
Didnt watch against BG to be honest. But the box score tells me we were still able to throw it downfield, which has been the best part of the offense all year. Against Miami we only completed one pass more than 5 yards downfield until there were 22 seconds left.
 
They’ve struggled to run this season but refuse to stop trying. Maybe Key and Faulkner trying to push the OL to create better lanes, dunno.
 
coit said:
We are halfway through the season, team has had time to settle in with the offense. Is this the type of drive chart that excites you?

1696864167684.png



Five of first six drives were essentially 3 and outs, with the other one ending in an INT. Of the next 3 drives, one was nice sustained drive, and the other two we benefitted from starting essentially in the Red Zone. After that, two more 3 or 4 play drives and then the miracle in Miami.

And the BG game chart looks a whole lot like this one. Scary to be even saying that.

Team has a bye week and hopefully that will allow for some serious reevaluation of what they are trying to do on offense and some needed corrections in the running game.
Click to expand...
Doesn’t matter - beat the #17 team in the country on the road
 
anybody have stats on how many of our run plays get stuffed at LOS? rushing def main issue. luckily haynes arm has helped compensate. this probably affect our turnover margin as well. not sure if true, but seems like you have more turnovers from interceptions than fumbles, so if you're having to throw more than rush, will increase turnovers.
 
pickledickle25 said:
And yet they didn’t. 30.7 PPG this year so far, 17.2 PPG last year. Nearly double the output
Click to expand...

How many points we score against Bowling Green? Miami? Less than 30 in each.

There is a problem. If you want to choose to ignore it that’s cool, but there’s still a problem.
 
pickledickle25 said:
And yet they didn’t. 30.7 PPG this year so far, 17.2 PPG last year. Nearly double the output
Click to expand...
People will see what they want to see. The O is clearly far better than before. Yes, it has issues still, but it's clearly better.

The D, not so much, although they've had a couple of pretty good games (WFU and Miami).
 
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