Path to ACC Championship

I’ve always liked Paul. I just also think the kids and rules have changed to the point that his time may be coming to a close. But I hope I am wrong and want him to have a very long career here and for us to be an option school forever.
 
GTCrew4b said:
I’ve always liked Paul. I just also think the kids and rules have changed to the point that his time may be coming to a close. But I hope I am wrong and want him to have a very long career here and for us to be an option school forever.
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That's funny, why do you hate yourself so badly?
 
EDIT: Ignore the below post. It is being covered in a new thread. Forgot to hit refresh before entering this thread to post.

So this week we're rooting for:

GT over the world (or UNC at least for this week)
-Line GT -6.0
Kentucky over UGA (no bearing on the ACC and no one should need to be reminded, but here's your reminder anyway)
-Line UGA -9.0
UVA over Pitt
-Line UVA -7.5
BC over VT
-Line BC -2.0
Duke vs Miami - terrorists win either way

As long as the favored team wins in the ACC games, we're good.
 
Clifflives10 said:
Here's what I'm seeing. We're going to need a ton of help.
First assumption - We win out.

UVA loses to:
-GT
-VT

VT loses to:
-Boston College
-Miami

Pitt loses to:
-VT
-UVA
-Miami

Miami loses to:
-GT

Duke loses to:
-Clemson

UNC (already eliminated 'technically').
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I took a look at each of these games using the win probability from ESPN's Football Power Index. The good news, each game taken individually has a 50% chance or greater of happening, except for Miami @ GT (45%). On the surface, that looks promising as we would need 10 games to go a certain way and all would be considered probable except for one.

Here is each one:
UVA over Pitt 72%
GT over UNC 76%
BC over VT 50%
Clemson/Miami over Duke 99% (just Clemson is 95%, but add in Duke having to beat Miami as well and it jumps to 99%)
GT over Miami 45%
VT over Pitt 60%
GT over UVA 69%
Miami over VT 61%
VT over UVA 61%
Miami over Pitt 89%

The problem is once you calculate the odds of having all 10 fall the way we need (like a Vegas Parlay), the odds drop to about 2%.

If all 4 of the games we need this weekend (counting Miami over Duke) happen, then the odds of the remaining 6 get bumped up to a little over 6%.

Of course, after these 4 games this weekend, the win probabilities will change and if something doesn't happen we need to happen, there could be other scenarios that come into play.
 
GTNUKE said:
I took a look at each of these games using the win probability from ESPN's Football Power Index. The good news, each game taken individually has a 50% chance or greater of happening, except for Miami @ GT (45%). On the surface, that looks promising as we would need 10 games to go a certain way and all would be considered probable except for one.

Here is each one:
UVA over Pitt 72%
GT over UNC 76%
BC over VT 50%
Clemson/Miami over Duke 99% (just Clemson is 95%, but add in Duke having to beat Miami as well and it jumps to 99%)
GT over Miami 45%
VT over Pitt 60%
GT over UVA 69%
Miami over VT 61%
VT over UVA 61%
Miami over Pitt 89%

The problem is once you calculate the odds of having all 10 fall the way we need (like a Vegas Parlay), the odds drop to about 2%.

If all 4 of the games we need this weekend (counting Miami over Duke) happen, then the odds of the remaining 6 get bumped up to a little over 6%.

Of course, after these 4 games this weekend, the win probabilities will change and if something doesn't happen we need to happen, there could be other scenarios that come into play.
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It feels like we're all learning something about the utility of quantifying guesses about future events.
 
The Coastal Division is the worst it’s ever been. Too bad we don’t have the 2014 squad playing against this type of joke competition this year.
 
BigDanT said:
No. We would go to a New Years 6 bowl and play for a 10th win.
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10 wins, conference championships, and New Year’s Day bowl game, all on the deck. What were y’all thinking about talking like CPJ should be fired if we had the money......smh
 
I'm shocked SHOCKED! that ESPN's FPI ranking seems so bad (coinflip on the BC/VPI game?).

Sagarin ratings for this weekend:

GT vs the fighting Fedoras - 78%
Kentucky vs Morons - 47%
UVA over Pitt - 80%
BC over VT - 76%
Miami over Duke - 41% (<-ööööing lulz)

So we've got approximately a 50% chance of making it out of this weekend alive in this insane wheel of destiny.

The difference between Sagarin's predictions and ESPN's is quite bigly.
 
GTlee said:
Stop. Bad for the conference. Let’s beat caveman, öööö heels, and thug U. Georgia will be a stretch but let’s see what happens. Go to a ho-hum bowl, start next year with good qbs, and a second year woody D
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Who the öööö are you people. If Clemson is playing Pitt in the ACCCG then sure, root for what’s best for the conference.

If us winning the ACC is on the table then I couldn’t give a single öööö what’s better for the conference. Let the ööööer burn while we add to the banners.
 
FatJacket said:
10 wins, conference championships, and New Year’s Day bowl game, all on the deck. What were y’all thinking about talking like CPJ should be fired if we had the money......smh
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ITS A BORING OFFENSE. We need to install a pro style offense with heavy play action pass to get football minded recruits. Our duty as a program is to prepare ATHLETES FOR THE NFL!!!! I don't care that we are on top of the charts for offensive production and that our student athletes are leaders in their industry. I don't care that CPJ is a multiple time coach of the year with numerous national titles.

I don't care how many games we win with this BORING OFFENSE IF WE CANNOT GET THE ATHLETES LIKE GEORGIA.
 
Allen Koholic said:
I'm shocked SHOCKED! that ESPN's FPI ranking seems so bad (coinflip on the BC/VPI game?).

Sagarin ratings for this weekend:

GT vs the fighting Fedoras - 78%
Kentucky vs Morons - 47%
UVA over Pitt - 80%
BC over VT - 76%
Miami over Duke - 41% (<-ööööing lulz)

So we've got approximately a 50% chance of making it out of this weekend alive in this insane wheel of destiny.

The difference between Sagarin's predictions and ESPN's is quite bigly.
Click to expand...

Well, Sagarin's "predictor" has BC as a 2.4 point favorite and Vegas has them as a 2 point favorite. That would seem to me to be closer to 50-50 than 76%. Especially considering we are 78% (76% FPI) and are 6 point favorites in Vegas and 9.4 point favorites in Sagarin predictor against the tarholes.

If BC was truly 76% favored to win, I would expect the spread would be in the 5.5-6.0 range and not 2.
 
It appears the various Sagarin processes/approaches differ quite a bit from one another and you were using the "eigenvector analysis" to pull those win percentages. I'm not quite sure how he shows Miami as a 7 point favorite (it is 9.5 in Vegas) in his "regular" method and then only gives Miami a 41% chance of winning in the "eigenvector" method. Something doesn't add up there.

If you use his "predictor/points" regular method, these are closer to typical Vegas odds and also appear to be much more in line with ESPN's FPI from a quick glance.
 
whenyousaybud said:
ITS A BORING OFFENSE. We need to install a pro style offense with heavy play action pass to get football minded recruits. Our duty as a program is to prepare ATHLETES FOR THE NFL!!!! I don't care that we are on top of the charts for offensive production and that our student athletes are leaders in their industry. I don't care that CPJ is a multiple time coach of the year with numerous national titles.

I don't care how many games we win with this BORING OFFENSE IF WE CANNOT GET THE ATHLETES LIKE GEORGIA.
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This is like the way Daniel Day-Lewis stays in character on set even when the cameras aren't rolling. You stay in character between threads.
 
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