POLL: What is the probability we beat Clemson in 2022

What is the probability we beat Clemson in 2022

  • Total voters
    176
  • Poll closed .
coit

coit

Bullseye
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
91,114
Mon, September 5 vs Clemson - 8 PM ET
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Next game: Western Carolina
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ESPN Pre-Season FPI Rank: 4
FPI Differential: -23.2
Win Probability: 5.7%

Let's get started, shall we? I posted a bit about the publishing schedule for this season in the 2022 Pre-Season Probability Poll Discussion thread.

Nothing like starting a pivotal season with one of the toughest two games on your schedule. The fanbase seems to be significantly divided between those who want CGC's head on a pike and those with seemingly unrealistic optimism.
 
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"Vad Lee" was added by a mod.

Any votes for Vad Lee will not be counted, obviously.
 
shouldn't there be a 1.0 option?

If I think the chance we beat some FCS team is 99%, that would round to 1.0.

then again, that is also an argument for a 0.0 option :lol2:
 
cyptomcat said:
shouldn't there be a 1.0 option?

If I think the chance we beat some FCS team is 99%, that would round to 1.0.

then again, that is also an argument for a 0.0 option :lol2:
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I settled in on 0.9 and 0.1 as the top and bottom awhile back. Going to 1 and 0 wouldn't really have an impact on the overall probabilities as all of the people that vote 0.9 for every game would vote 1.0 and the people that vote 0.1 for every game would vote 0.0.
 
I'd love to upset Clemson at MBS to start the year, but I'd also be concerned about a premature climax to the season. Maybe it's better to play well enough to make it close and then get better for 11 games and peak at game 12.
 
Let me see how we look after a few scrimmages in Fall camp and I will have a better idea. It's hard to judge with a scrimmage but that's all you get before game 1.
 
coit said:
You have 6 days.
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It would be interesting to see one of these done during the season along with pre-season. Once folks know where we stand coming out of camp with depth, injuries, etc., we can make a more educated guess. Especially during the season if any key injuries happen. Say for instance Sims looks good in the first 3 games and what we see of the backups isn't great, then he gets hurt against Ole Miss... that will definitely change what I think the probability of beating UCF the next week is. If it isn't too much, maybe you could put out a poll the week of each game during the season to close on Friday before each game, then have a "preseason poll" and a "season poll." I think people will be more accurate on a "season poll."
 
GoGATech said:
It would be interesting to see one of these done during the season along with pre-season. Once folks know where we stand coming out of camp with depth, injuries, etc., we can make a more educated guess. Especially during the season if any key injuries happen. Say for instance Sims looks good in the first 3 games and what we see of the backups isn't great, then he gets hurt against Ole Miss... that will definitely change what I think the probability of beating UCF the next week is. If it isn't too much, maybe you could put out a poll the week of each game during the season to close on Friday before each game, then have a "preseason poll" and a "season poll." I think people will be more accurate on a "season poll."
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I can give that a shot I guess. I think I did that when we were playing around with the Butthurt Futures probably 5 years ago.
 
coit said:
I can give that a shot I guess. I think I did that when we were playing around with the Butthurt Futures probably 5 years ago.
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Would also be interested in this. The butthurt futures were always a little too complicated for me to understand.
 
I think we hang with Clemson until the 4th quarter. I have them winning 24-13, but we play them tougher than some think. Sadly, it may be a false sense of us "getting better".
 
We need the same poll for game 2. Kerwin Bell is a legit coach and his offense is explosive. They are going to put up a lot of points against our defense.
 
OptionJacket said:
We need the same poll for game 2. Kerwin Bell is a legit coach and his offense is explosive. They are going to put up a lot of points against our defense.
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He's going to do a poll for every game then post the results and compare to the actual game result every week.
 
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