POLL: What is the probability we beat Clemson in 2022

[FightOn!Jacket]

Clemson is loaded at WR, RB and returns 4 starters along the OL who will only be better after “struggling“ to win 10 games. For as bad as Clemson was, they still won 10 games. Says a whole lot about the talent Clemson continues to land. They have the best DL in the country by far, and have depth. If DJ struggles, he will get benched for the 5* they just signed.

This poll sort of cracks me up. This entire site says 3-4 wins is a max, and yet there is optimism against Clemson? Kind of odd.

 

[jacket_sav]

Georgia Tech will beat Clemson, and the pundits will laud the virtues of Geoff Collins and the program--launching Tech into the top 20. Then, Tech will proceed to crap the bed and everyone will laugh at the weak ACC. The conference schools with collectively vote to do away with the gain of rights and everyone will bolt to whatever conference will take them. Tech will be end up in the AAC as a result, but not before Stansbury brexits the program from COFH.

 

[GTWannaBee]

Clemson is loaded at WR, RB and returns 4 starters along the OL who will only be better after “struggling“ to win 10 games. For as bad as Clemson was, they still won 10 games. Says a whole lot about the talent Clemson continues to land. They have the best DL in the country by far, and have depth. If DJ struggles, he will get benched for the 5* they just signed.

This poll sort of cracks me up. This entire site says 3-4 wins is a max, and yet there is optimism against Clemson? Kind of odd.

Not the entire site. In fact, very few on here say 3-4 wins is the max. Possible, yes, but not max.

 

[WracerX]

Clemson is loaded at WR, RB and returns 4 starters along the OL who will only be better after “struggling“ to win 10 games. For as bad as Clemson was, they still won 10 games. Says a whole lot about the talent Clemson continues to land. They have the best DL in the country by far, and have depth. If DJ struggles, he will get benched for the 5* they just signed.

This poll sort of cracks me up. This entire site says 3-4 wins is a max, and yet there is optimism against Clemson? Kind of odd.

Yeah, Clemson lost to the national champions, acc champions, and to a NCSt that won 9 games and ended ranked in the top 25.

We on the other hand have not beaten a team with a winning record in 3 years.

I don’t see us making a huge jump, but we could get to the level of beating teams with losing records and maybe beating a team that is hanging around even.

 

[GoGATech]

Yeah, Clemson lost to the national champions, acc champions, and to a NCSt that won 9 games and ended ranked in the top 25.

We on the other hand have not beaten a team with a winning record in 3 years.

I don’t see us making a huge jump, but we could get to the level of beating teams with losing records and maybe beating a team that is hanging around even.

Still not sold on Clemson for this season until I see them play. Sure they won 10 games still last year in what folks called a down year, but they didn't really dominate anybody like a team their caliber should. They beat USCe and Wake pretty handily late in the year and two small schools in UConn and SC State. Other than that they beat us by 6, beat a six win BC team by 6, beat five win Syracuse by only 3, beat five win FSU by 10, beat six win UL by 6. That's five games they could've easily lost. DJU only had over 200 yards passing 3 times against P5 teams, 220 against UL, 208 against Wake, 207 against BC. He doesn't scare me and a 5* true freshman that has never played a down of college football yet certainly doesn't at this point in time. They are breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball also. If we have finally turned the corner with the staff hires, transfers, etc., I believe we have more than a punchers chance against them. If they show that they are back to the Clemson of the last several years, maybe not, but I have to see it first.

 

[GT76]

Mon, September 5 vs Clemson - 8 PM ET
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Next game: Western Carolina
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ESPN Pre-Season FPI Rank: 107
FPI Differential: +11.9
Win Probability: 86.10%

Let's get started, shall we?

