POLL: What is the probability we beat Florida State in 2024

What is the probability we beat Florida State in 2024?

  • Total voters
    162
  • Poll closed .
coit

coit

Bullseye
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
90,632
Sat, August 24 vs Florida State - 12:00 PM ET

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Next game: Georgia State
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ESPN Pre-Season FPI Rank: 11
FPI Differential: -13.0
Win Probability: 6.9%

Back to Ireland for another season opener! At least this one won't start at 7 AM EDT. I posted a bit about the publishing schedule for this season in the 2024 Pre-Season Probability Poll Discussion thread.

In the Portal era, will any of these pre-season projections really be all that accurate. I like our chances.
 
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I already spent this year's prize money. Might as well cancel the pole.
 
I think we have a decent chance in week 0, with FSU over-confident and starting out the season with a lot of new players, but it's still more likely to be a competitive loss.
 
Can I get a refresher on why probabilities can't round to 1.0 or 0.0? Why would 0.99 round down to 0.9 but 0.09 round up to 0.1?
 
justafan said:
Can I get a refresher on why probabilities can't round to 1.0 or 0.0? Why would 0.99 round down to 0.9 but 0.09 round up to 0.1?
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The old software would only allow 10 options maximum. So you couldn’t do 1.0 through 0.0, as that was 11 options. So this is the way it’s been done.

Can I get a refresher on why people care so much? Every damn year, the same question.
 
Dirty Jacket said:
Can I change my vote? I fat fingered 0.7 but this is a 0.9 for me.
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I think as the game approaches and focus shifts from brand / 2023 records to actual game analysis we’re gonna start getting some love in this matchup. They have a talent advantage. But…

- Their roster has turned over a ton and we have a lot of returning production. Highlighted most with the matchup of our OL vs their DL. If we can come out and establish a run game then they’re in trouble.

- DJU has been good at times and bad at times. Not sure he will dominate even if he has picked up the offense / meshed with receivers already (which is no guarantee).

- Weather was an issue last time in Dublin. That’s an equalizer and our special teams are solid if the game devolves to that.

- Week 0 overseas, who knows how teenagers will react. I like that we have people in the AA who have been through it already.
 
gtrower said:
I think as the game approaches and focus shifts from brand / 2023 records to actual game analysis we’re gonna start getting some love in this matchup. They have a talent advantage. But…

- Their roster has turned over a ton and we have a lot of returning production. Highlighted most with the matchup of our OL vs their DL. If we can come out and establish a run game then they’re in trouble.

- DJU has been good at times and bad at times. Not sure he will dominate even if he has picked up the offense / meshed with receivers already (which is no guarantee).

- Weather was an issue last time in Dublin. That’s an equalizer and our special teams are solid if the game devolves to that.

- Week 0 overseas, who knows how teenagers will react. I like that we have people in the AA who have been through it already.
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If I’m FSU, with a new QB, I line up and try to pound the Jackets. I think of the UGA game when we closed to within a TD with a few minutes left in the game, we knew what UGA was going to do but could not stop them.
 
coit said:
The old software would only allow 10 options maximum. So you couldn’t do 1.0 through 0.0, as that was 11 options. So this is the way it’s been done.

Can I get a refresher on why people care so much? Every damn year, the same question.
Click to expand...
IMG_5175.gif
 
FSU also had more talent when a clown led team, led by a QB bust managed to beat FSU in the first game of the year. GT is more talented and much better coached this time.
 
I think we can beat them. Their QB will be new. We’ll see if there are any lingering side effects of the bowl beat down.

In their favor, we will have a new defensive scheme and I expect there to be some broken coverages on our side.
 
If our D-Line shows up, we can take 'em.

I expect the first half of the L'ville game and the 2nd half of the UCF game.
 
I see a few people harping on FSU run game. I wanna dig into that a little more and say I'm more concerned with them running it with DJU. Big tall QBs have given our run defense fits. I think back to Logan Thomas at VT.

If they can run it on us with him it will be a long day.
 
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