We would have gone from 12 to 4? Jumping both 11-1 Big 12 teams, and all others in between in a season where we lost to both UNC and Duke? Dont think so
That scenario is a fallacy that GT fans conjured up
This is definitely not true. Of course we didn't control our own destiny, but going into the last week of the season, if some of the teams ahead of us lost, we definitely were among the handful of potential playoff teams, depending on how the committee evaluated our resume and 'game control' and whatnot. That's pretty impressive for CPJ to have us in that position, IMHO.
What we needed to happen that didn't happen was: we play well as we beat FSU convincingly, Wisconsin eekes out a win over Ohio St in a sloppy game, and KS St beats Baylor in any fashion. All three of those were reasonably possible. Here's how I figure...
(1) Let's not even discuss the possibility that Missouri might beat Alabama in the SECCG. (They lost 42-13.) So Alabama had a slot over us.
(2) Whether Oregon beat Arizona or vice versa, either team was going to be higher ranked than us, be a conf champ, and have one or two losses. So the Pac 12 champ had a slot over us, regardless who it was. Turned out to be Oregon.
That leaves two slots open.
(3) In the Big 12, there were three teams ranked above us: #4 Baylor at 10-1, #5 TCU at 10-1, and #9 KS St at 9-2. Baylor and KS St played each other the final weekend, but let's go ahead and assume TCU would beat Iowa St (which they did, 55-3). I concede that if TCU and Baylor both won (as they did), both had stronger resumes than we did — even though neither played anyone tough out of conference, and Baylor lost by 14 to an unranked WVU team. Nevertheless, having only one loss (and being conf co-champs) made both more attractive than a two-loss ACC champ GT. At that time we didn't know how the committee would feel about taking two teams from one conf — and of course it turned out the committee didn't think much of Big 12 scheduling — but even then I thought that was a stretch for us.
However, if KS St had beaten Baylor, then while TCU still has a strong case over us, KS St has two losses like we do and lost its high-profile SEC matchup. (KS St lost to #5 Auburn earlier in the year.) In my opinion, it's tough to see a two-loss KS St being the *second* Big 12 rep in the playoff over other two-loss conference champs. So in that scenario, probably TCU gets an invite over us but not KS St.
So with Alabama, Oregon and TCU in, there's still another slot we're fighting for.
(4) In the Big 10, if Ohio St won (as they did), they'd be a one-loss conf champ and hence have the advantage over us. But if Wisconsin had beaten Ohio State, they would be a two-loss conf champ like us. Wisconsin was only ranked one spot above us (#11 to #12) and their resume wasn't that strong. Like KS St, they lost their high-profile SEC matchup (lost to #13 LSU at the beginning of the season), whereas we'd just beaten #8 UGA. They also lost to an unranked Northwestern team, while we lost to a ranked Duke team and an unranked UNC team. (All three were relatively close games.) In the committee's eyes, the comparison may have come down to how convincingly they beat Ohio St and how convincingly we beat FSU. But is not at all far-fetched that we would have been chosen over Wisconsin, depending how each of us played in that final game.
(5) So that leaves either us or FSU. The question is, if we beat FSU, would we have been more likely to be taken than FSU? This is tough since FSU would have only had one loss. But would the committee choose FSU over GT when FSU just lost to GT in the conf champ game? That seems unlikely to me, though of course we'll never know. This is not like the situation this year with Alabama getting in, because Alabama was prevented from competing for its conf champ because of the Auburn tie-breaker loss. In our situation, FSU would have just lost its conf champ game. And especially if we played well, I don't think FSU would get the nod over us. (You also have to remember that nobody liked FSU that year. Their schedule was weak, and they'd limped to their perfect record. People were looking for an excuse to drop them.)
So there you have it. In my opinion, as I drove to Charlotte for the ACC CG, what I was hoping for was a strong GT victory, a weak Wisconsin victory, and a KS St victory. It could've happened.
PS. To give some further credence to my analysis, consider this. Of all the teams I've mentioned that lost on champ weekend — Arizona, Missouri, Kansas State, Wisconsin, GT — we're the only one whose ranking actually went *up* following our loss (from #12 to #10). People thought really well of us at the end of the year. Our playoff possibilities were not a pipe dream.