Would one of you brainiacs please explain this part of the post:

ESPN Pre-Season FPI Rank: 107
FPI Differential: +11.9
Win Probability: 86.10%

The subject is GT vs Clemson, but we have an FPI of -0.4 with a ranking of 66, Clemson FPI is 22.8 and has a ranking of 4, WCU does not have an FPI that I can find. Our win probability against Clemson is 5.7%, against WCU 99.2% (uh oh).

So I see for GT vs Clemson being the subject:
ESPN FPI rank: 66 GT, 4 Clemson
FPI differential: 23.2
Win probability: 5.7% GT, 94.3% Clemson
Not that it will sway any votes, but what's with the numbers?

 

[FightOn!Jacket]

Still not sold on Clemson for this season until I see them play. Sure they won 10 games still last year in what folks called a down year, but they didn't really dominate anybody like a team their caliber should. They beat USCe and Wake pretty handily late in the year and two small schools in UConn and SC State. Other than that they beat us by 6, beat a six win BC team by 6, beat five win Syracuse by only 3, beat five win FSU by 10, beat six win UL by 6. That's five games they could've easily lost. DJU only had over 200 yards passing 3 times against P5 teams, 220 against UL, 208 against Wake, 207 against BC. He doesn't scare me and a 5* true freshman that has never played a down of college football yet certainly doesn't at this point in time. They are breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball also. If we have finally turned the corner with the staff hires, transfers, etc., I believe we have more than a punchers chance against them. If they show that they are back to the Clemson of the last several years, maybe not, but I have to see it first.

You’re glossing over the fact that they barely lost to UGA holding them to a season low across the board on offense. They had injuries galore on D, and despite a brand new inexperienced OL won 10 games. That included the final 6 of the season.

Now they have an experienced OL to go along with all the RB and WR talent on offense. If DJ improves at all, they’ll be back to 40+ a game.

Add in the fact that they could have the best D in the country against a GT makeshift OL in game 1…Not sure where the optimism is coming from. Again, this board thinks Collins is awful, etc, but feel they can hang with a much superior team? Very strange.

 

[GoGATech]

You’re glossing over the fact that they barely lost to UGA holding them to a season low across the board on offense. They had injuries galore on D, and despite a brand new inexperienced OL won 10 games. That included the final 6 of the season.

Now they have an experienced OL to go along with all the RB and WR talent on offense. If DJ improves at all, they’ll be back to 40+ a game.

Add in the fact that they could have the best D in the country against a GT makeshift OL in game 1…Not sure where the optimism is coming from. Again, this board thinks Collins is awful, etc, but feel they can hang with a much superior team? Very strange.

UGA had an inept JT Daniels playing QB that entire game. Jordan Yates had better stats against Clemson than he did. That's the only reason the score was close in that game. Clemson had TWO rushing yards against them. Clemson's defense might have suffered many injuries throughout the season but they were relatively healthy when we played them IIRC and still put up more offensive yards than they did, had more TOP, and 20 first downs. We just couldn't score. Hopefully the new OC is better at scoring than our old one. I still believe we would've pulled that one out with Sims healthy.

 

[00Burdell]

We are going to beat Clemson.

 

[FightOn!Jacket]

UGA had an inept JT Daniels playing QB that entire game. Jordan Yates had better stats against Clemson than he did. That's the only reason the score was close in that game. Clemson had TWO rushing yards against them. Clemson's defense might have suffered many injuries throughout the season but they were relatively healthy when we played them IIRC and still put up more offensive yards than they did, had more TOP, and 20 first downs. We just couldn't score. Hopefully the new OC is better at scoring than our old one. I still believe we would've pulled that one out with Sims healthy.

Again, and what does any of last year’s loss have to do with this year? This board thinks Collins sucks, the D is inept, etc. All of this going against the 2nd best team GT will face all year. And of course GT couldn’t score last year, it was against an elite D, which is even better this year. The change of OC / QB coach / analyst should all help, but the problem remains what it’s been going back to the final few years under Johnson to Collins. The OL & DL are just not there to compete with the good to great teams. GT in theory should be better along the OL with the portal additions, but that’s more hope than anything else. The 3 OL from Bama, Clemson and UK were all backups for the most part. Kid from Kansas is a project type addition. The DL lost their best player to Ole Miss. Follow that up with 2 portal commits that changed their minds and went to USC and Auburn instead.

