Path to ACC Championship

C

Clifflives10

Flats Noob
Joined
Mar 10, 2011
Messages
558
Here's what I'm seeing. We're going to need a ton of help.
First assumption - We win out.

UVA loses to:
-GT

VT loses to:
-Miami

Pitt loses to:
-VT
-Wake Forest
-Miami

Miami loses to:
-GT

Duke loses to:
-Clemson

UNC = Eliminated


UPDATES:
GTWannaBee said:
EDIT: Ignore the below post. It is being covered in a new thread. Forgot to hit refresh before entering this thread to post.

So this week we're rooting for:

GT over the world (or UNC at least for this week)
-Line GT -6.0
UVA over Pitt
-Line UVA -7.5
BC over VT
-Line BC -2.0
Duke vs Miami - terrorists win either way

As long as the favored team wins in the ACC games, we're good.
Click to expand...

GTNUKE said:
I took a look at each of these games using the win probability from ESPN's Football Power Index. The good news, each game taken individually has a 50% chance or greater of happening, except for Miami @ GT (45%). On the surface, that looks promising as we would need 10 games to go a certain way and all would be considered probable except for one.

Here is each one:
UVA over Pitt 72%
GT over UNC 76%
BC over VT 50%
Clemson/Miami over Duke 99% (just Clemson is 95%, but add in Duke having to beat Miami as well and it jumps to 99%)
GT over Miami 45%
VT over Pitt 60%
GT over UVA 69%
Miami over VT 61%
VT over UVA 61%
Miami over Pitt 89%

The problem is once you calculate the odds of having all 10 fall the way we need (like a Vegas Parlay), the odds drop to about 2%.

If all 4 of the games we need this weekend (counting Miami over Duke) happen, then the odds of the remaining 6 get bumped up to a little over 6%.

Of course, after these 4 games this weekend, the win probabilities will change and if something doesn't happen we need to happen, there could be other scenarios that come into play.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
On another note, if we beat Georgia AND Clemson (I know, I know), would the committee every move a 4 loss GT team to #4?
 
Clifflives10 said:
On another note, if we beat Georgia AND Clemson (I know, I know), would the committee every move a 4 loss GT team to #4?
Click to expand...

Not over another conference’s winner with fewer losses. 5 conferences for 4 spots. Somebody gotta be left out.
 
cyptomcat said:
So, that Pitt loss really really hurts.

Oh well...
Click to expand...

Yeah, taking the scenarios above, and today’s results, Pitt is the one team that seemingly will just be out of reach if we were to run the table in the conference from here on out.
 
I'm a lot less worried about Pitt losing to VT than I am for VT to lose to Boston College. Looking a lot like VT going to win Coastal
 
gt2690b said:
Isn't there a three way tie scenario we can win
Click to expand...
No doubt, but the multi-team tie scenarios are very poorly written. Let's not look at those until we're a little closer to having to.
 
Lol.
I am Lol’ing at the fact that this is both hilarious because we suck but also because every scenario necessary is totally plausible. The coastal is so bad.

A better question than yours, if we win out and beat Clemson and win our NY6 bowl, can we still fire Paul? Please?
 
Dirty Jacket said:
Lol.
I am Lol’ing at the fact that this is both hilarious because we suck but also because every scenario necessary is totally plausible. The coastal is so bad.

A better question than yours, if we win out and beat Clemson and win our NY6 bowl, can we still fire Paul? Please?
Click to expand...

Firing a guy who wins the ACC would be instant 100 year sports-curse inducing behavior.
 
Stop. Bad for the conference. Let’s beat caveman, öööö heels, and thug U. Georgia will be a stretch but let’s see what happens. Go to a ho-hum bowl, start next year with good qbs, and a second year woody D
 
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