And FWIW, JT Daniels was not the reason why the game was close. Clemson’s D was dominant last year. But when their O could not stay on the field, they couldn’t hold up in the 4th quarter. The only loss that was lopsided was against Pitt. They lost in OT to NCSU. So in a down year, Clemson was still just a few plays from being 12-1.

Now flip that. How close was GT to even being 6-6?

 

[WracerX]

Still not sold on Clemson for this season until I see them play. Sure they won 10 games still last year in what folks called a down year, but they didn't really dominate anybody like a team their caliber should. They beat USCe and Wake pretty handily late in the year and two small schools in UConn and SC State. Other than that they beat us by 6, beat a six win BC team by 6, beat five win Syracuse by only 3, beat five win FSU by 10, beat six win UL by 6. That's five games they could've easily lost. DJU only had over 200 yards passing 3 times against P5 teams, 220 against UL, 208 against Wake, 207 against BC. He doesn't scare me and a 5* true freshman that has never played a down of college football yet certainly doesn't at this point in time. They are breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball also. If we have finally turned the corner with the staff hires, transfers, etc., I believe we have more than a punchers chance against them. If they show that they are back to the Clemson of the last several years, maybe not, but I have to see it first.

Five games they could have lost is five wins. They were horrible on offense until late in the year. Their QB looked the part of someone adjusting to the speed of the college game (plus he had terrible mechanics).

They could fall back with new coordinators, that is true. But they also could have hired pretty much whoever they wanted. So I think it is unlikely they fall back too much.

We can always hope, we are fans after all. I just don’t see this as one of our wins even in a best case scenario.

 

[GoGATech]

Again, and what does any of last year’s loss have to do with this year?

You're using Clemson's game against UGA last year as the main measuring stick for them but I can't use our game against them as one?

This board thinks Collins sucks, the D is inept, etc. All of this going against the 2nd best team GT will face all year. And of course GT couldn’t score last year, it was against an elite D, which is even better this year.

It doesn't matter what this board thinks. There are also many that think we are capable of turning it around with the changes made. Their D should be better this year but so should our O.

The change of OC / QB coach / analyst should all help, but the problem remains what it’s been going back to the final few years under Johnson to Collins. The OL & DL are just not there to compete with the good to great teams. GT in theory should be better along the OL with the portal additions, but that’s more hope than anything else. The 3 OL from Bama, Clemson and UK were all backups for the most part. Kid from Kansas is a project type addition. The DL lost their best player to Ole Miss. Follow that up with 2 portal commits that changed their minds and went to USC and Auburn instead.

OL and DL should both be better. OL was patchwork at best last year with guys getting injured left and right. We may not have as much experience on the OL but we have more talent there now and the experience we had didn't seem too great to me so that should be an upgrade. The 3 transfers you mention all were just in their 2nd year at each location and would just now be seeing PT there anyway, they weren't just backups, they had upperclassmen ahead of them. Franklin was baptized by fire last year and got some good game experience.

As far as DL goes, we should be better there as well. Everybody keeps saying we lost our best DL player to Ole Miss, but Kyle Kennard quietly graded out as our best DE last year. Keion White is healthy this year. Sylvain is healthy again. Josh Robinson hit a big growth spurt and started showing flashes last year. Kevin Harris has had a full year in the program now and maybe he will live up to the billing. At DT we have Zeek back healthy with a year of PT, strength training and development, TK back fully healthy, Makius Scott, Akelo Stone, and D'Quan Douse all with another year under their belts and we have transfer Daniel Carson for depth as well as two 4* freshman that could see PT.

And FWIW, JT Daniels was not the reason why the game was close. Clemson’s D was dominant last year. But when their O could not stay on the field, they couldn’t hold up in the 4th quarter. The only loss that was lopsided was against Pitt. They lost in OT to NCSU. So in a down year, Clemson was still just a few plays from being 12-1.

Now flip that. How close was GT to even being 6-6?

Sure it went to OT but NC State dominated Clemson last year. They held Clemson to 214 offensive yards and while they had 386 yards, 31 first downs, and DOUBLE the time of possession Clemson had. They just couldn't score either. Had a fumble while driving, missed 2 FGs that game also although they were long attempts.

As far as GT getting to 6-6? If we had any semblance of a kicking game and could score in the red zone we could've easily won 6 last year. All it takes is one FG against NIU, score one TD on how many goal line attempts vs Clemson? Make the FG against Miami and we're tied. That could potentially be 6 there. How many times did we not even try FG's inside 30 yards because we couldn't make them? I know twice against VT in the 4th quarter.

All I'm saying is it there's plenty of reasons that we can be optimistic about the upcoming season and even against Clemson. We'll see soon enough if any of the changes made this off-season worked or not. Maybe the will, maybe not.

 

[madRazor]

I'd love to upset Clemson at MBS to start the year, but I'd also be concerned about a premature climax to the season. Maybe it's better to play well enough to make it close and then get better for 11 games and peak at game 12.

Sometimes it can be hard* to separate seemingly unrelated aspects of our lives.

*I now owe royalties to your mom, I'll add it to my tab

 

[ibeeballin]

I have to assume they have fixed their offense issues. I expect them to hang at least 28 on us. Conversely, I'll be surprised if we put up more than 17.

This is the weird logic that simply amazes

What assumption can be made that they fixed their offense but we haven’t fixed our offense?

 

[WracerX]

This is the weird logic that simply amazes

What assumption can be made that they fixed their offense but we haven’t fixed our offense?

Their offensive production in the second half of the 2021 season was dramatically better than the first half. Ours improved as well, but not as much on the whole. The two shutouts obviously made the second half average much worse, but we did show some life on O in the second half.

Their offensive woes appeared to be primarily the QB, who did show improvement over the season. Our offensive woes stemmed from poor line play and predictable playcalling (obviously related). Basically, we have bigger question marks than they do.

 

[originalwombat]

This is the weird logic that simply amazes

What assumption can be made that they fixed their offense but we haven’t fixed our offense?

Because they do things better than us.

 

[GoldZ]

Clemson is loaded at WR, RB and returns 4 starters along the OL who will only be better after “struggling“ to win 10 games. For as bad as Clemson was, they still won 10 games. Says a whole lot about the talent Clemson continues to land. They have the best DL in the country by far, and have depth. If DJ struggles, he will get benched for the 5* they just signed.

This poll sort of cracks me up. This entire site says 3-4 wins is a max, and yet there is optimism against Clemson? Kind of odd.

Still odd, but there is history....Bama '80 (win), UT '17 (close), Clemson '21(close). First games seem ripe for mega upsets.

 

[ibeeballin]

Because they do things better than us.

Like addressing their depth issues by not utilizing the portal?

 

[smokey_wasp]

I am giving us a 30 percent chance. Clemson should still be pretty good but I think their run as a playoff-caliber team may be over. As ibeeballin mentions, Dabo is reluctant to use the portal, which even Saban is doing now. Of course they should be heavily favored, but new coordinators, no generational QB as far as we know yet, first game jitters. We have a chance.

 

[clapper]

Still odd, but there is history....Bama '80 (win), UT '17 (close), Clemson '21(close). First games seem ripe for mega upsets.

Well, this is an odd post. We lost to Bama in '80, beat them in '81. It was our only win of the year. The other two were losses, plus Clemson was not our opening game, it was NIU, which would be considered an upset for them under any other coach. And we were cumulatively 8-23 for those three years outside those games.